North American Palladium
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Right idea but two corrections. Your calculation gives AISC per oz of PD plus byproducts from producing that oz of PD since byproducts were included in the revenue. Since revenue is about 70% PD and 30% by-products you have to multiple your number by .70 to get the AISC per oz of PD. That gives about $1330. Then you should use produced ounces, not sold ounces since costs were incurred even if not sold in Q1. That brings it down to about $1200. Still way above market price.
Then there are various adjustments both ways that will make Q2 a little different - unusual weather related expenses, pre-payment interest expenses, forex adjustments.
All in all, I estimate Q2 to be -.03 to -.04 /share based on 366M shares. Maybe a bit larger per share loss depending upon the true average outstanding shares during Q2. L
Mir wird übel.
Aus dem yahoo-board:
Let's have a round of applause. Hats off to
the great management for performing such great magician acts. It's truly amazing! They take shareholders money and make it disappear! Impressive, eh? Their secret is out- take money knowing it will never return to their lifeblood shareholders while stringing them along with false hopes. Thanks for the display of incompassion and deceipt. Surely all the longs around here appreciatte it. Hope they never meet up with you all in any dark alleys, etc. It must suck to have to look over their shoulders all the time knowing they are outright wrong. and will keep doing it until there are no more believers. This company is hopeless. When is the devastating rollback taking place?
Mackie Research: SELL rating and $0.20 target price for North American Palladium Limited
According to Mackie Research:
is (dot) gd/oqctxv
North American Palladium Ltd.
Bumpy ride, but operating near full year guidance: Despite some bumps in the quarter, LDI’s Q2 operating results were largely in-line with our estimates. For the quarter underground production averaged ~2,900 tpd, slightly below the company’s operating guidance of 3,000 tpd for the first half of the year. The lower than expected underground production lead to the palladium head grade decreasing to 3.1 g/t from 3.3 g/t in Q1/14. We note the grade remains ahead of 2014 guidance of 3.0 g/t. Recoveries of 83.6% were below Q1/14 recoveries of 84.5% but were better than guidance of 82.0%.
Many questions remain unanswered: We remain concerned with the Company’s ability to meet its short and long term financial obligations. The company had a cash position of $44.3 million and a total debt balance of ~$247MM at the end of Q2/14. Subsequent to the end of Q2, PDL paid $23.5MM to Brookfield in order to revert back to a 15% annual interest rate from 19% previously. However to receive this rate PDL must also start making quarterly interest payments, which exceed the current income from operations. We continue to assume a $70 million financing in 2015 for interest payments and unknown capital expenditures in 2015 and 2016; however should no financing occur, PDL has enough cash to survive the next 2 quarters. Additionally with the Brookfield debt coming due in 2017, the company’s current cash flow is clearly insufficient to cover the sizeable repayment. The company is presently reviewing stope size and blast design, the possibility of running the mill on a full-time basis, and is evaluating a Phase 2 shaft sinking expansion; however, little information was provided on how PDL intends to meet its upcoming financial obligations. It is clear, however, that quarterly earnings from operations of $4.9MM will not suffice.
ACTION – SELL
We maintain our SELL recommendation and target price of $0.20/share
http://seekingalpha.com/article/...um-and-the-recurring-hiccup-theory
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/news/palladium
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- Tokyo Commodity Exchange Palladium Advances Over 2,900 Yen Per Gram
- Stricter emissions control in China to drive palladium prices higher
- Nickel and palladium will rise, says Goldman
Anfang des Jahres lag der Palladiumpreis bei 700 USD. Heute liegt er bei 863 USD = PLUS 23 Prozent. Anfang des Jahres war die NAP-Aktie 0,90 USD wert. Heute ist sie 0,26 USD wert.
Dieses MINUS müsste selbst die größten Optimisten nachdenklich stimmen. Ich hatte gehofft, dass die gestrigen Nachrichten ein positives Signal für die Anleger darstellen/dass die Nachrichten für ein wenig Stabilität der Aktie sorgen. Das Gegenteil ist der Fall.
Kein Land in Sicht. Was soll's, es geht ja nur um mein Geld.
GOOD NEWS turned into BAD NEWS again !!!
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Amazing !!! Fun Trading at Seeking Alpha probably does not even need to post his bashing article again this time as it seems that there is no more "short opportunity" for him. Thanks to whom cheap-sold the stock today since they created a great entry point again for the existing investors !!!
* Total Revenue: $50.497 million: Is this a bad news?
* - $0.03 per share: Is this a bad news?
* $510/oz cash cost: Is this a bad news?
* Average selling price $806/oz: Is this a bad news?
* 15% interest on BAM financing for future quarters: Is this a bad news?
* After paying the quarterly interest and $7.2 million of pre-payment penalty,
they still have apprx. $19 million in cash reserve: Is this a bad news?
* When adding back the non-cash cost of $8.174 million (Depreciation),
the true break-even point is $850/oz: Is this a bad news?
* Total production for Q3 may be less due to the fatality.
But they have apprx. 4,200 oz reserve in inventory: Is this a bad news?
* Palladium spot price now is hovering over $870 tested at $881: Is this a bad news?
* Foreseeable EPS at - $0.02 to $0.00 for Q3: is this a bad news?
* Predictable EPS at $0.01 to $0.03 for Q4: Is this a bad news?
* Feasibility for PPS surged over to $1.00 when there will be a positive EPS?: Is this a bad news?
If you believe that all these are bad news, you are investing in the wrong stock. Sell-off cheap and move onto other stocks, so the rest of stockholders can accumulate for muli-bagging opportunity !!!
Und noch ein paar Zahlen: Q2 = -10 MIO Dollar
P- VK 806 / Q3 VK Ca. 870 / Diff : 64 Dollar
= ca. 40000 x 64 Dollar = 2,5 MIO
Reserve 4000 x 870 Dollar = 3,5 MIO
Fehlen noch 4 MIO = Einsparungen oder höherer Durchsatz...
von Querschuss am 2. August 2014 in Allgemein
In den USA stiegen die Autoverkäufe (Total Light Vehicle Sales/ unbereinigte Originaldaten) im Juli 2014 um +9,1% zum Vorjahresmonat. Im Juli 2014 wurde ein Volumen von 1,435342 Millionen Personenkraftwagen inklusive Light Trucks, also Vans, Minivans, Sport Utility Vehicles (SUVs) und Pick Up’s verkauft.
Mach Ausverkauf von Palladium letzte Woche, geht`s hier wieder in die richtige Richtung....
P-Preis im Okt / Nov = ca. 906 Dollar.....
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http://online.barrons.com/news/articles/...03849404580057480159845728
By Mary de Wet
Aug. 2, 2014 2:55 a.m. ET
... (automatisch gekürzt) ...
http://online.barrons.com/news/articles/...03849404580057480159845728
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