nach Resplit 5:1 bergauf?
In China mehren sich die Anzeichen dafür, dass die Wirtschaft wieder an Fahrt gewinnt. Die Zentralbank ist noch optimistischer als die Regierung. Gute Nachrichten gibt es auch für deutsche Firmen.
Geschäftsviertel in Peking: In China wächst die Zuversicht, dass die Wirtschaft stärker zulegen kann
Foto: AP Geschäftsviertel in Peking: In China wächst die Zuversicht, dass die Wirtschaft stärker zulegen kann Bild teilen
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Weiterführende Links
China: Autobauer wollen sich zum Marktführer shoppen
Weltwirtschaft: IWF senkt zum sechsten Mal Konjunkturprognose
Export: China will zur nachhaltigen Industriemacht werden
Konjunktur: China erteilt bedingungslosem Wachstum eine Abfuhr
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China - Wirtschaft
Chinas Wirtschaft wird nach Einschätzung der Zentralbank 2013 stärker wachsen als von der Regierung erwartet. "Ich denke, dass wir in diesem Jahr sicherlich über der Wachstumsrate von 7,5 Prozent liegen werden", zitierte die amtliche Nachrichtenagentur Xinhua den stellvertretenden Notenbankchef Yi Gang am Rande der Jahrestagung des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF) in Washington. 7,6 Prozent oder ein Plus in ähnlicher Größenordnung seien möglich.
Damit mehren sich die Anzeichen, dass sich die zweitgrößte Volkswirtschaft der Welt nach einer längeren Phase der Abkühlung stabilisiert und wieder an Fahrt gewinnt. Erst am Donnerstag hatte Ministerpräsident Li Keqiang erklärt, dass Chinas Wirtschaft in den vergangenen Monaten wieder stärker in Schwung gekommen sei.
Die Regierung strebt für dieses Jahr ein Wachstum von 7,5 Prozent an. Die für europäische Verhältnisse kräftig anmutende Zahl ist aber für das Schwellenland mit seinem Milliarden-Volk die niedrigste Wachstumsrate seit mehr als zwei Jahrzehnten.
Privater Konsum soll angekurbelt werden
Warum China langsamer wächst
Das Ausland
Die staatlichen Investitionen
Der Wechselkurs
Die Regierung nimmt für den Umbau der Wirtschaft schwächere Wachstumsraten in Kauf. Ziel ist es, die Abhängigkeit von Exporten und Investitionen zu senken und stattdessen den privaten Konsum anzukurbeln.
Die Autoverkäufe in China sind im September bereits kräftig gestiegen. Im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat legte der Absatz auf dem weltgrößten Automarkt um satte 21 Prozent auf 1,59 Millionen Wagen zu, wie der Branchenverband CAAM mitteilte. Auf Jahressicht liegen die Verkäufe mit 12,8 Millionen Stück 14 Prozent über den ersten neun Monaten aus 2012.
Schwere Nutzfahrzeuge mit eingerechnet lag der September-Absatz bei 1,936 Millionen Fahrzeugen und damit knapp 20 Prozent höher als vor einem Jahr. Die deutschen Hersteller Volkswagen und Audi sowie BMW und Daimler hatten für den September bereits satte Zuwächse in China vermeldet.
na, wer hätte das geglaubt! ewig dahindümpelnd verbrachten wir unsere Tage damals!
Nix passierte, immer gings bergab - wie bei allen Solarunternehmen. Dann habe ich nochmal ordentlich verbilligt, weil ich nicht an den Konkurs von JA geglaubt hatte. Seitdem erfreue ich mich eines meiner grünsten Invest in meinem Depot.
Begonnen hatte der ganze Hype nach dem 5:1 Resplit. Unter 20 Dollar werde ich nicht verkaufen - die Solarreinigung ist m.M.n. so gut wie abgeschlossen - die großen werden nun profitieren.
Weiter gehts....
....
http://www.ariva.de/news/...eberraschend-Sorgen-um-Konjunktur-4802016
ich frage mich nun wollt ihr hier über China diskutieren oder über JASO
JASO has an average dollar-volume (as measured by average daily share volume multiplied by share price) of $39.0 million.
JASO has traded 2.3 million shares today.
JASO is up 3.6% today.
JASO was down 7.4% yesterday.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12065202/1/...d-cat-bounce-stock.html?
In the past 52 weeks, JA Solar share prices have been bracketed by a low of $0.58 and a high of $11.40 and closed yesterday at $10.00, 1,617% above that low price. Over the past week, the 200-day moving average (MA) has gone up 1.9% while the 50-day MA has advanced 0.9%.
JA Solar (NASDAQ:JASO) defies analysts with a current price ($10.00) 29.0% above its average consensus price target of $7.10. The stock should discover initial support at its 50-day moving average (MA) of $8.79 and subsequent support at its 200-day MA of $6.57.
http://www.zacks.com/research/get-news.php?id=284z0894
1) Vorhandene Kapazität. China bremst aktuell die Tier 1s und 2s beim Kapazitätausbau ab! Hier kann Ja Solar noch etwas anbieten ohne hohe Grenzkosten aufzuwenden.
2) Die BESTE BILANZ unter allen Tier 1s. Die höchste Eigenkaptalausstattung.
3) Die Produktiionskosten sinken im Vergleich zu Jinko, Canadian schneller (da letztere einfach bereits vorweg sind!). Demnach erhöht sich das Potential der Überraschung, wenn die Margen schneller wachsen.
Long
Why the Reiteration?
JA Solar − the largest solar-cell producer by capacity – has a geographically diverse customer base as well as silicon wafer supply agreements in place to feed its production.
JA Solar caters to an increasingly geographically diversified pan-continental customer base, which spans Germany, Italy, the U.S., Spain, India, Korea, China and Japan.
The company also effectively uses its low-cost locational advantage in China. A consistent focus on widening its geographical customer base has resulted in incremental international sales.
In the domestic market, JA Solar would stand to gain from the Chinese government boosting its target to 35 gigawatt (:GW) of cumulative solar installations by 2015. The company has also made major progress in accessing new markets like Thailand and Australia
The company now anticipates third quarter deliveries between 450 megawatt (MW) and 470 MW. Although the company incurred a loss in the second quarter, it managed to cut its loss both sequentially as well as year over year. The narrower loss came on the heels of higher-than-expected shipments. Strong demand in the high average selling price market of Japan led to the growth. The company also increased its foothold in the high-margin markets of Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Africa.,,,
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ja-solar-kept-neutral-172003499.html
Suntech is selling off its main Chinese operating subsidiary, and the parent company is restructuring. Image: Suntech
Suntech is selling off its main Chinese operating subsidiary, and the parent company is restructuring. Image: Suntech
Holders of Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd.'s (Wuxi, China) notes have submitted an involuntary filing for chapter 7 bankruptcy against the company in the U.S. state of New York. If approved, the Chapter 7 process will result in liquidation of the company, instead of the reorganization allowed under Chapter 7.
Suntech has three weeks to respond to the petition. The company defaulted on more than USD 500 million in multiple classes on notes in March 2013, and despite repeated forbearance agreements the matter is not settled.
Suntech selling off main subsidiary, restructuring
Suntech is in the process of selling off its main Chinese operating subsidiary Wuxi Suntech, which was the subject of a previous insolvency filing by eight Chinese banks. The company's European subsidiary is also under creditor protection while the parent company restructures.
Hedge fund Trondheim Capital LLC is among the parties who filed the chapter 7 petition, which was made publicly available by the Wall Street Journal (New York City), in its coverage of the story.
2013-10-17 | Courtesy: U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Southern District of New York; Image: Suntech | solarserver.com © Heindl Server GmbH
By Sophie Vorrath on 1 October 2013
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China’s demand for solar PV is growing faster than expected and, along with rising demand in Japan, could see the two countries account for just under half of the world’s estimated 45GW shipments in 2014, according to new analysis by Deutsche Bank.
In a detailed research report, Deutsche says China’s PV demand is growing a lot faster than previously expected, driven by the utility-scale market. Analyst Vishal Shah predicts the country’s PV installations in 2014 could more than double the expected 2013 totals, and far surpass the Chinese government’s annual target of around 10GW.
“While 2013 demand in China is likely is fall short of the targeted 10GW annual run-rate, we anticipate 2014 demand to significantly exceed these levels, with installations potentially reaching 13- 15GW …in 2014 compared to 6-7GW… in 2013,” says the report.
Screen Shot 2013-10-01 at 12.32.31 PM Screen Shot 2013-10-01 at 12.32.23 PM“In a scenario where Japanese demand remains at 6-7GW run-rate in 2014 and Chinese demand increases to ~13-15GW, we believe China/Japan together could account for ~45% of the estimated ~45GW shipments in 2014,” Deutsche says. “Considering the upside to global demand prospects in other markets, we believe our global demand estimate of ~45GW could prove conservative.”
And the same goes for the China estimate, with Deutsche adding it believes the Chinese market “is just starting to ramp up.” The report notes that, with its history of constructive policy support, robust electricity demand, domestic air pollution problems, and the jobs boost from the PV industry, there is “potential for future upward revisions of targets” for China, which it notes has happened four times in two years already.
The report also compares the current state of the solar sector in China to EU markets like Spain, Italy and Germany: “Just like in the case of European solar sector, Chinese solar demand growth is currently driven by attractive project IRRs resulting from recently announced feed-in tariffs. IRRs for several utility scale projects are in the low/mid teens and low cost project financing is made available as part of the central government policy initiative to curb pollution/promote growth of the solar sector.
Screen Shot 2013-10-01 at 12.33.13 PMShah names the major catalysts of this growth as: the recent announcement of pollution control measures; additional policy measures to drive a structural change in the supply and demand outlook for the solar sector over the next 12-18 months; the resolution of financing and land title constraints, and the establishment of new business models, and; and stabilisation of pricing/margins across the PV value chain due to emerging poly supply tightness.
“Assuming demand increases to ~50GW in 2014, we see a poly supply shortfall of ~40-45K MT in 2014 versus our current estimate of ~11K MT poly shortage in ~45GW demand scenario. Both price and availability of polysilicon could start to emerge as primary growth constraints for companies in 2014,” the report says.
Deutsche is forecasting global PV demand in 2013 to reach around 38GW and increase strongly in 2014 to as high as 45GW, with upside potential. “We now expect additional policy measures recently announced in China to drive a structural change in the supply and demand outlook for the solar sector over the next 12-18 months,” Shah wrote in the report.
http://www.zacks.com/research/get-news.php?id=290z5130
Total bullish aus Chartsicht! Denke wir sehen bis Ende der Woche noch die 12-13 US$, sofern kein Markteinbruch kommt.
JA Solar Holdings Co Ltd. manufactures solar cells. The Company sells its products principally to solar module manufacturers, which assemble and integrate its products into modules and systems.
um zu sehen was hier tatsächlich los ist,sollte man unbedingt mal die News bei
http://jasolar.com/webroot/company/news.php alleine in diesem Jahr durchlesen.Die habene tliche wirklich grosse Aufträge erhalten http://www.zacks.com/research/get-news.php?id=294z7023
Ich wollte sie eigentlich schon verkaufen und werde sie nun behalten
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Airborne fine-particle pollution density in Harbin, the capital of key Chinese farm province Heilongjiang, reached 1,000 micrograms per cubic meter yesterday, or 40 times more than the international safe standard under World Health Organization guidelines, the government-run Shanghai Daily reported today. The 1,000-level readings were the first since China started releasing PM2.5 data last year. PM2.5 levels measure air particles smaller than 2.5 micrograms.
An SVG map of China with Heilongjiang province...
Heilongjiang Province is located in northeastern China. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
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Dense smog that reduced visibility to 50 meters led officials to shut schools and airports, the newspaper said. Harbin itself is an industrial city of more than 10 million people.
Among other measures to combat the country’s serious pollution problems, China has recently moved to increase the percentage of renewables in its energy mix (see a related article here), leading to a run-up in shares in solar energy companies. Shares in U.S.-listed Trina rose 2% last night.
Habe irgendwie das Gefühl, das Jaso in Kürze im Maydorn-Solardepot auftaucht...., ist aber wie gesagt nur so Inuition. Heute morgen hat er im Aktionär angekündigt, dass es heue Nachmittag eine Neuaufnahme gibt.
Ich überlege, bei Jaso eher noch aufzustocken. Müsste aber erstmal anderswo was verkaufen...
Despite sector volatility, the long-term prospects remain strong for this well-positioned solar energy firm.
By MoneyShow.com 21 hours ago
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MoneyShow.comImage: Solar energy (© Mick Roessler/Corbis)By Paul Goodwin, Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report
Solar energy has been the energy source of tomorrow for decades now, but there always seems to be something standing in the way of large-scale adoption.
For many years, the biggest obstacle was simple economics: Solar costs more per watt than coal. But rising oil prices, increasingly efficient solar cells and environmental considerations began to narrow the gap, and solar installations began to get support from various sources.
Governments initiated feed-in tariffs -- payments for energy delivered to the grid that are based on cost -- to encourage wider adoption. Germany, which had set ambitious goals for renewable energy as a percent of total power usage, was especially active in supporting solar.
The Great Recession put pressure on economies everywhere, and support for solar installations was reduced sharply. As a result, solar stocks, which were superstars, fell prey to overcapacity and demand constraints.
It has taken a long period of retrenchment via both bankruptcies and M&A activity for solar companies to regain their vigor, and for demand to rebound, and that process is continuing.
And the Chinese government’s program to encourage consolidation among producers (or the exit from the market of second- and third-tier producers) is improving supply/demand balances.
Trina Solar (TSL +2.72%), a Chinese integrated solar manufacturer that’s been around since 1997, is enjoying a confluence of several factors that are working in its favor.
First, the Chinese government has initiated a program of feed-in tariffs and low-cost loans for new solar projects.
This is only partly to support the solar industry; the government, under the direction of the new five-year plan, also sees increased solar production as a way to reduce air pollution.
Second, strengthening national economies are renewing incentives for new installations. Third, on Sept. 30, Deutsche Bank upgraded two Chinese solars to a buy rating. Trina was one.
With a market cap of just over $1 billion and annual sales of $1.3 billion, Trina Solar is a healthy business with excellent prospects for returning to profitability by the end of 2013.
The company expects to ship 2.4 gigawatts of solar cells this year, which is near the high end of its total capacity. Capacity increases are likely next year.
While Trina Solar is a very sound company, it’s the solar story that’s creating headlines. We like Trina for its strong global sales force, including its record of success in Japan. We rate the stock a buy.