Aixtron purpose of this thread
Süss Microtec just raised Order intake guidance by handsome 50%, guiding for H1 orders at 155-160m now vs. previously 100-110m - the key driver are investments into 5G roll-out.
Not sure how much of a read-x this is for Aixtron, but sounds like 5G roll-out continues at strengths..
Release here: https://www.suss.com/de/news-detail/adhoc/2020/...22-de-1986353/24817
Regards,
Fel
Any insights here if Aixtron has a client relationship with LG Displays?
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anbei ein interessanter Bloomberg Artikel von heute, der anzeigt, dass auch der nächste Treiber für Aixtron langsam Fahrt aufnimmt: Ladestationen für E-Autos.
Bzw höhere E-Auto Volumen werden natürlich auch den SIC Trend schneller vorantreiben, was sicher das größere Potential birgt. Viele Grüße! Fel
By Laura Millan Lombrana and Rachel Morison
(Bloomberg) -- The electric vehicle sector has been stuck
for years with a chicken-and-egg problem. Until there were
extensive networks of public charging stations, a critical mass
of people would never feel comfortable driving EVs—but until a
critical mass of people were driving EVs, there was no sense in
investing in extensive networks of public charging stations.
It may be the coronavirus pandemic that finally breaks the
stalemate. BloombergNEF’s latest Long-Term Electric Vehicle
Outlook predicts that EVs sales will experience a smaller dip
than traditional auto sales as a result of the broader economic
squeeze, and that they’ll bounce back more quickly once the
market recovers. EVs and the infrastructure needed to charge
them have also been a part of many of the stimulus packages
announced by European and Asian governments. Just in the past
few weeks, Germany included chargers in its €2.5 billion
proposed economic package, and the European Union announced that
it’s aiming to have 1 million public chargers by 2025, from
fewer than 200,000 today.
“There's absolutely a case for vehicle charging
infrastructure to be part of the recovery,” says Matt Allen,
chief executive officer at Pivot Power, a U.K. battery and
charging developer. Fast chargers demand large amounts of power
in one location and the installation is difficult and expensive,
he says. Government investment could help companies clear that
hurdle, create much-needed jobs, and give the economy a further
boost as the EV sector expands.
“It will make smaller, more niche projects more investable
because more EVs driving around mean a bigger customer base,”
Allen says, adding: “We want stimulus, not a long-term crutch
for the industry.”
The key is to get drivers past the so-called anxiety range,
or the fear of running out of battery life and winding up
stranded on the road. Until recently, however, that wasn’t a
challenge anyone particularly wanted to take on, says Javier
Guerra, a managing partner at private equity firm Satif Group
and an early investor in California plug-in venture ChargePoint.
Carmakers had no incentive to build chargers other brands could
profit from (Tesla Inc.’s chargers, for instance, only fit its
own cars and are mainly designed for home use), while utilities,
oil companies, and institutional investors considered the sector
to be too young, too risky, or both.
“When I started to look at [EV charging] back in 2016, very
few people saw the point, and there was little money to be
made,” Guerra says. Since then, the cost of EV batteries has
declined by 43%, according to BNEF, making EVs much more
accessible for the average car-buyer. That, together with
stricter emissions regulations in Europe and China, has
convinced large investors that EVs are poised for a
breakthrough.
Oil companies and utilities especially are well positioned
to dominate the EV charging market. Oil suppliers already
operate strategically located fueling stations for internal
combustion vehicles, and utilities control electricity
production and distribution networks.
“I don’t think there are clear winners yet,” says
Aleksandra O’Donovan, head of electric vehicles at BloombergNEF.
“Oil majors invest in EV charging either because they can or
must as it is mandated, and they can afford to hedge on the
future.”
Based on its estimates for EV adoption over the next 20
years, BNEF projects that 12 million public EV charging points
will be needed globally by 2040, up from fewer than 1 million
today. That will require a worldwide investment of about $111
billion.
Oil majors and utilities have rushed into the sector,
starting with Royal Dutch Shell Plc, which bought charging
network NewMotion in 2017; the company now owns or operates
142,000 chargers across Europe, and entered the U.S. market last
year with the purchase of infrastructure and software provider
Greenlots. Rival BP Plc, meanwhile, acquired Chargemaster and
its 7,000 stations for $170 million in 2018.
Utilities see the electrification of transport as a
potential savior. Global electricity consumption is expected to
slow as industries and appliances become more energy efficient,
but EVs could help prop up residential demand.
“As an electric vehicle user you don’t need to go to a
petrol station anymore—you leave your house fully charged. It’s
a completely different concept,” says Luis Buil, global head of
smart mobility at Spain’s Iberdrola SA. “We’re already in the
grid and we can guarantee that the power you charge your car
with is 100% renewable.”
Iberdrola announced in March that it would accelerate plans
to spend 150 million euros ($170 million) on its own fast
charging network. And French utility EDF, which already owned
over 100,000 charging points across Europe through its
subsidiary Izivia, acquired a majority stake in Pod Point in
February, which has more than 69,000 charge points in the U.K.
and Norway.
The holy grail charger for automakers, oil companies, and
utilities doesn’t require a grid connection at all. Shell and
Tesla, among others, are working towards building a mini-power
station with solar panels that can generate and store enough
energy to provide a consistent source of charge. If, or when,
available commercially, it would make electric vehicles and
charging infrastructure fully green.
It looks like SiC is leading vs GaN. Slight increase (7%) this year, but 25% into 2021.
https://www.ledinside.com/news/2020/6/huawei_vcsel_vertilite
In this Needham presentation last month, the IIVI CEO commented that in order for it to compete with CREE, it needs to expand into selling SiC epi wafers. The company is planning into this arena in 2021. The company is second to CREE in selling SiC wafers but no SiC epi wafers just yet.
I have posted about this Chinese company before. It is a 5 billion yuan startup on in 2019. This 5/12/2020 presentation says it has 3 Aixtron G5's for the initial manufacturing of GaN-on-Si. The plan is to establish 21 lines.
some interesting and Aixtron relevant comments by US Chip company Micron, last night: They expect continued healthy demand in the Datacenter end-market, driven by Asia; also they see a pickup in Consumer Segment, especially smartphones where they see growth in units 2021 (they just reported Q3-20) driven by 5G adoption.
Automotive is obviously down significantly at the moment, which is only partly relevant for Aixtron - they reported some delays in SIC qualifications at some customers in Q1. While overall interest and demand for Aixtron's SiC Technology remains high.
I continue to believe that we will see a continued high level of order intake in Q2 (around Q1 levels) and with these comments by Micron, we can most likely expect continued Order strengths in H2 with the VCSEL demand starting to recover (from currently low levels/0) in 2021.
Micron presentation: https://investors.micron.com/static-files/...8-4483-aedf-113943e52060
Regards,
Fel
The picture looks like an Aixtron 6" x 8 planetary reactor.
Just as a reminder: back in October as part of the 3Q19 presentation, 30 June was given as kind of a final D-Day/due date for the already now legendary Samsung OLED order (quotes from the 3Q19 CC: „We therefore now expect such order to be placed during first half of 2020.“ & „We have a clear view that this is going to happen throughout the first half of 2020.“) Obviously, this has not happened, but had been flagged already with the 1Q20 results. I.e. no surprise and no disappointment so far. However, I thought I can use this date to share a couple of thoughts and to ask for your feedback.
2Q Outlook
Don’t see any need to change my view of what I recently outlined here, i.e. am quite confident that the upcoming results do not disappoint (doesn’t necessarily mean that the share price reaction will be positive as outlined in the post):
https://www.ariva.de/forum/...f-this-thread-567236?page=18#jumppos469
EUR/USD in 1H2020
Looks OK to me with 1.10 on average in 1H2020 and 1.12 as latest, i.e. still a significant buffer for Aixtron’s guidance which is based on EUR/USD of 1.20.
MDAX in September
Seems we get some voluntary support from Wirecard, i.e. one more slot to be filled in September.
Other news
fel mentioned already the recent - good - newsflow, be it IQE, II-VI, Lumentum (showcased on Aixtron’s website), Micron, etc., i.e. from my point of view there is no reason to worry that the secular growth drivers for Aixtron might be at risk for the time being.
OLED order
Probably the most exciting topic for the rest of the year and something where we should expect newsflow over the coming weeks (at least on 23 July we should get some kind of update from the management). Appreciate any feedback from the board on my thoughts below:
Scenario 1
- No order from Samsung
- Timing of news? End of 3Q19, at latest by year-end?
- Aixtron confirms the end of the whole project and tries to find an interested party for the developed IP
- Aixtron guides to significantly reduced R&D cost, e.g. a positive 20 million Euro EBIT impact would lift 2021 EBIT consensus estimates by roughly 40%
- Not sure whether such news could be accompanied by a share buyback program (-> limited by Aixtron AG solo accounts?)
My take: initial share price hit (-10%?) to be expected as OLED potential will be priced out of the stock (of course one might argue that this is hardly priced in). However, I would see this reaction as rather short-lived given the market has finally clarity and due to the significant positive running P&L effect. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the share price to recover from the inital hit over a couple of trading days. Obvioulsy one of the key triggers for the shares would be gone and the other main growth drivers for Aixtron come into effect in 2021 only….i.e. continuation of the flat line share performance for a couple of months might be the result.
Scenario 2
- Samsung indeed places the order
- Timing of news? End of 3Q19 or earlier?
- 2020 order entry increases by some 30m (?), revenues benefit by same amount but only in 2021
- Market does not only price in the order entry/revenues in 2020/21, but also to a certain degree the potential for >100 million revenues on a mid-term basis.
My take: I would expect (hope for?) quite a significant share price reaction, e.g. in the +10-20% magnitude.
My gut feeling for the probability for the above scenarios: maybe 60% for scenario 2 and 40% for scenario 1.
My questions to you:
- Do I miss a scenario, is the above nonsense?
- Where do you differ in the assumptions?
- Which probability would you attach to the above scenarios?
Any feedback is highly appreciated! Natürlich auch gerne in deutsch.
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ich weiss, dass wir mittlerweile alle Experten in Silicon Carbide sind, aber nachdem mir ein Freund eben ein Review zum neuen Porsche Tycan (EV!) geschickt hat, muss ich doch diese Artikel hier nochmal kurz teilen.
Beim Lesen der Artikel wird schnell sehr klar, warum dies der absolut spannenste Trend für Aixtron in 2021-24 sein wird. Da wird ordentlich Wachstum kommen, vorrausgesetzt die Technologie erreicht a) den Massenmarkt und b) Aixtron kann weiter neue Kunden gewinnen.
Links:
https://thedriven.io/2019/09/12/...le-benefits-for-electric-vehicles/
https://insideevs.com/news/371247/delphi-800v-sic-inverter/
Viele Grüße,
Fel
Das gleiche gilt ja aber auch an allen anderen hier!
In letzter Zeit kann ich das für mich nicht behaupten..nicht dass ich auch großartig was mitzuteilen hätte.
Ein 3. Szenario wäre erneutes Aufschieben der Entscheidung seitens des Kunden aus welchen auch immer Gründen. Wie reagiert Aixtron?
Eine Möglichkeit wäre: ok, wir machen mit, weil wir ein realistisches Szenario sehen, dass das Projekt doch zum erfolgreichen Abschluss kommt, weil z.B. ein Fortschritt eideutig erkennbar ist.
Oder sagt Aixtron: ne, lieber Kunde, ich mach nicht mehr mit. Ade!
An Letzteres glaube ich nicht. Wenn aufgeshoben wird, dann wird es sicher einen Grund geben, warum man weiter macht. Samsung will auch nicht da resourcen reinstecken, wenn man nicht an den Erfolg glauben würde. Andererseits muß Aixtron genau anschauen, wie die Kosten-Nutzen REchnuing aussieht :)
Dlg, ich glaube die Kosten sind 25 Mio im Jahr (habe so im Kopf aber vielleicht irre ich mich)
Zu dem operativen Geschäft und Aussichten:
Beurteilend nach dem news flow sehe ich zunehmenden Aktivitäten beim Aufbau von supplychains für mini LED als Ersatz für die Hintergrundbeleuchtung, vor allem bei den chinesischen und taiwanesischen Players. Dazu kann sicher auch CWL was sagen. Aber auch bei micro LED tut sich mehr und mehr etwas. Noch dazu kommt die Leistungselektronik mit SiC und GaN. Besondern bei SiC (höhere Spannungen) scheint mir, dass immer mehr chinesische Unternehmen in den Markt rein wollen. Was ist wenn die chinesische Regierung es für strategisch sehr wichtig erachtet, dass die chinesiche Firmen in diesen Feldern ganz vorne mitmischen sollten? Kommen vielleicht Anreize wie damals für den BLU-Markt? (vielleicht zu viel geträumt aber dennoch)
Das stimmt mich positiv.
It only makes sense to go Gen 6 if FMM is employed. Gen 6 FMM exists, Gen 8 FMM does not.
Coincidentally, Aixtron has patented an OVPD Chamber that could load two glasses in one chamber with FMM. So if Samsung loads two gen 6 glasses using FMM at a time for OLED deposition, the productivity would equal one Gen 8 glass. Two Gen 6 glasses make four 65" TV. One Gen 8 glass makes three 65" TV with a few extra 35" monitor screens.
If Samsung takes this alternative approach, then QD is not required. I am only speculating that maybe Aixtron's OVPD has always been an alternative from QD-OLED technology by Samsung to enter the TV market. Canon Tokki takes the QD-OLED path.
As a result, Samsung could use the same OVPD for both TV and smartphone production. If that would be the case, Aixtron's OVPD market would be much much bigger than just for QD-OLED.
I understand that this is too drastic of a thought, so don't hold me to it.
how would you rate the following message?
http://www.thelec.net/news/articleView.html?idxno=1138
Regards,
bestfuture
Recently, we have finished this and started to set up a full-fledged facility starting with the 8.5th generation evaporator. When the production line setup is completed in the second half of this year, it will start production in earnest after the start-up of each stage from next year .
Zu Deiner Variante 3: ja, so ein Szenario könnte es natürlich auch geben – niemand läuft 42 Km Marathon, um dann 195m vor dem Ziel aufzuhören, weil man um genau 18 Uhr zum Essen zuhause sein wollte. Aber: die Aussagen vom Aixtron Management waren schon recht deutlich, dass man diese Sache so oder so zu Ende bringen muss/möchte („So I would say no, it’s not a never ending story, but we have a viewpoint where we want to end with it or where we come out of the tunnel in a positiv way“.) Hier geht es auch um die Kredibilität im Markt, den man jetzt schon lange genug hingehalten hat, und ggü den Aktionären, wie lange man eine jährlich so hohe GuV Belastung rechtfertigen kann.
Letzte Aussagen zum Timing war im 1Q Call wie folgt: „You asked the question, is it going to happen in the first half? That would give us two more months precisely from today, I think that would be overoptimistic, but I think it's a couple of months ahead.
Frage: „on OLED, again, but could you confirm or do you like to confirm that there will be a decision within the year 2020, so maybe not in the first half, but somewhere in the second half at the latest point in time? Would that be right to assume? Antwort: „Yes, definitely.“
Fel, vielen Dank auch für Deine Links. Bin mir noch nicht sicher, wie ich die eine Aussage werten soll: „To produce the 800 volt SiC inverter at volume, Delphi has partnered with silicon carbide semiconductor maker Cree in a deal that will see production of the inverters ramp up in 2022.“
Entweder negativ, da der ramp-up erst in zwei Jahren passiert oder positiv, weil die Bestellung bei Aixtron schon vorher passieren würde und dies ein Beleg ist, dass man auch für 2021/22 vernünftiges Wachstum bie Aixtron erwarten sollte.
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https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20200703PD209.html
Dieser hier klingt eigentlich noch spannender weil Aixtron-Kunde, aber dafür fehlt mir der Zugang:
„Mini LED opportunities: Q&A with Epistar president Fan Chin-yung“
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20200615PD206.html
Als Erinnerung: im 1Q20 Call wurden zig Kommentare zum LED Geschäft gegeben, u.a.: „In our MOCVD business, we are seeing solid interest around our mini and micro LED solutions, both for large display applications and for small wearable devices, like watches. (..) think the strongest portion of order intake came for LEDs. LEDs for mini LED and the other display, but not micro LED applications."
Und im 4Q19 Call war die Aussage „(…) we will see orders and we’re seeing order for mini and micro LED at the end, we distinctively say mini and micro LED because the tool can do both“.
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In any case: I like!
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"As Apple’s upcoming release of products featuring Mini LED backlight generates a growth in Mini LED demand, the company has also stimulated suppliers in the Mini LED supply chain to increase their production capacities."
"Although Chinese manufacturers currently possess enormous production capacity and cost advantages in the upstream and downstream LED supply chain, Apple has instead chosen to collaborate with Taiwanese manufacturers (which form a more stable supply chain), in an effort to avoid impacts from the China-U.S. trade war. In addition, Taiwan invested in LED R&D significantly earlier than China did, meaning it leads the latter in terms of both technological maturity and patents."
https://macdailynews.com/2020/07/08/...mini-led-ipad-pro-due-in-q121/