Der USA Bären-Thread
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/.../AR2007061201671.html
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Stated income heißt, man kann bei Abschluß einer Hypothek einfach ein Einkommen angeben kann, mit dem man sich für diese Hypothek qualifiziert. Bemerkenswert ist an dieser Stelle, wenn die Hypothek notleidend wird, wird als allererstes nach dem Einkommen gefragt.
Brian Pretti von contraryinvestor.com macht auf diese Entwicklung im aktuellen Market Wrapup auf financialsense.com aufmerksam.
Ich empfehle, die im Text angegebene und verlinkte Rede mal durchzulesen. Sie legt Motive und Verhaltensweisen der beteiligten Akteure dar.
PS.: Ich hätte den Artikel gern komplett reingestellt, aber der Editor hat mir in der Vorschau alles zerrupft. Daher hier nun der Link.
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/pretti/2007/0622.html
Freitag, 22. Juni 2007
Heuschrecken auf dem SprungKKR will auch die Börse
Die große amerikanische Investmentfirma Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR) will nach dem Börsengang des Erzrivalen Blackstone Group ebenfalls an die Börse. Dies berichtete die "New York Times" in ihrer Onlineausgabe. KKR hat nach Angaben der Zeitung Investmentbanken angeheuert, darunter Morgan Stanley. KKR könnte im kommenden Monat einen (Emissions)-Prospekt einreichen. Eine KKR-Sprecherin lehnte eine Stellungnahme ab, schrieb die Zeitung.
KKR könnte sich jedoch je nach Entwicklung der Blackstone-Anteile und der Steuerfragen in Washington auch gegen eine Emission entscheiden. KKR habe die Vorbereitungen vor Monaten getroffen, doch habe man sich angesichts des überwältigenden Blackstone-Interesses endgültig nach vorn bewegt.
An Börsengängen sind neben den beiden Branchen-Schwergewichten auch die Carlyle Group, TPG Capital und Apollo Management interessiert, berichtete die "New York Times".
Fitch sehnt Anleihecrash herbei
von Yasmin Osman (Frankfurt)
Der Ratingagentur Fitch kämen größere Probleme am Markt für Firmenbonds äußerst gelegen. "Unsere größte Herausforderung im Wettbewerb sind nicht Konkurrenten wie DBRS oder AM Best, sondern die hohe Liquidität an den Finanzmärkten und das günstige Umfeld für Kreditrisiken", sagte Europachef Paul Taylor in einem Interview der FTD.
Da es in den vergangenen Jahren kaum Zahlungsausfälle gegeben habe, stehe die Kreditwürdigkeit derzeit nicht so im Fokus der Investoren. Das dürfte sich bei steigenden Ausfallraten ändern. "Wenn es einen Crash am Markt für Unternehmensanleihen gibt, und früher oder später wird es dazu kommen, werden Investoren der Kreditwürdigkeit mehr Aufmerksamkeit schenken. Das wäre für unser Geschäft förderlich", sagte Taylor. Wie nervös die Investoren sind, zeigten am Donnerstag die fallenden Aktienkurse und die steigenden Risikoprämien für Firmenbonds.
Insgesamt verharren die Risikoprämien für Unternehmen aber noch auf sehr niedrigem Niveau. Firmen mit einer mittleren Kreditwürdigkeit von "BBB" müssen für fünfjährige Bonds nur einen Aufschlag zahlen, der 0,32 Prozentpunkte über den Sätzen liegt, zu denen sich Banken untereinander Geld leihen.
"Die Realität sieht so aus, dass die Anleger kaufen, was sie können, da es so viel Geld am Markt gibt. Kaum einer weigert sich, einen Bond ins Portfolio zu nehmen, bei dem ihm der Preis im Verhältnis zur Bonität nicht gefällt", sagte der Fitch-Manager. Seine Aussagen belegen, wie schwer es ist, die Vorherrschaft von Standard & Poor's (S&P) und Moody's, den beiden Platzhirschen am Ratingmarkt, zu knacken.
Drittes Rating immer gefragter
Daher hofft Fitch, dass der Druck auf Firmen steigt, sich von mehr Ratingagenturen benoten zu lassen. "Wir müssen S&P und Moody's keine Marktanteile abjagen. Wenn die Nachfrage nach Ratings steigt, weil Unternehmen sich für ein zweites oder drittes Rating entscheiden, dann können wir in diesen Feldern wachsen", so Taylor. Deutschland-Geschäftsführer Jens Schmidt-Bürgel beobachtet bei großen Emittenten die Tendenz, sich ein drittes Rating einzuholen. "Anleger fragen zunehmend danach", sagte er.
Selbst das boomende Geschäftsfeld strukturierte Finanzierung ist hart umkämpft. Dieser Markt steht für die Hälfte der Umsätze von Agenturen wie Fitch oder Moody's. In diesem Markt stellen Investment-Zweckgesellschaften Anlageprodukte zusammen, indem sie Kredite oder Bonds kaufen, bündeln und in Tranchen unterschiedlicher Risikoklassen bei Anlegern platzieren. Diese Transaktionen brauchen Bonitätsnoten. "S&P und Moody's verlangen, dass die erworbenen Anlageprodukte in dem zusammengestellten Portfolio von ihnen ebenfalls benotet sein müssen. Andernfalls vergeben sie ein schlechteres Rating", so Taylor.
Der Wettbewerb setzt dem Geschäft bisher nicht zu. Im ersten Halbjahr per Ende März stieg der operative Gewinn um ein Drittel auf 101 Mio. Euro. "In den vergangenen Jahren waren die Finanzmärkte, vor allem die Kreditmärkte, sehr aktiv. Wir haben davon zweifellos profitiert", sagte Taylor.
Bear-Stearns-Krise schreckt Anleger auf
Die schweren Probleme zweier Hedge-Fonds der US-Bank Bear Stearns haben am Donnerstag die Risikobereitschaft der Investoren gedämpft. Die Bear-Stearns-Fonds hatten sich mit riskanten US-Hypothekenkrediten verspekuliert. Anleger trennten sich vor allem von Aktien sowie Unternehmensbonds. Die Rentenmärkte profitierten nach schwachem Start von der Flucht aus riskanten Anlagen. "Die Probleme bei den Hedge-Fonds von Bear Stearns waren ein Weckruf, da nun erstmals ein größerer Fonds, der in diesen Bereich investiert, in Schwierigkeiten geraten ist", sagte Unicredit-Analyst Jochen Felsenheimer. "Das Gefährliche für die Finanzmärkte sind weniger Ausfälle und Pleiten bei diesen riskanten Hypotheken, sondern dass so viele Finanzprodukte an die Entwicklung dieses Sektors gekoppelt sind." Außerdem fürchten Anleger Kettenreaktionen. "Diese Ängste werden immer wieder aufkommen, wenn ein Hedge-Fonds in Schwierigkeiten gerät, denn diese müssen dann ihre Vermögenswerte liquidieren, was leicht zu einem weiteren Preisverfall der Produkte führen kann", sagte Marcus Schüler von der Deutschen Bank.
FTD vom 24.06.2007
© 2007 Financial Times Deutschland
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Despite the Dow's Rise, Clouds Gather as the Quarter Closes
At the end of any quarter, professional investors worry about last-minute jolts to their portfolios. This time around, they've got more reason to worry than usual.
The coming week -- the last of the second quarter -- is littered with potential pitfalls. The Federal Reserve meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and although there's a near-unanimous consensus that Fed policy makers will keep their overnight target rate parked at 5.25%, there's always the chance the statement that comes after the meeting could rattle markets.
There's the lingering possibility that the trouble at two big Bear Stearns hedge funds that spooked investors ...
HotandNot.gif
The Golden Ass
How Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman's antics may cost him and his colleagues billions of dollars.
http://www.slate.com/id/2168650
Barry Ritholtz - Street.com
Summer Solstice Linkfest
6/23/2007 11:35 AM EDT
Contained? Contain this!
Mr. Market had a good laugh at everyone's expense this week, chuckling at all that chatter about the "containment" of the subprime meltdown. A certain contingent of mindless pundits who have been clothing the emperor had been steadily chanting that the fall in housing would have no impact on either the economy or the markets.
Of course, it's becoming crystal clear that this was the mind-boggling nonsense that it seemed to be. Whether it's in retail numbers -- think Best Buy, Starbucks and FedEx -- or in the frenzied $3.2 billion dollar machinations by Bear Stearns to rescue two hedge funds, we now know beyond any shadow of a doubt that the rise and fall of the housing sector has had major repercussions on the markets and the economy.
The question before us now is whether the zookeepers can track down the beast, tranquilize it and drag it back to its stinking cage before things get much worse.
All things considered, the damage this past week was mild. The biggest losers were the REIT stocks, down 4.2%. Commodities gave up 3.2% (but crude gained just under 1%). Among the major U.S. indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.0% (its second-worst week this year). The S&P 500 also slid 2.0%, while the Russell 2000 experienced a 1.6% drop. The Nasdaq held up relatively well, declining but 1.4% -- a victory of sorts, considering the tech-laden index's predilection for volatility. Treasuries rallied slightly, regaining some of their losses from the prior week.
Barron's Trader column summed up the week thus:
"Bulls will put a positive spin on the pause, pronouncing such consolidation a constructive necessity for the bull's onward charge. A wholly unscientific poll, conducted over several happy hours, also suggests that many traders do not see higher interest rates hurting stocks until the 10-year yield tops 5.5%."
Our review of the week finds a mix of good and bad news. Wanna know how this all went down? Get clicking!
INVESTING & TRADING
• Contain THIS! So much for that theory...
• The Soft Underside of the Bull: "The battle between Bulls and Bears rules in any market, and this year the bulls are reigning supreme. But the question many chart watchers are now asking is whether this is due to sustainable demand for stocks or from too much money chasing an ever-shrinking pool of available shares in which to invest." (Barron's)
• Adding to this week's volatility: The Russell Indices' Rebalancing.
• Private Equity Squeezes the Shorts: "... as short-selling has proliferated, it has become increasingly difficult to make money at the game. Whereas a profit-challenged enterprise may once have floundered until shutting down or filing for bankruptcy, many such companies are now targets for private equity firms that style themselves as turnaround artists. ... What's more, such firms are often willing to pay a rich premium to the market price for troubled outfits in which they see promise." (BusinessWeek)
• Investing blogs are popping up from every corner of high finance. The Associated Press is your tour guide.
• Seven Factors Boosting Treasuries: "The U.S. Treasury market is advancing on a number of factors, some of which would likely spur a significant advance if they developed further, although this is not yet in sight. The best bet is for stability in bonds -- no moon shot -- because many of the factors that recently drove yields higher are still in place." (TheStreet.com) As you would imagine, I find these arguments quite interesting, but not compelling.
• For a decidely different take on the Blackstone IPO, read The Golden Ass: How Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman's antics may cost him and his colleagues billions of dollars. (Slate)
• What happens when you suggest we should replace subsidies for oil and ethanol with subsidies for solar, and at the same time have expedited processing for nuclear power plant permits? A whole lot of commentary! Crude Remains Strong Despite Inventory Build.
ECONOMYThe Wall of Worry continues to build:
• What do you call a 25% increase in the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index over the past five months? Agflation!
• Stephen Roach's Bookends: "Two years - 1982 and 2007 - frame the window of my experience as an economist at Morgan Stanley. When I walked in the door a quarter century ago, my focus was on a $3 trillion high-inflation US economy that was mired in the depths of its worst recession of the post-World War II era. Today, all eyes are on a low-inflation, increasingly integrated $52 trillion world economy. There couldn't be a greater difference between then and now."
• Report from UCLA team skirts the R-word: "The sluggish housing market is starting to drag down the rest of the economy, leading UCLA forecasters to conclude that although the U.S. is not actually in a recession, 'it is certainly close.'" (Los Angeles Times)
HOUSING• Out of touch with realty reality: What, me worry? Most Americans don't seem to believe there's a serious housing slump. "Despite turmoil in the housing markets that includes record foreclosure numbers, mortgage rate increases and home price depreciation, homeowners don't believe there's a real estate slump, according to a new poll." (CNNMoney.com)
• The Most Over/Under Valued U.S. Housing Markets.
• Subprime storm winds will keep blowing: "The fallout from a years-long surge in subprime lending -- higher-cost loans to borrowers with impaired credit -- is far from finished. The number of homes entering foreclosure is expected to top 1 million this year, with 60% of those being subprime mortgages, says mortgage giant Freddie Mac." (USA Today)
• Rate Rise Pushes Housing, Economy to `Blood Bath': "The worst is yet to come for the U.S. housing market. The jump in 30-year mortgage rates by more than a half a percentage point to 6.74 percent in the past five weeks is putting a crimp on borrowers with the best credit just as a crackdown in subprime lending standards limits the pool of qualified buyers. The national median home price is poised for its first annual decline since the Great Depression, and the supply of unsold homes is at a record 4.2 million, the National Association of Realtors reported." (Bloomberg)
TECHNOLOGY & SCIENCE
• Steve Jobs in a Box: "It's a stunning box, a wizard object with a passel of amazing features (It's a phone! An iPod! A Web browser!). But for all its marvels, the iPhone inaugurates a dangerous new era for Jobs. Has he peaked?" (New York)
• Microsoft vs. Google: The duel on your desktop. (The Seattle Times)
• 25 Web Sites to Watch. (PC World.com)
• Mapping the Internet: "The increased use of peer-to-peer communications could improve the overall capacity of the Internet and make it run much more smoothly. That's the conclusion of a novel study mapping the structure of the Internet."
The rumor is that the Hamptons are going to be pretty quiet this weekend, especially where the hedge fund set and their iBankers hang out.
But that's not true -- I hear there's a big party over at Doug Kass' place!
Got a comment, suggestion, link idea? Or do you just have something on your mind? The Linkfest loves to get email! If you've got something to say, then by all means please do.
Position: ∞
If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem."
— J P Getty
"Full House Sell Signal"
Am 4. Juni gab Morgan Stanley ein so genanntes „Full House Sell Signal“ für den europäischen Aktienmarkt heraus. Das dreistufige Signal hätte seit 1980 lediglich fünfmal Alarm geschlagen, so die Analysten. Daraufhin wären die Aktienmärkte jedes Mal deutlich gefallen, im Durchschnitt um 15 Prozent. Zwei der fünf Signale wären im September 1987 und im April 2002 ausgelöst worden.
Die Studie wurde in der Presse ausgiebig zitiert und als Grund für einen Selloff angeführt, der nach Veröffentlichung der Studie stattfand.
Bild 1
Im Nachhinein interessant ist die Tatsache, dass die Veröffentlichung dieser Studie tatsächlich auf den Tag genau das bisherige Verlaufshoch im Dow Jones Index und im S&P 500 traf.
In den meisten Meldungen fehlte jedoch eine wichtige Zusatzinformation. Nur Reuters stieg tiefer in die Materie ein und schrieb, dass ein weiteres Element des Modells das Full House Sell Signal momentan nicht zu 100 Prozent glaubwürdig erscheinen lasse: „Erst wenn das Sentiment bullisch wird, dürfte sich das Full House Sell Signal tatsächlich verwirklichen“, wurde der zuständige Analyst zitiert.
http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/..._0_CITYWIRE-MORGAN-STANLEY.xml
Also sollten wir der Frage nachgehen, ob sich das Sentiment seit dem Erscheinen der Studie vor drei Wochen verändert hat, und wenn ja, in welche Richtung. Hier die Fakten: Das durch „Ticker Sense“ gemessene Sentiment der Internet-Blogger befand sich um den vierten Juni herum bei 34 Prozent. In der letzten Woche waren 50% der Blogger bullisch. Die American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) maß damals 33 Prozent Bullen, in der vergangenen Woche waren des 43 Prozent. Weitgehend unverändert blieb die Zahl der bullisch eingestellten US-Börsenbriefschreiber (54,3% damals zu 53,3% aktuell). Investors Intelligence stellte aber auch fest, dass der Anteil der Bären in den letzten Wochen deutlich zurückgegangen ist (von 22,8 auf jetzt 18,9 Prozent). Zudem beherrschten in Deutschland in den vergangenen beiden Wochen zunehmend bullische Schlagzeilen und Titelblätter die Fach- und Publikumspresse.
Im Klartext: Das Sentiment ist seit dem 4. Juni spürbar bullischer geworden. Ironischerweise ist der Zinssatz der 10jährigen US-Bonds seitdem deutlich gestiegen. Auch der Ölpreis konnte seit dem 4. Juni um drei US-Dollar zulegen. Wie das zusammenpasst: Gar nicht, aber die kaum berechenbare Sprunghaftigkeit der Marktteilnehmer ist ja seit jeher das Salz in der Suppe. Man muss nicht unbedingt verstehen, warum Sie etwas tun, sondern sehen, was sie tun.
Ein weiterer Unterschied zum 4. Juni: Zum damaligen Zeitpunkt war weit und breit kein Hindenburg-Omen in Sicht. In den letzten acht Tagen ergaben sich gleich drei dieser Signale (zwei davon am Donnerstag und Freitag), die nach stark ansteigenden Märkten einen deutlichen Anstieg der Distribution anzeigen.
Bild 2
Die starken Hände lassen ihre Aktien in schwache Hände übergehen: „Die Fische werden gefüttert“. Das bezeugt das am Freitag an der NYSE gemessene Handelsvolumen: Mehr als 2,6 Mrd. Aktien wurden umgesetzt. Ein solcher Wert wurde seit Jahren nicht mehr erreicht. Das kuriose: Es gab keine Panik, denn das Abwärtsvolumen betrug lediglich 71 Prozent. In einer Panik sind Abwärtsvolumina von 90% oder mehr üblich. Anscheinend lassen sich die Fische derzeit gern füttern.
Fazit: Das war kein schlechtes Timing von Morgan Stanley. Seit der Veröffentlichung der Studie ist das Sentiment insgesamt bullischer geworden. In Deutschland war zum ersten Mal seit Jahren wieder eine gewisse Euphorie spürbar, die man allerdings nicht mit derjenigen aus dem Jahr 2000 vergleichen kann. Aber das sollte man nicht erwarten und ist auch für eine Top-Bildung der Märkte nicht notwendig. Die Märkte befinden sich aktuell im „reifen“ Abschnitt des Bullenmarktes, in dem die Volatilität weiter zunehmen dürfte. Wir sind der Meinung, dass sich die Märkte in den kommenden Wochen nach unten orientieren werden. Entscheidend ist, dass man aktuell Distribution in einem Maße und über einen Zeitraum beobachten kann, wie das schon lange nicht mehr der Fall war.
Robert Rethfeld
Wellenreiter-Invest
Wir schauen hinter die Märkte und betrachten diese mit exklusiven Charts.
P.S. Ein kostenloses 14tägiges Schnupperabonnement erhalten Sie unter www.wellenreiter-invest.de
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Unbenannt.png (verkleinert auf 91%)
Rate Rise Pushes Housing, Economy to `Blood Bath'
June 20 (Bloomberg) -- The worst is yet to come for the U.S. housing market.
The jump in 30-year mortgage rates by more than a half a percentage point to 6.74 percent in the past five weeks is putting a crimp on borrowers with the best credit just as a crackdown in subprime lending standards limits the pool of qualified buyers. The national median home price is poised for its first annual decline since the Great Depression, and the supply of unsold homes is at a record 4.2 million, the National Association of Realtors reported.
``It's a blood bath,'' said Mark Kiesel, executive vice president of Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., the manager of $668 billion in bond funds. ``We're talking about a two- to three-year downturn that will take a whole host of characters with it, from job creation to consumer confidence. Eventually it will take the stock market and corporate profit.''
Confidence among U.S. homebuilders fell in June to the lowest since February 1991, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index released this week. Housing starts declined in May for the first time in four months, the Commerce Department reported yesterday. New-home sales will decline 33 percent from 2005's peak to the end of this year, according to the Realtors' group, exceeding the 25 percent three-year drop in 1991 that helped spark a recession.
`Economic Recession'
``It's not just a housing recession anymore, it looks more and more like an economic recession,'' said Nouriel Roubini, a Clinton administration Treasury Department director and economic adviser who now runs Roubini Global Economics in New York.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest securities firm, and Bear Stearns Cos., the largest underwriter of mortgage-backed securities in 2006, said last week that rising foreclosures reduced their earnings. Bear Stearns said profit fell 10 percent, and Goldman reported a 1 percent gain, the smallest in three quarters. Both firms are based in New York.
The investment banks, insurance companies, pension funds and asset-management firms that hold some of the U.S.'s $6 trillion of mortgage-backed securities have yet to suffer the full effect of subprime loans gone bad, said David Viniar, Goldman's chief financial officer. Subprime mortgages, given to people with bad or limited credit histories, account for about $800 billion of the market.
``I continue to believe that we haven't seen the bottom in the subprime market,'' Viniar said on a June 14 conference call with reporters. ``There will be more pain felt by people as that works through the system.''
He didn't return calls this week seeking additional comments.
`Drag on the Economy'
``This has been a drag on the economy,'' Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said at a press briefing today after he testified in front of the House Financial Services Committee. ``I do believe that we are at or near the bottom.''
Homebuilding stocks are down 20 percent this year after falling 20 percent in 2006, according to the Standard & Poor's Supercomposite Homebuilding Index of 16 companies. Before last year, the index had gained sixfold in five years.
``There isn't a recovery about to happen,'' said Ara Hovnanian, chief executive officer of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., the Red Bank, New Jersey-based homebuilder. The company's stock tumbled 42 percent this year through yesterday.
The share of people taking out all types of adjustable-rate home loans averaged 29 percent during the past three years, compared with the 17 percent average of the prior three years, according to data compiled by Mclean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac.
Higher fixed mortgage rates and stricter lending standards mean some of those borrowers won't be able to refinance into fixed- rate loans. Many of them have seen their home's value drop even as their interest rates adjust higher.
`Millions of People'
``When all these people see their mortgage payment and it's up 40 or 50 percent, they're going to say, `We can't stay in this house,''' Pimco's Kiesel said. ``And there are millions of people in this situation.''
The average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.74 percent last week, up from 6.15 percent at the beginning of May, according to Freddie Mac, the second-largest source of money for home loans. That adds $116 a month to the payment for a $300,000 loan and about $42,000 over the life of the mortgage.
The recent increase in mortgage rates is the biggest spike since 2004. The change means buyers can afford 8 percent less house than they could five weeks ago, Kiesel said.
``Prices are going lower,'' he said.
The housing sector will push the U.S. economy into recession unless the Federal Reserve cuts its benchmark rate at the first surge in unemployment, said Kiesel, who expects the Fed to reduce rates.
Home Equity Loans
In addition to their primary mortgages, homeowners had $913.7 billion of debt in home equity loans in 2005, more than double the $445.1 billion in 2001, according to a paper by former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and James Kennedy on equity extraction issued by the Fed three months ago.
About a third of that money, extracted as home values surged 53 percent from 2000 to 2005, was used to buy cars and other consumer goods, according to the paper. The interest rate on those loans doubled to 8.25 percent in 2006 from 4 percent in 2003.
If the Federal Reserve lowers the rate it charges for overnight lending to banks, that would cut the prime rate that moves in tandem with it and reduce the interest on many types of adjustable home loans, including home equity mortgages.
Federal Reserve policy makers probably will keep the overnight bank lending rate unchanged at a six-year high of 5.25 percent when they next meet on June 27, according to a Bloomberg survey of 72 economists.
Boom and Bust
Homebuyers who got an adjustable-rate mortgage, a so-called ARM, in 2004 have seen their rate climb by about 40 percent. That's enough to add $288 to the monthly payment for a $300,000 mortgage. The average adjustable rate last week was 5.75 percent, an 11-month high, according to Freddie Mac.
Roubini predicts the decline in U.S. home sales will last at least another 12 months, reducing the median house price by 5 percent this year and next. That would take home prices back to 2004, when the national median was $195,200.
The primary cause of the 1990 to 1991 recession was a real estate boom and bust similar to the past seven years, Roubini said. A real estate ``bubble'' in the mid-1980s led to speculative buying and lower credit standards that resulted in widespread foreclosures, he said. The defaults triggered a credit crunch that turned into an economic recession in the spring of 1990, said Roubini, who is an economics professor at New York University's Stern School of Business.
He put the chance of a recession this year at ``50-50,'' above former Fed chief Greenspan's 33 percent estimate. A recession is a decline in gross domestic product for two consecutive quarters.
`Significant Drag'
Greenspan warned of ``froth'' in the real estate market in 2005, before leaving the central bank in January 2006. Three months ago Greenspan said there was a ``one-third probability'' of an economic recession this year, in large part due to the unsteady housing market. He reiterated that view last month at a conference hosted by Merrill Lynch & Co. in Singapore
``There is no doubt there is a slowdown going on in the U.S.,'' Greenspan said at the conference. ``We are clearly having troubles in the capital investment area, as well as potentially in the consumption area and obviously housing being a significant drag.''
A Fed survey of senior loan officers issued in April said that 45 percent of lenders had restricted ``nontraditional'' lending, such as interest-only mortgages, and 15 percent had tightened standards for the most creditworthy, or prime, borrowers. More than half had raised standards for subprime borrowers, according to the survey.
Subprime mortgages have rates that are at least 2 or 3 percentage points above the safest so-called prime loans. Such loans made up about a fifth of all new mortgages last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association in Washington.
Housing Chain
Making it harder for those people to buy houses is going to create trouble all the way up the housing chain as people who own starter homes find it more difficult to sell their real estate and buy bigger properties, said Neal Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse Holdings USA Inc. in New York.
``The subprime market has changed character dramatically, and that takes a number of entry-level buyers out of the picture,'' said Soss, who was an adviser to former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker.
Home sales won't increase in any sustained way until 2008, though the stumble probably won't cause a recession because the housing market hasn't reduced consumer spending, he said.
Retail Sales Endure
``Here we are a year and a half into the housing slowdown and retail sales are off the chart,'' Soss said. The economy expanded at a 1.9 percent pace in the first quarter, compared with a year earlier, the smallest gain since the 1.8 percent rate in the second quarter of 2003, ``but it hasn't collapsed, and I don't think it will,'' he said.
Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis yesterday said the U.S. housing slump is almost over. ``The drag stops in the next few months,'' said Lewis, whose bank relies on the U.S. market for almost 90 percent of its revenue. ``We do not see a recession. Because that drag stops, you'll see the economy begin to pick up in the third and fourth quarters.''
Median Home Price
The median U.S. price for a previously owned home fell 1.4 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the third consecutive decline, according to the National Association of Realtors. Before the third quarter of 2006 prices hadn't dropped since 1993. The quarterly median may dip another 2.4 percent in the current period, the Chicago-based industry trade group said in its June forecast.
Measured annually, the national median price for a previously owned home hasn't dropped since the Great Depression in the 1930s, according to Lawrence Yun, an economist with the trade group. This year it probably will fall 1.3 percent, Yun said.
The share of mortgages entering foreclosure rose to 0.58 percent in the first quarter, the highest on record, from 0.54 percent in the final three months of 2006, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a report last week. Subprime loans going into default rose to a five-year high of 2.43 percent, up from 2 percent, and late payments from borrowers with poor credit histories rose to almost 13.8 percent, the highest since 2002.
Prime loans entering foreclosure increased to 0.25 percent, the highest in a survey that goes back to 1972. That's a sign that even the most creditworthy borrowers are being squeezed, Roubini said.
Adjustable Rates
``We have a lot of people, even prime borrowers, who are at the edge because they either bought with no equity, they have an ARM that's seen a rate spike, or they used their house like an ATM and turned their equity into cash,'' Roubini said. ``Many of those people are under water today, and if they have to sell, it's going to drag down values in their neighborhood.''
Some owners are selling their homes at ``fire sale'' prices to avoid foreclosure after seeing their adjustable mortgage rates spike, said Lawrence White, an economics professor at the Stern School of Business.
``Prices will continue to soften for as long as we have distressed sellers,'' White said. Some regions of the U.S. could see price declines of 10 percent in the next six to 12 months, he said. The slump probably won't cause a recession, he said.
``It's not going to be the 1929 stock-market disaster, with people jumping out of buildings, but there is going to be widely dispersed pain for the next few quarters,'' he said.
The biggest problem is volatile home prices, said Gary Shilling, head of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic forecasting company in Springfield, New Jersey. Shilling put the chance of a recession this year at 75 percent.
`Exploding ARMs'
``A lot of people went out on a limb to pay the record high prices for homes, and they're in trouble now,'' he said.
Borrowers who got loans with so-called teaser rates are in the biggest bind, according to Shilling. Prices surged a record 12 percent in 2005, spurring buyers to ``stretch'' to qualify for bigger loans by using interest-only ARMs or so-called option ARMs with low introductory payments.
Some have payments based on interest rates as low as 1 percent. At the end of an introductory period, the rate can more than quadruple, leading them to be called ``exploding ARMs,'' he said. Some loans allow borrowers to choose how much they want to pay, with the balance added to the loan's principal, making it possible to owe more than the home's purchase price.
``Homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages are getting squeezed on all sides,'' said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial Inc. in Chicago. Real estate taxes have surged along with home prices, and many U.S. homeowners saw their property insurance double after Hurricane Katrina ravaged Louisiana and Mississippi, she said.
Swonk said the housing slide will last into next year. Still, she doesn't expect the economy to slow because of it.
``The economy could easily beat expectations in the second half of this year,'' she said. ``The housing correction remains the primary threat to that happening.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Kathleen M. Howley in Boston at kmhowley@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: June 20, 2007 18:01 EDT
Nun gibt es in USA sogar schon eine Bürgerinitiative (www.ForeclosuresAway.com) gegen die ausufernden Zwangsversteigerungen (but: there is no free lunch for everybody...)
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Anfang Mai lag der Zinssatz für Festzins-Hypotheken über 30 Jahre noch bei 6,15 %, jetzt sind es bereits 6,74 %
Und das kommt nun ausgerechnet [oder vielleicht gerade deshalb? - Nachfrage treibt ja die Preise...] zu einem Zeitpunkt, an dem in USA Rekordzahlen von Variablen (option-ARMs) Hypothekenverträgen auslaufen. Werden die nun alle zu 6,74 % refinanziert, fallen für viele US-Hausbesitzer vernichtend hohe Fixkosten an. Ein Großteil der "Subprime"-Käufer [Kreditvolumen: 800 Milliarden Dollar lt. Bloomberg] werden kapitulieren und ihr Haus aufgeben.
Zum Vergleich: Das faule Bond-Portfolio der beiden letzte Woche Pleite gegangenen Bear-Stearns-Hedgefonds hat lediglich ein Volumen von 20 Milliarden Dollar [immerhin mehr als dreimal so hoch wie die Verluste des Hedgefond Amaranth - 6 Milliarden - in 2006]. Zieht man die 20 Milliarden, die die beiden BS-Fonds vernichtet haben, von den 800 Milliarden an ausstehenden Subprime-Krediten ab, bleiben immer noch 780 Milliarden offen. Eine "Reinigung" waren die BS-Pleiten daher nicht.
Die steigenden Hypo-Festzinsen schrecken zugleich solvente Neukäufer ab, so dass sich die Abwärtsspirale bei den US-Immobilienpreisen (immer mehr Angebot durch Zwangsversteigerungen trifft auf immer weniger Kaufinteressenten) weiter fortsetzen dürfte.
Aus dem Bloomberg-Artikel (# 2668):
The average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.74 percent last week, up from 6.15 percent at the beginning of May, according to Freddie Mac, the second-largest source of money for home loans. That adds $116 a month to the payment for a $300,000 loan and about $42,000 over the life of the mortgage.
Zins-Chart der 30-jährigen US-Staatsanleihen
- vor Bruch des Widerstands bei 5,28 %?
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Oder ist schon jemand hier short?
P.S. Heute abend kommt die sentix-Umfrage raus, die in den letzten Wochen recht treffsichere Vorhersagen ermöglichte, wenn auch nur auf kurze Sicht. Das Ergebnis stelle ich dann online.
Meine Prognose: Der DOW rettet sich mit einem Pullback über den 30.6. und geht dann steil abwärts. Da der DAX noch schamloser übertrieben hat, gehts hier dann schneller und noch tiefer. See you in August at 6.600... Dann ist Crabmeat statt Lobster in East Hampton angesagt.