Western Potash Corp. - Kali als Kurstreiber.
also wer es jetzt noch nicht schnallt.ich würde sagen ALL IN.
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Wertpapier: Western Potash |
da drückt jemand massiv rein.sehr gespannt was morgen ab geht.haltet eure teile gaaaanz fest.(: )
Ja tradingexperte , wie du schon geschrieben , kommt für uns eine
gute Zeit . Positive Zeichen , die da gesetzt wurden.
Bin so dreist, um zu behaupten, dass wir heute sogar
die 0,25 Euro sehen könnten.
einige blätter haben das ding ja angepriesen und werden hier regelmässig ihre jünger reinschicken.das wird für steigende preise sorgen.gut für die die schon drinn sind.solche singnale wie gestern muss man einfach deuten können.
die übernahme durch die chinesen sehe ich sehr positiv da das finanzierungsproblem damit weitestgehend vom tisch ist.die legen mal kurz 80 mio auf den tisch und fertig.
das ding wird ja dann ende august hoffentlich abgesegnet.oder kommt doch noch ein andere bieter?
wie lange läuft so ne mine.ich hab was von 40-50 jahre gelesen.na dann feuer frei mit dem kurs würde ich sagen.
auch drinn.hier entsteht was sehr grosses.rechne hier in 2 jahren mit kursen von 1-1,50 euro.
Moderation
Zeitpunkt: 10.07.15 12:07
Aktion: Nutzer-Sperre für immer
Kommentar: Doppel-ID - Von uschiw.
Zeitpunkt: 10.07.15 12:07
Aktion: Nutzer-Sperre für immer
Kommentar: Doppel-ID - Von uschiw.
Diesen Indikator sollte man nicht überbewerten.
für das kleingeld hätte sich einer der großen jederzeit einkaufen können, haben sie aber nicht. das nachbar projekt, was von den zahlen identisch ist, wurde für ca 400mio von K+S gekauft. etwas ist faul und das sieht man auch aktuell am chart, nichtmal der preis der chinesen wird gehalten, eine rakete sieht anders aus...
auch wenn sie bald fördern, warum sollten die chinesen den gleichen kali preis an wpx zahlen wie am weltmarkt? dann können sie gleich bei canpotex oder den russen weiter kaufen. sie wollen billiges kali und da bleibt nicht viel gewinn für wpx.
aktuell gibt es 230mio Aktien und die chinesen bekommen 250mio im August, daher verdoppelt sich die anzahl der Aktien.
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Wertpapier: Western Potash |
Jul. 10, 2015 11:10 PM • POT
Summary
Potash’s takeover offer has been rejected by K+S.
There were contradicting reports about whether Potash will raise its offer.
Recent acquisition of Western Potash by a Chinese company might prompt Potash to raise its offer.
The most important reason for Potash to acquire K+S is to have more control over global capacity and control prices.
In late June, Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) confirmed that it approached German rival K+S AG for a friendly takeover. POT offered euro 41 per share for the German company. The bid has already been rejected by K+S, citing the fact that it undervalues the company and the Legacy project. This morning contradictory reports came out. First it was reported that POT will raise its already generous offer. The second report though denied it. I noted a few days ago that a deal would make sense for Potash, given the current market environment. The question is whether the company should raise its existing offer, which as I noted has been termed generous by analysts.
According to Scotiabank analyst Ben Isaacson, Potash's offer for K+S shareholders is equivalent of winning a lottery ticket. K+S though thinks otherwise. Last week, the German miner said that not only was Potash's offer too low but the Canadian mining giant could also dismantle the company and slash jobs.
There is no doubt that one of the reasons for Potash interest in K+S is the latter's Legacy mine. As I noted in my earlier article, citing Scotiabank, K+S's cash costs at $230 per metric ton are one of the highest in the industry. Potash's cash costs per ton for the full year 2015 are expected to come in at $95 per ton. But the Legacy mine will have significantly lower cash costs once it goes into production.
But an even bigger reason for Potash to complete an acquisition of this scale is to increase its market share. The combination of Potash and K+S could control 27% of global potash capacity by 2017, according Scotiabank. Possibly more if Potash indeed dismantles K+S. Canpotex, which is a joint venture between three North American potash producers that includes Potash, would mine 44% of the global potash capacity by the same year. Considering that the biggest threat to the potash market right now is competition due to breakup of the Belarusian Potash Company (BPC) in 2013, controlling as much of the capacity as possible is crucial.
Potash producers, over the years, had been price makers as the market was essentially controlled by Canpotex and BPC. However, with the breakup of BPC, all that has changed. The most important players on the buy side, India and China, have more bargaining power. Indeed, both countries delayed signing their supply contracts this year as they negotiated on price. If Potash Corp. wants to continue to have a say over pricing, then consolidation is the only way forward.
A development this week might create even more urgency for Potash to complete a takeover. Western Potash Corp. this week announced that a Chinese company, Beijing Tairui Innovation Capital Management, acquired a 51% stake. The stake gives the Chinese company control over Western Potash. Tairui is investing C$80 million in Western Potash. The investment will help in bringing Western Potash's Milestone project into production. The project is in close proximity to K+S's Legacy project.
The acquisition of a majority stake in Western Potash highlights China's strategy, securing long-term supply at competitive prices. Indeed, the move would give China even more bargaining power in the potash market unless of course there is consolidation. In this scenario, Potash's acquisition of K+S makes even more sense. The question though is how much more Potash will be willing to pay, given that its existing offer is being seen as generous. In my opinion, raising the offer slightly would be beneficial for Potash in the long-term if it wants to maintain control over global supplies and support prices.
Disclosure: I am/we are long POT.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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Wertpapier: Western Potash |
This enfirces action: the later POT buys K+S the cheaper it will be;
the faster POT buys Western Potash the cheaper it will be, too.
Believe me, there is no such thing as a free lunch from Pat 'the Cooky' Varas!
You don't believe me? Call UBS;-)
Btw, I believe the Chinese knew about the POT bid for K+S since months and they played out their cards very well. They could get help from Rio in the future;-)
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/...#kuq6Kw7Jt0uTHk2R.99
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