Der USA Bären-Thread

Es gibt ‘nen neuen Newsletter von Gary Dorsch mit dem Titel “ Global Exodus from the US Dollar in Motion“.
Dorsch zieht in diesem Artikel u.a. eine eindeutige Verbindung von der Ausweitung der Geldmenge M3 durch die FED zu den Anstiegen an den Börsen.
Desweiteren hat Hank Paulson kürzlich den Top-Brokerhäusern einen dezenten Hinweis gegeben, die Kurse der Homebuilder nun nicht mehr weiter zu drücken, der Boden im Housing - Sektor wäre in etwa erreicht.

Ich las letztens hier im Board, die FED wäre eine „Öffentliche Institution“. Ist sie das wirklich ? Ich habe da allerdings meine erheblichen Zweifel, Kommentare diesbezüglich erwünscht!

..... Since the Bernanke Fed discontinued the decades-old reporting of the broad M3 money supply in March of 2006, the growth rate of M3 has accelerated from an 8% rate to a sizzling 13.7% clip, its fastest in more than three decades. The Bernanke Fed is preventing borrowing rates from rising at a time of explosive loan demand for US corporate mergers and takeovers, by rapidly increasing the US money supply.

The Bank of America, Citigroup, and JP Morgan led US loan underwriting in the first half of 2007, which totaled $943 billion, up 5.4% from a year earlier. Global mergers and takeovers soared to an astronomical $2.78 trillion during the first six months of the year, up 51% from a year ago, led by $1.05 trillion in the US alone. Buy-outs by private takeover artists soared 23% to a record high of $568 billion in H’1 2007, with 35% of US takeovers, and 13% of European takeovers financed with debt.

But one sector of the US stock market which has not responded positively to the Fed’s heavy injections of monetary steroids has been the home builders, once regarded as a top bull-market leader from 2003 thru August 2005. The Dow Jones Home Construction Index, a yardstick that measures home builder performance, is off 25% this year, and is flirting with key support at the 525 level, which if penetrated, would be especially bearish.

On July 2nd, Paulson sent a discreet signal to Wall Street power-brokers to avoid dumping the home builders. “In terms of housing, it’s had a significant impact on the economy. No one is forecasting when, with any degree of clarity, that the upturn in housing is going to come, other than it’s at or near the bottom.

http://sirchartsalot.com/article.php?id=61
 

Wochenend-Wellenreiter vom 07. Juli 2007
Hochzeiten, Sommergefühle und Schlüsselindikatoren

Wenn die Schlagzeilen lauten: Heiratswelle am 7.7. bringt überlastete Standesämter; Koch fordert SPD auf, Beck abzulösen; Pamplona-Premiere fordert dutzende Verletzte; Williams gewinnt Wimbledon; Klöden im Tour de France-Prolog zweiter; Künstler singen für Live-Earth und dabei entsteht viel CO2; Neuschwanstein fällt bei Weltwunder durch, dann wissen wir: Der Nachrichten-Sommer ist über uns gekommen.

An den Börsen ist es ähnlich. Betrachten wir nur die letzten vier Vorwahljahre. Die Gewinne wurden zum Großteil im ersten Halbjahr erzielt.

Bild 1

Diese Aussage lässt sich auch dann aufrecht erhalten, wenn man sämtliche Vorwahljahre seit 1899 in einem Durchschnittsverlauf zusammenfasst.

Bild 2

Es erscheint unrealistisch, von der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2007 ähnliche Steigerungen an den Börsen zu erwarten wie zwischen Januar und Juni. Zumal das Jahr 2007 ein 7er-Jahr ist und solche Jahre im Herbst ziemlich regelmäßig Abschläge mit sich gebracht haben. Nachfolgend ein Chart, der den Durchschnittverlauf von 7er-Jahren zeigt, die gleichzeitig Vorwahljahre sind.

Bild 3

Vor 10 Jahren hatte die Asienkrise die Weltmärkte fest im Griff. An den Finanzmärkten geht die Angst vor einer Wiederholung um, heißt es in Berichten wie diesem: http://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/artikel/...,492425,00.html.

Man kann die Angst noch ein wenig steigern, wenn man eine Null dranhängt und 100 Jahre zurückgeht. Damals wurde J.P. Morgan als Retter der Wall Street in der Panik von 1907 berühmt. Das Jahr 1907 brachte all das auf Tablett, was ein Bärenherz höher schlagen lässt: Im Frühjahr kam die erste Panik, im Sommer scheiterte die Begebung einer größeren Anleihe, die Rohstoffmärkte gerieten unter Druck und schließlich brachen Banken zusammen. Der entsprechende Artikel ist hier nachzulesen:
http://www.zeitenwende.ch/page/index.cfm?SelNavID=1271

So lohnenswert es ist, sich diese Ereignisse in Erinnerung zu rufen: Der Verlaufsvergleich zwischen 2007 und 1907 zeigt, dass das Jahr 2007 bisher eine ungleich deutlichere Trendstärke aufweist als das Jahr 1907.

Bild 4

Die Gemeinsamkeit ist das Vorhandensein einer Frühjahrspanik: Die Panik vom 27.02.2007 war in jeder Hinsicht ungewöhnlich und dürfte durchaus mit der Panik vom 14.03.1907 vergleichbar sein.

Doch bevor man sich allzu sehr auf die Bärenseite schlägt, sollte man sich vergegen-wärtigen, dass die aktuelle Marktlage einen S&P 500 sieht, dessen mittelfristiger Aufwärtstrend intakt ist. Der Index bewegt sich nur wenige Punkte unterhalb seines Allzeithochs, während die Tech-Indizes angesprungen sind und neue Mehrjahreshochs erzielen konnten.

Dafür, dass sich die US-Indizes dem Verlaufsmuster des „verhexten 7er-Jahres“ anpassen, reicht der Beinahe-Zusammenbruch zweier Bear Stearns Fonds nicht. Es braucht schon einige weitere Kalamitäten. Ob es dazu kommt, kann niemand mit Gewissheit sagen. Doch es erscheint gewiss, dass der Stress-Level im US-Finanzsystem in diesem Jahr höher ist als in den Jahren zuvor (siehe vergangene Wochenend-Ausgabe). Im Hintergrund wird bereits eifrig geflickschustert. Ob es reicht, um über die kritische Periode August bis Oktober ohne größere Blessuren davonzukommen und somit den Normalverlauf eines Vorwahljahres fortzusetzen? Die Schlüsselindikatoren sind der US-Hausbau-Index, das Verhalten der US-Broker und der Subprime-Banken sowie die Verläufe des japanischen Yen und der US-Anleihen am langen Ende.

Robert Rethfeld
Wellenreiter-Invest

Wir schauen hinter die Märkte und betrachten diese mit exklusiven Charts.

P.S. Ein kostenloses 14tägiges Schnupperabonnement erhalten Sie unter www.wellenreiter-invest.de
 

1535/40 (W fertig)ist wohl die entscheidente Marke(Stunde hat noch etwas Luft).
Divergenzen bei einigen Indikatoren welche zwar noch nichts bedeuten müssen aber wenn SP erneut am letzten Hoch scheitert dann sollten sich die Verkaufssignale im Wochenchart erstmal durchsetzten.

 

Denke auch, dass das ein ziemlich sicheres Short-Signal wäre. Umgekehrt ein ziemlich sicheres (kurzfistig!) Long-Signal. Es bleibt also spannend.  

Höchst interessant fand ich den Artikel in der SZ vom Samstag zur enorm hohen Liquidität von staatlichen Fonds. Den Staaten reiche es nicht mehr aus, in Staatsanleihen anzulegen - sie bildeten zunehmend staatliche Investmentfonds: "Mit geschätzten 2,5 Billionen Dollar verwalten Staatsfonds mehr Geld als die umstrittenen Hedge-Fonds - und man weiß bei ihnen ebenso wenig über die Anlagestrategien" (SZ vom 7./8. Juli, Seite 25). Der Artikel ist online nur "käuflich" erhältlich, die Graphik möchte ich Euch jedoch nicht vorenthalten. 

Der Econnomist leitartikelt diese Woche über Hedge-Fonds, das Titelbild sagt eigentlich alles. Da der ganze Artikel frei verfügbar ist, begnüge ich mich diesmal mit Ausschnitten.

(...)

At the same time as providing a critique of the equity markets, private equity has helped turn illiquid bank-dominated debt markets into highways for delivering cheap credit. It has shown that debt can finance takeovers on an unimagined scale and in industries, including finance and technology, once thought beyond its scope.

A storm is coming

The power of this debt-market transformation looks as if it is about to be tested. Rising long-term interest rates have pushed up the cost of borrowing. Sensing a shift in the economics of the industry, creditors around the world have started questioning the easy money offered to private-equity firms, which feed off risky types of debt. Last week US Foodservice, an American wholesaler being bought by private-equity groups, cancelled a $3.6 billion bond-and-loan deal when lenders balked at the lack of protection they were being offered. In Australia, private-equity firms pulled out at the last minute from the country's biggest takeover, complaining of the high cost of debt. This week the sale of a British retailer fell into confusion, after two private-equity bidders withdrew. The prospect of dwindling returns makes buy-out firms reluctant to club together to buy the big companies they covet; banks, meanwhile, are growing wary of offering their own capital as “bridge” finance. Shares in Blackstone, a private-equity chieftain that listed on the stockmarket last month, have fallen below their offer price—though it is still worth a tidy $32 billion.

 

That's not to say their bull run is over yet. Following Blackstone's lead, big buy-out firms continue to tap the public markets for fresh capital. There may well be a few more record-breaking takeovers. But if these squalls continue, it is not just private-equity investors who will shiver. Banks have raked in profit from the buy-out industry's appetite for loans and deal-making advice. Stockmarkets have climbed on takeover fever; more than a third of all deals in America so far this year were done by private-equity firms (in 2000, the last such takeover boom, it was a meagre 4%). High share prices make targets more expensive, and private equity is still raising record amounts of money, meaning more competition—and higher prices—for acquisitions, lowering potential returns. Private equity has scaled amazing heights; but its headiest days are probably over.

 

______________

ignorance is bliss

 

Nach meiner Kenntnis leihen sich PE-Fonds zunächst ca. 30 % des Geldes für eine Übernahme von großen, am Gewinn beteiligten Geldgebern wie Pensionskassen. Das ist dann ihr "Eigenkapital" oder Startkapital. Die verbleibenden 70 % holen sie sich vom Anleihemarkt durch die Herausgabe von Anleihen, oft Junk-Bonds (Rating BBB und tiefer). Diese Bonds will ihnen aber nun niemand mehr abkaufen, weil durch die faulen Bonds im Subprime-Housing-Sektor Risikoscheu aufgekommen ist. In der Folge können die PE-Deals nicht mehr durchgezogen werden, obwohl das Startkapital (die 30 % von den Pensionsfonds) bereits in der Kasse war.

Weiterhin schreibt der Economist völlig zutreffend, dass auch die steigenden Langfristzinsen dafür sorgen, dass sich der PE-Boom dem Ende zuneigt. Denn nach den Zinsen für langlaufende Staatsanleihen bemessen sich die Kreditkosten.

Die Zinsrendite der 30-jährigen US-Staatsanleihen befindet sich in einem steilen Uptrend:
 

für Q2 und noch schlechterer Ausblick für Q3
Aktie aktuell vorbörslich -13,5%

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070709/lexmark_outlook.html?.v=1  

Handelsblatt
Trendwende bei japanischen Renten
Von Ansgar Krekeler, technischer Analyst der WGZ Bank


Der Trend zu steigenden Renditen an den internationalen Anleihemärkten scheint in den vergangenen Wochen nur kurz unterbrochen worden zu sein. Sowohl in Euroland als auch in den USA deuten die übergeordneten Chartmuster weitere Aufwärtsrisiken an.


DÜSSELDORF. Weniger im Fokus der Investoren steht dagegen der japanische Rentenmarkt. Angesichts einer bereits neunjährigen Phase von Renditen für 10-jährige japanische Staatsanleihen unter zwei Prozent, ist das gesunkene Interesse wenig verwunderlich. Dennoch vollzieht sich hier still und heimlich eine langfristige Trendwende, deren Auswirkungen auf die Finanzmärkte unterschätzt werden dürfte. Der Renditetiefstand wurde im Juni 2003 markiert, als die Verzinsung der 10-jährigen Anleihen im Zuge der Deflation bis auf 0,45 Prozent fiel.

Im folgenden Jahr kam es zum ersten, starken Aufwärtsimpuls. Dabei stiegen die 10-jährigen Zinsen bis nahe an die zwei Prozent-Grenze, die bereits in den Jahren 1999 und 2000 die Obergrenze von Aufwärtsbewegungen bildete. Seit Mitte 2004 pendeln die Renditen nun auf den ersten Blick seitwärts hin und her. Zunächst zwischen 1,20 Prozent und 2 Prozent und später zwischen 1,50 Prozent und 2 Prozent. Bei genauer Betrachtung lässt sich allerdings feststellen, dass die Konsolidierung der vergangenen Jahre nach oben verzerrt ist und innerhalb eines aufwärts gerichteten Trendkanals verläuft. Dieses Marktverhalten ist als Zeichen übergeordneter Stärke zu interpretieren.

Entsprechend der Erwartung haben sich analoge Chartmuster in der Vergangenheit häufig dynamisch nach oben entladen. Im Fall der japanischen Rendite ist das Schlüsselniveau bei 2 Prozent nun die mögliche Trigger-Marke, wobei ein Bruch des Widerstands nur eine Frage der Zeit zu sein scheint. Im Laufe der folgenden zwölf Monate sollte idealtypisch ein deutlicher Renditeanstieg bis etwa 2 Prozent folgen. Da gleichzeitig eine langfristige Bodenbildung abgeschlossen werden würde, dürfte es sich hierbei jedoch nur um ein Etappenziel in Richtung einer Normalisierung des Zinsniveaus handeln.

---

Chartanalyse: Rendite japanischer 10-jähriger Staatsanleihen.
 

U.S. Housing Sales to Tumble to Six-Year Low on Rates, Defaults

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. home sales in 2007 will drop to the lowest level since the start of the five-year housing boom in 2001 as mortgage rates and foreclosures increase, according to a forecast by Freddie Mac.

Sales of new and previously owned homes probably will total 6.28 million, according to the world's second-largest mortgage buyer. That would be the lowest since 6.20 million in 2001. Residential lending will drop to $2.75 trillion, the lowest since 2002, the McLean, Virginia-based company said in today's forecast.

Buyers are finding it more difficult to finance purchases because of higher mortgage rates and stricter lending standards, Freddie Mac said. The average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed rate home loan probably will be 6.7 percent this quarter, according to the forecast. That's the highest level of 2007 and half a percentage point above the 6.2 percent average of the first three months of the year.

``Several risks -- the elevated levels of homes for sale, recent increases in mortgage rates, and rising foreclosures of subprime borrowers -- point to continued weakness in the months ahead,'' Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said in the forecast.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...20601087&sid=az8bx8dK06AI&refer=home  

U.S. Rebound May Be Bumpier Than Fed Expects as Credit Tightens

uly 9 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy's take-off from a near standstill in the first quarter may prove bumpier than the Federal Reserve and many on Wall Street expect as tighter credit acts as a headwind to growth.

What started as a financing squeeze in the subprime-mortgage market now threatens other parts of the economy. Borrowing costs for companies are climbing as banks and investors demand more for their money. Consumers feel the pinch from rising interest rates and sagging house prices.

As a result, the economy may struggle to achieve the 2-1/2 to 3 percent growth rate that most forecasters inside and outside the Fed have penciled in for the second half of the year. Instead, economists at International Strategy & Investment Group, UBS AG and Commerzbank AG see growth below 2 percent as consumer spending slows and business investment fails to pick up under the weight of tougher financing conditions.

``We're just starting round two,'' says Andy Laperriere, managing director at ISI in Washington, who was among the first to highlight the economic impact of tougher home-loan terms. ``Tighter credit appears to be spreading beyond the mortgage market.''

So far, economists with a gloomy outlook are in the minority. If they are correct, stock-market investors are in for a disappointment.

Near-Record Highs

Shaking off the hit from last month's rise in bond yields, investors have bid share prices back to near-record highs on hopes of a smooth lift-off for the economy. The Standard & Poor's 500 index closed July 6 at 1530.44, compared with the record 1539.18 reached on June 4.

``The market is overlooking the slowing effect'' of higher borrowing costs, says Alan Blinder, a former Fed vice chairman who's now a professor at Princeton University in New Jersey. He says policy makers may have to cut rates this year to keep the expansion on track. Most economists expect no change in rates this year.

After growing in the first quarter at an annual rate of 0.7 percent, the slowest since the end of 2002, the U.S. economy probably rebounded last quarter, expanding at a 2.8 percent pace, according to Blue Chip Economic Indicators. The consensus forecast calls for growth to stay close to that level in the second half, bearing out the Fed's forecast of expansion continuing at a ``moderate'' pace.

Benign Outlook

That benign outlook was buttressed by economic statistics released last week as manufacturing and service companies reported stronger business in June, while the government said unemployment held at 4.5 percent.

The consensus forecast of a trouble-free second half rests on three pillars: a diminishing drag from the housing market, consumer-spending growth of 2-1/2 to 3 percent and stronger business investment. Tighter credit poses a risk to all three.

``Financial conditions have become less stimulative,'' says James O'Sullivan, senior economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. ``That will keep growth soft.''

Borrowing costs are rising throughout the economy following an increase in defaults on subprime loans and the near-collapse last month of two hedge funds run by Bear Stearns Cos. That's prompted banks and investors to take a broader look at the risks they are taking with their money, including the credit they extend to companies.

High-Yield Spread

Investors now demand almost 3 percentage points in extra interest to own U.S. high-yield bonds rather than government debt, compared with a record low of 2.41 percentage points on June 5, Merrill Lynch & Co. data show. That's the fastest increase in spreads since April 2005.

``The credit cycle is peaking,'' says John Lonski, chief economist at ratings company Moody's Investors Service in New York. He sees the high-yield spread rising to 4 percentage points by the end of 2007.

The tougher corporate-credit conditions are starting to bite. In the past two weeks, more than a dozen companies postponed or restructured debt sales.

Among those postponed: a $350 million note sale by Magnum Coal Co., a West Virginia-based coal producer, and a $500 million bond sale by Kia Motors Corp., South Korea's second largest automaker. Kia planned to use some of the money to help finance construction of a U.S. factory employing 2,500 in Georgia.

Rising Costs

Home buyers face rising borrowing costs as a 51 basis-point increase in yields on 10-year Treasury notes during the last eight weeks feeds into the mortgage market. The U.S. average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 6.63 percent at the start of July, up from 6.15 percent at the beginning of May, according to Freddie Mac, the second-largest source of money for home loans.

Lenders are not only more cautious about extending credit to low-income borrowers, they've also grown stingier with mortgage loans to more credit-worthy customers, says David Seiders, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders in Washington.

Stuart Miller, chief executive officer of Miami-based Lennar Corp., the largest U.S. homebuilder, sees no sign of a housing recovery.

``The supply of homes available for purchase has continued to climb, while at the same time demand has been sharply reduced,'' he said in a June 26 conference call.

That's pushing down prices. Home values in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell 2.1 percent in April from a year ago, the biggest decline in at least six years, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.

`Contagion and Contamination'

``The contagion and contamination I'm most concerned about is what effect this will have on the consumer,'' says William Rhodes, senior vice chairman at Citigroup Inc. in New York.

The biggest worry is that falling home prices and rising interest rates will undermine consumer spending, the bedrock of the economy.

Consumers are showing some signs of stress. They fell behind on loan payments in the first quarter at the highest rate since 2001, the American Bankers Association reported.

Retailers feel the fall-out. The International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS Securities last week cut their forecast for June sales growth at retailers to 1.5 to 2 percent, from 2 percent.

``It's soft,'' says Michael Niemira, chief economist at the council. ``More retailers are feeling that something has changed after years of pretty healthy demand.''

Auto dealerships share the pain. Automakers sold cars and light trucks at an annual rate of 15.6 million last month, the lowest for June since 1997, says Autodata Corp. of Woodcliff Lake, New Jersey.

Bill Gross, who manages the world's largest bond fund, says consumer spending will take a hit as the credit squeeze widens.

``The problem in terms of subprimes extends out into other credit areas and produces a cool wind'' that the economy has to fight against, says Gross, who heads Pacific Investment Management Co.'s $103 billion Total Return Fund in Newport Beach, California.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...20601109&sid=a6C26XqucNwI&refer=home  

Sentiment Summary:

Back To Neutral On Options    

The Put/Call ratio pulled back on Friday as the employment report was mostly tame.  

The CBOE Put/Call ratio closed at 0.88. A consistent string of low readings can be a sign of excessive optimism and often signals a top in the markets. Readings below 0.5 are of concern, but not as serious as readings below 0.40. Readings above 1.0 are bullish. The numbers cited here are meant to be evaluated on a closing basis.

The CBOE P/C ratio for indexes checked in at 1.55. Numbers above 2.0 as the market sells off, often lead to rallies. Readings below 0.9 suggest too much bullish sentiment, just as readings above 2 are usually required to mark major bottoms.

The VIX and VXN had readings of 14.72 and 16.52. A fall near or below 20 on VIX and 30-40 on VXN is considered negative, a fact that is usually confirmed when the volatility indexes begin to rise. Readings above 40 and 50, respectively, are often signs that a bottom may be close to developing.

NYSE specialists were moderate sellers of stock for the week ending 6-22, making it three out of the last four weeks, 6-1 and 6-8, of selling. The only week of some buying in the last four reported was the week of 6-15. This has been a period of generalized weakness and volatility for the market.

The combination of high put option buying and negative action from NYSE insiders has in the past been a prelude to trouble for the markets.

Market Vane's Bullish Consensus was at 67% on July 6, remaining neutral. The UBS sentiment index fell to 89 in June from 95 in May and is starting to increase its distance from the reading of 103, registered in January.

   

Market Moves   Apple Gets Its Hardware Together   Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) continues its juggernaut run, pushing the Amex Hardware Index (HWI) higher. Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com It looks as if Wall Street is betting on another windfall for Apple. The Iphone, like the Ipod, is the key, as Apple seems to have delivered another nearly-killer application. The bugs on the AT & T network notwithstanding, to go along with clever marketing, seem to have convinced investors that Apple has another hit on its hands. The stock has now moved above 132, taking the stock to a 45-plus percent gain for the year.   In other words, momentum is back with Apple. The flip side, of course, is that momentum, once it runs out, will likely lead to a bad fall. But, for now, there is no sign of that to worry about.

 

 

Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

 The Amex Biotech Index (BTK)  is still having trouble rising above 780.

 

Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

 The Amex Pharmaceuticals Index (DRG) continues to tread water near its 200 day moving average although again it seems to have found some support near 350.

 

Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

 The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) delivered a chart breakout on 7-6, and looks ready to continue its climb.

Small stocks are showing some resilience

 

während sich der BBB-Index um die 55 stabilisiert, fangen jetzt die AAA und AA-Indizes an zu rutschen; natürlich nicht in dem absoluten Umfang wie der BBB, aber relativ gesehen ist das schon ein Absturz. Entweder müssen jetzt einige HFs aufgrund von Margin-Calls verkaufen, oder andere HFs gehen Short und wollen von der Misere im subprim-Bereich profitieren.

Zur Index-Übersicht:
http://www.markit.com/information/affiliations/abx  

bereits die 2. in diesem Jahr:

Home Depot launches tender offer for 250 mln shares, adjusts FY guidance
10.07.07 11:01

NEW YORK (THomson Financial) - Home Depot Inc said it lunched a tender offer for 250 mln common shares at 39.00-44.00 usd per share and adjusted its full-year fiscal 2007 sales and earnings per share guidance to reflect HD Supply as a discontinued operation. The group announced in June it was selling its Supply unit for 10.3 bln usd and buy back 22.5 bln usd in stock, or about 30 pct of its shares. It said it may purchase up to an additional 39.5 mln shares in the tender offer without extending the tender offer. Home Depot now expects its earnings per share to decline by 15-18 pct for fiscal 2007 -- compared with a 9 pct fall flagged in May which included an 18 cents a share contribution from HD Supply --, with total retail sales down 1-2 pct and comparable store sales down mid-single digit. The company also stated that it would open approximately 108 new stores in fiscal 2007. Finally, it expects its operating margin to contract by 120-150 basis points this year due to negative same store sales and its continued investment in its core retail operations. The new EPS guidance does not include the gain on the sale of HD Supply or any earnings per share accretion arising from the announced tender offer. "While we expect the housing market to remain challenging for the rest of 2007 and into 2008, we plan to continue our reinvestment plans for the long-term health of our business, understanding that it will put short-term pressure on earnings," said Carol Tome, CFO and executive vice president - corporate services. "We are confident that over the long term, we will deliver productivity improvements and enhance returns on invested capital as the investments take hold," she added.  

Company Bond Risk Rises Most in Four Months on Profit Concerns

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Corporate bond risk rose the most in four months on concern over declining earnings and fallout from the U.S. housing market slump, according to traders of credit- default swaps.

Home Depot Inc. in Atlanta, the world's largest home- improvement retailer, today said earnings per share will fall between 15 percent and 18 percent in the current fiscal year. Alcoa Inc., the world's second-biggest aluminum producer, based in New York, yesterday said second-quarter profit fell 3.9 percent.

Credit-default swaps, contracts used to speculate on a company's ability to repay debts, soared to the highest premium since March in the U.S. and Europe. The iTraxx Crossover Series 7 Index of default swaps on 50 European companies jumped as much as 15,000 euros to 261,000 euros, according to Deutsche Bank AG. The North American CDX index rose $3,000 to $207,500.

``The Home Depot profit warning wasn't what the market was looking for, especially with the earnings season around the corner,'' said Jim Reid, a credit strategist at Deutsche Bank in London. ``The credit markets are very sensitive of anything that reflects weakness in the housing market.''

An increase in the cost of credit-default swaps indicates deteriorating perceptions of credit quality.

Investors are wary of corporate debt because of an increase in defaults on subprime loans and the near-collapse of two hedge funds managed by New York-based Bear Stearns Cos.

Bondholders are looking at earnings reports for indicators of a weakening economy, Unicredit Group credit analysts said in a note to investors today.

``Although the European earnings season will not come into full swing before the third week of July, the impact on credits from `early birds' is, in general, higher than at the end,'' the note said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...20601087&sid=aD4Vw16Z2HnE&refer=home  

aufgrund hoher Abschreibungen;
Q3-Sales -40%

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/...NE000278_FORTUNE5.htm  

den Vogel schießt heute Sears ab;
Begründung bei allen negativen UN-Nachrichten ist der Housing-Slump; so langsam lassen sich die negativen Auswirkungen auf die Gesamtwirtschaft nicht mehr verleugnen

Profit warnings knock market lower
Tuesday July 10, 10:26 am ET
By Ellis Mnyandu

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday as profit warnings from retailer Sears Holdings Corp. (NasdaqGS:SHLD - News) and home builder D.R. Horton Inc (NYSE:DHI - News) fueled concerns about the economy's health and the earnings outlook.

ADVERTISEMENT
Home Depot Inc. (NYSE:HD - News) , the largest U.S. home improvement chain, also rattled the market, at least initially, with a warning. But news that it planned to buy back about 12 percent of its stock lifted the share price.

Investors sold shares of industrial conglomerates such as United Technologies Corp (NYSE:UTX - News) and General Electric (NYSE:GE - News) on concern that the latest profit warnings pointed to slackening consumer spending as slump in housing take its toll.

Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.

"The U.S. is in a slow growth environment," said Subodh Kumar, chief investment strategist at Subodh Kumar & Associates in Toronto, Canada.

"If you take into account what companies such as Home Depot and Sears are saying, I think this thesis that earnings are going to beat expectations is going to come under pressure."

The Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:^DJI - News) was down 65.84 points, or 0.48 percent, at 13,584.13. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^SPX - News) was down 10.63 points, or 0.69 percent, at 1,521.22. The Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq:^IXIC - News) was down 14.74 points, or 0.55 percent, at 2,655.28.

Shares of Sears Holdings Corp. (NasdaqGS:SHLD - News) led losses on the Nasdaq with a 6.5 percent slide to $160.31, while retreating oil prices dragged on shares of Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM - News), making the stock the biggest loser on both the Dow and the S&P 500.

Shares of United Technologies, a diversified manufacturer, dropped 0.5 percent to $72.22 on the New York Stock Exchange, while those of GE, a stock seen as an economic bellwether, fell 0.9 percent to $38.26.

D.R. Horton, the largest U.S. home builder, forecast a third-quarter quarter loss, sending its stock down 2.1 percent to $19.36 on the NYSE. The Dow Jones home construction index dropped 1.5 percent.

Shares of financial companies, including investment banks, also fell, after rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded 612 subprime related debt offerings. Shares of Bear Stearns (NYSE:BSC - News) dropped 2 percent to $140.99.

But shares of Home Depot edged up 0.6 percent to $40.48 on the NYSE.

Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc (NYSE:AA - News) kicked off the reporting season on Monday, posting a profit that matched Wall Street's estimates. Alcoa shares were off 0.1 percent at $42.33.

 

US subprime securities worth 12 bln usd placed on negative watch by S&P UPDATE
10.07.07 16:27

(Updating with S&P's macro view, impact on US housing market) MUMBAI (Thomson Financial) - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said it has placed its credit ratings on 612 classes of residential mortgage-backed securities representing more than 12 bln usd of debt on negative watch. Standard & Poor's cited the poor performance of the US subprime collateral-backed loans, early payment defaults and increasing levels of delinquencies and losses for the move. The affected classes total around 12.078 bln usd in rated securities, it said. Many of the classes issued in late 2005 and much of 2006 have now shown sufficient evidence of delinquency, default and loss trend lines to indicate weak future credit performance, S&P said. On a macro level, S&P said it expects the US housing market, especially the subprime sector, to continue to decline before it improves and home prices to continue to come under stress. It added weakness in the property markets continues to exacerbate losses, with little prospect for improvement in the near term. TFN.newsdesk@thomson.com ssa/ms1 COPYRIGHT Copyright AFX News Limited 2007. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of AFX News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of AFX News.  

Florida foreclosure future shock

A short-sale expert says he can predict market slumps by client traffic. Next stop: The Sunshine State.


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A tidal wave of foreclosures may be heading toward Florida, if you judge by the number of homeowners looking to get rid of their homes as fast as they can.

Duane LeGate, president of House Buyer Network, arranges quick sales for home owners in distress. He claims he can predict where markets will go bad by looking at the traffic on his Web site.

"We can tell you what's going to happen nine months from now," he said. His most endangered market right now is Orange County, Florida, home of Disney World.

"Orlando has blown up. There's been a 700 percent increase in traffic of people filling out our forms," he said. "I could put a bull's-eye on Orlando and write the headline for what will be going on in January and February."

What will be going on could include a large increase in foreclosures as well as lower prices, longer inventories and a slower sales pace.

Here's how the House Buyer Network works: A homeowner wants a quick sale and signs up. The network connects the homeowner with a real estate agent who gets an appraisal for, say, $200,000. The agent markets the home at $195,000. If it fails to sell within the time stipulated in the contract, the agent will buy the house at a prearranged, discounted price of perhaps $180,000.

LeGate estimates the discount from what sellers would get if they didn't need to sell quickly is 5 percent to 8 percent, once all the costs and fees are figured in.

LeGate's forecast runs ahead of the latest home price statistics. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Orlando prices for the first quarter rose 2.5 percent compared with a year ago, which would point to a weak - but more stable - market. Nevertheless, LeGate trusts his indicators.

According to him, much of Central Florida is foundering. Other counties with large traffic bumps include Osceola (up 100 percent in May 2007 compared with May 2006), Polk (136 percent) and Lake (143 percent).

LeGate's prediction doesn't surprise Jonas Lee, whose company, Redbrick Partners, buys properties in distressed markets all around the country. Redbrick focuses further south in Florida, but he sees similarities with Orlando.

"There are tax issues that are depressing the market," said Lee, Property taxes jump when houses change hands. "And insurance rates spiked after the hurricane season of a couple of years ago," he said.

Many of LeGate's clients contracted to buy new homes before they sold their old ones, and they can't afford two sets of mortgages.

Other customers may have gotten an offer, only to have the transaction fall through after they themselves contracted for a new home.

And yet other clients simply cannot keep up with mortgage payments. Many took on subprime hybrid adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) that came with low initial interest rates but are now resetting at much higher levels.

Short-sale interest can indicate slumping markets that are not detectable by traditional price indices. NAR's median home price stats and same-home sale-prices from the Office of Housing Enterprise Oversight can lag or disguise actual market conditions.

Most deals close months after prices are agreed on. Evidence of changes in market conditions may not come out for months afterwards. Evidence of significant discounts in a majority of homes sold wouldn't appear for a while.

When LeGate sees big jumps in client contacts from a single county, he concludes that the area has hit a rough patch that may not come out in price stats for months. It's played out that way in the past when he saw other markets going into distress.

"We called Phoenix, two counties in California and West Palm Beach, Florida in June of 2005," he said, at a time when those areas were still perceived to be white-hot.

Now, according to figures from RealtyTrac, which markets foreclosure properties online, the Phoenix metro area has 10 of the top 11 zip codes for foreclosure filings in Arizona, and all 10 are among the 500 worst hit zip codes in the nation. The other areas are also suffering a deep slump.

Besides the Florida markets, other locales LeGate identified as likely trouble spots include Clark County, Nevada and Riverside County, California where the site's traffic more than doubled between June, 2006 and May, 2007, and Price George County, Maryland, where it tripled.

Some markets are turning positive, according to LeGate. The number of client contacts from Maricopa County, Arizona - the Phoenix area - dropped this year by about 38 percent.

Also looking good are Prince William County, Virginia in the D.C. metro area, where client contacts fell 37 percent, and nearby Fairfax County, where they're down 40 percent.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/05/real_estate/...postversion=2007070612  

Ab heute ist es amtlich. Kurzfristiges Ziel: 1,39 USD/EUR. Was nun, AL?  

10.07.07 17:27
Handelsende Europa

EUR/USD hat am Dienstag ein neues Allzeithoch bei 1,3741 erstürmt, wobei den Greenback auf breiterer Basis die Sorge um die Verfassung des US-Immobilienmarktes und die Befürchtung belastete, dass sich US-Notenbankchef Ben Bernanke bei seiner um 19:00 Uhr CET anstehenden Rede nicht so zinsbullisch geben könnte wie erhofft. Die US-Lagerbestände im Großhandel stiegen im Mai um 0,5%. Ökonomen hatten im Konsens ein Plus von 0,4% erwartet, nachdem der Anstieg im April bei 0,3% gelegen hatte.

Die Schwäche des US-Dollars zeigte sich auf breiterer Basis. GBP/USD eroberte die 2,02er-Marke und erreichte mit 2,0275 ein neues 26-Jahreshoch. Der Yen profitierte zudem von Spekulationen, denen zufolge die Bank of Japan im Zuge ihres Donnerstag anstehenden und unverändert erwarteten Zinsentscheides signalisieren könnte, dass bei dem nächsten Treffen im August eine Anhebung bevorsteht.

Gegenüber dem Kanada-Dollar konnte der Greenback hingegen zulegen. Die Bank of Canada (BoC) hob ihren Leitzins zwar wie erwartet um 25 Basispunkte auf 4,50% an, veröffentlichte aber gleichzeitig ein nicht so zinsbullisches Statement wie erhofft. Darin hieß es lediglich, dass „weitere maßvolle Zinsanhebungen notwendig sein könnten“. (th/FXdirekt)

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Metropolis: Wenn die US-Börsen wegen fauler Housing-Kredite abzusacken beginnen, könnte es beim Dollar eine Überraschung für die Permabären-Fraktion geben, die Aktien und den Dollar synchron abstürzen sieht.  

52 Milliarden Dollar Verlust

Riskante Geschäfte von Hedgefonds im Zuge der US-Immobilienkrise könnten den Banken in den USA Verluste von bis zu 52 Milliarden Dollar bescheren. Das schätzen Experten der Credit Suisse. Deutschland will sich indes auch in Zukunft für mehr Transparenz von Hedgefonds einsetzen, erklärt Bundesbank-Präsident Axel Weber.

New York - Banken könnten nach Einschätzung von Analysten bis zu 52 Milliarden Dollar wegen der Krise auf dem US-Markt für zweitklassige Hypotheken verlieren. Der größte Teil dieses Verlustes dürfte bei Hedgefonds anfallen, die in verbriefte Derivate so genannter "Subprime Mortgages" investieren, schreiben die Analysten der Credit Suisse in einem Bericht.

Besonders betroffen seien zudem US-Banken: Europäische Kreditinstitute investierten zurückhaltender und daher dürfte auch ihr Anteil an einem möglichen Verlust geringer ausfallen, hieß es.

Die Krise bei den zweitklassigen Hypothekenkrediten, die an Schuldner mit schlechter Bonität vergeben werden, hatte im Juni zwei Hedgefonds der US-Investmentbank Bear Stearns in Schieflage gebracht. Die Fonds hatten sich bei der Investition in Kreditderivate spekuliert. Bear Stearns hatte angekündigt, einen der beiden Fonds abzuwickeln, nachdem die Investementbank den anderen Fonds mit 1,6 Milliarden Dollar unter die Arme gegriffen hatte.

Nach Presseberichten sind in den vergangenen Wochen eine ganze Reihe US-amerikanischer Hedgefonds liquidiert worden, die in verbriefte Derivate zweitklassiger Hypothekenkredite investiert hatten. Experten gehen davon, dass die sich jetzt abzeichnende Schieflage einiger dieser Fonds erst die Spitze des Eisberges sei. Eine reguläre Pleite in diesem hoch spekulativen Segment schließen die Beobachter nicht aus und befürchten, dass es am Markt dann zu einer Kettenreaktion kommen könnte.

http://www.manager-magazin.de/geld/artikel/0,2828,493446,00.html
 

ABX-HE-BBB- 07-1 fällt auf 50,25
Autsch

Hat jemand einen Link zu Realtime ABX-Indizes?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...d=20601103&sid=aZQFKZhqnUZk&refer=us  

Danke für deine BM. Eine Währung drückt jedoch immer die Verfassung und das Vertrauen in eine Volkswirtschaft aus. Das Vertrauen in US schwindet zusehens, je mehr die Verschuldungskrise aufgedeckt wird und der Trend weg vom Dollar als Weltleitwährung geht (China weigert sich ja auch langsam die Zeche zu zahlen). Daher ist der Dollarverfall gerechtfertigt und m.E. kein Ende abzusehen. Es werde ja auch immer mehr Dollar gedruckt, was seinen Wert weiter mindert.

Der Zusammenhang Zinsdifferenz <> Währungskurs steht zwar so in den Lehrbüchern, funktioniert in der Praxis jedoch nicht oder nur wenig. Eine Zinserhöhung der FED würde den Dollar also nicht unbedingt stützen.

Das einzige was dem Dollar helfen kann ist ein Crash und eine anschließende Roßkur. Doch das ist nur mit einem Politikwechsel und einem echten Sparhaushalt machbar. Vor der Wahl Ende 2008 also keine Chance.  

Wenn die Welt derart "abzählbar" wäre, gäbe es Börsen-Milliardäre in Hülle und Fülle. All Deine Argumente - die denen des Konsens entsprechen - führen dazu, dass es SEHR VIELE Euro/Dollar-Longs gibt, und sie werden vermutlich alle kein Geld damit verdienen, weil Mehrheiten an der Börse schon mal aus Prinzip abgestraft werden. Dass ist ähnlich wie mit stark geshorteten Aktien, die trotz mieser Fundamentals "nicht fallen wollen".
 

Tenor der heutigen Rede um 19:00 h in USA: "Wir brauchen mehr akademische Forschung, um Inflation besser theoretisch zu verstehen und diese Erkenntnisse in Zinspolitik umzusetzen."

Dass ich nicht lache. Inflation spürt jeder Ami in der eigenen Tasche, etwa an der Zapfsäule, die Bernanke bei der Inflationsberechnung übelmeinend rausbereinigt hat.

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THE FED
Bernanke sticks to academic discussion of inflation
Text of remarks does not address current economy, rate policy
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last Update: 1:49 PM ET Jul 10, 2007

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Fed chairman Ben Bernanke stuck to an academic discussion of inflation on Tuesday, telling economists that more research needs to be done on how to bring theoretical understandings of inflation into the practical world of policy making.

Bernanke's prepared remarks are bound to disappoint financial market participants, who, after hearing that Bernanke would speak about inflation, assumed he would to address central issues such as the true boundaries of the Fed's "comfort zone" on inflation and a progress report on his pet program to have the central bank adopt a formal inflation objective.

"A good deal more must be done before such work [on inflation expectations] proves a reliable basis for policy choices," Bernanke said in his prepared remarks at the monetary economic workshop of the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Mass.

Bernanke said although cutting-edge academic research has highlighted the importance of the general public's inflation expectations in predicting the future course of inflation, academics need to ask more questions before the research has practical applications for monetary policymakers.

A clearer understanding of the key issues for the Fed might emerge next week, when Bernanke will have to answer questions from members of Congress on the Fed's outlook for monetary policy, the economy and inflation.

In his remarks at the academic symposium, Bernanke said there is no doubt that the public's expectation of inflation "greatly influences actual inflation and thus the central bank's ability to achieve price stability."

If people don't expect higher inflation to persist, they are not as likely to press for higher wages. And just as important, if the public doesn't expect inflation to persist, short-term spikes in gasoline prices should not lead to a permanent increase in inflation.

Bernanke said that inflation expectations "seem to be better anchored today than they were a few decades ago," but still remain "imperfectly anchored" because they still tend to move in response to news about the economy.

Bernanke asked the experts to research the best way for the Fed to monitor the public's inflation expectations. At the moment, there are some consumer surveys that ask about inflation expectations and another survey of professional economic forecasters that asks about the topic. "Do we need new measures of expectations or new surveys?" Bernanke asked.

And Bernanke said data on the price expectations of businesses "is particularly scarce." Bernanke said little was know on how the measures of inflation expectations feed into actual pricing behavior by companies.

The Fed chief also requested more work on how the public learns about inflation. "A fuller understanding of the public's learning rules would improve the central bank's capacity to assess its own credibility, to evaluate the implications of its policy decisions and communications strategy, and perhaps to forecast inflation," Bernanke said.

Greg Robb is a senior reporter for MarketWatch in Washington.