United States: Business Conditions - Soft Patch or

United States: Business Conditions - Soft Patch or Moderate Growth?

hxxp://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

Richard Berner and Shital Patel (New York)

Business conditions decelerated in early November, according to the Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index (MSBCI), following three months of volatility that have obscured the underlying trend.
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Analyst Commentary by S&P Major Sector

Consumer Discretionary:
.... while the group continued to increase prices charged.
......... Employment over the past three months was mixed, but most groups plan on hiring over the next three months. No groups plan to increase capex.
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Consumer Staples:

Packaged food and beverage companies have increased prices over the past year, but household and personal care and food retailers have reduced them. Hiring plans are stable while the beverages companies plan to increase capex by 0-3% over the next 3 months.

Energy:

.......... and they raised prices charged by 3% or more over the past year.
..... the companies have plans to hire noticeably over the next three months. Oil services companies also have plans to increase capex by 10% or more.
Financials:

Prices were generally lower compared with a year ago. Bookings were lower for the mortgage finance companies. Large-cap banks were still cutting payrolls over the past three months although mortgage finance and multifamily REITs increased hiring somewhat. Mid cap banks plan to hire somewhat and increase capex by 0-3% over the next three months.
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Healthcare:

Three of the four groups increased prices charged by 3% or more. Hiring plans are flat for the group while healthcare distribution companies plan to increase capex by 0-3% over the next three months.
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Industrials:

Most groups increased prices charged, with the exception of business services and airlines.
......... All groups, with the exception of airlines and air freight and surface transportation companies, plan to increase capex over the next 1-6 months. Hiring plans are generally strong for the group.
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Information Technology:
........as conditions improved, and prices charged, bookings, hiring, and hiring plans all increased. .............. also plan to increase capex by 6-10% over the next three months.
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Materials:
All three groups increased prices charged by 3% or more. Hiring plans are flat for the sector, while the paper and forest products companies plan to increase capex by 10% or more.
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Telecommunications Services:
.......and prices charged continued to decline by 3% or more from a year ago. The telecom services companies were still cutting payrolls over the past three months and have no plans to step up hiring over the next three.
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Utilities:
.......... while prices charged continued to increase by 3% or more from a year ago. Utilities continue to cut payrolls over the past three months, and have no plans to increase hiring over the next three, although they do plan to increase capex by 3-6% over the next 1-6 months.
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Die reale Preisinflation durch höhere Energie-, Commodity- und Importpreise, die sich quer über die gesamte US-Industrie fortsetzt und ihre Effekte befindet sich nur in der Anfangsphase...und Jobs sind nirgendwo in den USA zu finden, wie die Zahlen aus dem Oktober beweisen, obwohl angekündigt wurde, das hunderte von Jobs in den USA geschaffen werden sollten.    

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