Trading Bougainville Copper (ADRs) 867948

Ich weiss ja nicht wovon dieser der Hr. Buskamp träumt, oder was seine Beweggründe sind, so einen Quatsch zu schreiben, aber die "massiven Liquiditätsspritzen" werden mit Sicherheit im Hypothekenmarkt und in den Banken versickern. Ansonsten wird die anstehende Rezession ihr übriges tun, um die Rohstoffe auf absehbare Zeit erstmal billiger zu machen.
Wenn dann - wie die OPEC es beim Öl macht - die Fördermengen gekappt werden, kräht einer Erhöhung nach dem Kupfer vom Bougainville erstmal kein Hahn mehr.

just my 2 cents.

bre

 

http://www.thenational.com.pg/102208/nation9.php

By AUGUSTINE KINNA
THE Bougainville executive council (BEC) has appointed the Bougainville administration operations officer, George Manu, as the acting Political Party Registrar for the forthcoming by-election.
Mr Manu was appointed by the BEC following a special sitting of the House of Representatives, who met to pass an amendment to the legislation relating to the issuing of writs.
He also advised all political parties intending to endorse candidates or to take part in the by-election to register with his office.
“This is a requirement for all parties to register and endorse their candidates in the by-elections with the office that I am going to hold,” Mr Manu said.
He urged political parties proposing to take part in the by-election to ensure they were registered before nominations on Nov 14.
Mr Manu said the political parties which were registered for the first Bougainville general elections in 2005 still remained registered for the purpose of the by-election.
Meanwhile, Bougain-
ville provincial returning officer Reitama Taravaru said preparations for the by-election were on track.
He said all outstanding claims for last year’s general elections had been sorted out.
“All our outstanding claims have been sorted out and there should not be any problem with that.”
He added that there was no need for disgruntled service providers to disturb the by-election because outstanding claims were now a non-issue.
“Time is catching up and the by-election must proceed as planned,” Mr Taravaru said.
During the polling, separate ballot papers would be used for the president’s seat and the Ramu constituency seat.
Mr Taravaru also appealed to all stakeholders in the region not to disrupt the by-election but let it run smoothly as planned.  

sollte unter: http://www.pngec.gov.pg/ schon ge-updated sein.

Nachdem das Parlament wegen unbezahlter Rechnungen seine I-net Leitungen abgeklemmt bekam scheints jetzt an It Spezialisten zu mangeln. ;-))))))))))))))

http://www.pngec.gov.pg/...rovincialOffices.php?province=bougainville  

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081022/rio_tinto_investment.html?.v=1

Wednesday October 22, 1:05 pm ET  
Rio Tinto adds $300 million to Canadian aluminum smelter modernization project


NEW YORK (AP) -- Rio Tinto PLC on Wednesday said it add $300 million to a project to modernize an aluminum smelter in Canada.
The world's second largest aluminum producer, which bought Canada-based Alcan Inc., said the project at the Kitimat aluminum smelter now has total funding over $500 million.

The project is intended to increase the smelter's production to about 400,000 tons per year from 245,000 tons, Rio Tinto said, and will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 40 percent per year

In afternoon trading, U.S.-traded shares of Rio Tinto fell $16.51, or 9.8 percent, to $151.24 amid a slide in the broader market. The shares have ranged from $136.83 to $558.65 over the past year.  

........soll nach dem Wunsch des Mittel B'ville MP Jimmy Miringtoro  bis Ende des Jahres für ganz Bougainville gelten ;-))))))))))

http://www.postcourier.com.pg/20081023/thhome.htm


Weapon-free district

SELAU/SUIR district in the Autonomous Region of Bougainville is leading the way by becoming the first weapon-free district on the island.
Leaders from the district declared on Thursday that there would be roadblocks to be manned jointly by the police and ex-combatants leading into the district from other areas as a check-point for illegal firearms that are brought into the district.
Local leader and businessman Isuvius Omi said weapons had been used to threaten people in the district and people had lived in fear of being attacked by armed men.
He was speaking during a reconciliation ceremony held in his Sanakova Village. The ceremony marked the end to a feud between the people of Suir and himself, after armed men from Suir held him up while he was in their area examining feeder roads.
He said he was proud of his people as they had taken ownership of the reconciliation process among themselves and this would eventually lead to weapons disposal.
“I am proud to say that the people of Selau /Suir are leading the way in weapons disposal and this will pave the way for other districts on Bougainville to dispose weapons as well,” Mr Omi said.
He said there would be check-points at Rawa and also at Bonis so that people carrying weapons would be checked and their weapons locked away in containers so that they could be picked up when people leave the Selau/Suir district.
Although no weapons were surrendered during the reconciliation ceremony, Mr Omi said at least two weapons would be disposed of after an agreement is signed between the chiefs and ex-combatants.
During the ceremony, ex-combatants from Selau also reconciled with ex-combatants from Suir, hugging each other while others shed tears as it was the first time some of them said sorry to each other for the atrocities committed during the bloody Bougainville crisis.  

....dass Invincibles Goldraffinerie in Arawa dicht gemacht hat scheint zu stimmen.Auch ihr "Communiction Center" ist jetzt geschlossen.(Wegen unbezahlter Rechnungen ;-))))))))))

....the comm center run by Invincible in Arawa is cut off due to unpaid bills so no emails from Arawa for almost two months now.

hear from you,

Regards,


Ende des Monats kommt es im PNG Parlament zu einer Anhörung zum Invincible Deal.Die Chancen stehen gut dass der gesamte Deal für ungültig erklärt wird.Auch wenn Invincible keine direkte Konkurenz für BCL dargestellt hat,so hat deren Versuch sich alle nicht von BOC gehaltenen Leases zu sichern (incl.Banklizenz,Fischerei- und Tourismusmonopol etc) doch für einige Verwirrung auf Bougainville gesorgt.

 

www.asx.com.au/asx/research/CompanyInfoSearchResults.jsp

...no production since 15 May 1989!!!

Das kennen wir doch, vielleicht ändert sich ja bald mal etwas...

Haltet durch!

 

http://www.thenational.com.pg/102408/biz2.php

By JASON SOM KAUT
RURAL people now have the opportunity to access affordable, reliable and safe source of electricity.
This became possible with the launching of the Sustainable Energy Financing Project (SEFP) at the Lamana Hotel last Wednesday.
SEFP will have a dramatic impact in improving the lives of people on many fronts including healthcare, education, security, communications and the generation of cash income from small enterprises, according to Tendai Gregan, World Bank energy specialist.
The SEFP is the World Bank’s first regional project for financing renewable energy in the Pacific, covering Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Fiji, Vanuatu and Marshall Islands.
The primary aim of SEPF was to improve the access of rural people to affordable, reliable and safe energy services, Mr Gregan said.
He noted that less than 10% of the population has access to electricity.
“For many of these people, key energy services such as lighting are either unaffordable or make up a large percentage of household expenditure, particularly given the current high costs of kerosene and diesel,” Mr Gregan said.
The SEFP is a three-way public private partnership aimed at providing affordable financing for the purchase of stand-alone, off-grid, electricity generation technology by individuals, village communities and local business.
The project is being supported by the World Bank, PNG Sustainable Energy Ltd (PNGSEL) and ANZ Bank.
The World Bank has provided technical assistance and loans that offset some of the risks faced by the private lender – the ANZ Bank.
PNGSEL is the governments nominated agency for executing the project and is instrumental in selecting products and retail partners, the marketing campaign and overall coordinating of the project.
The project would see the rural majority having access to affordable financing terms with loan repayment over five years.
It would also provide quality renewable energy products, raise awareness on installation and maintenance and create network of good retailers for advice and support.  

http://www.thenational.com.pg/102408/nation31.php

AUSTRALIA’s parliamentary secretary for international development assistance Bob McMullen will visit PNG to discuss details of its aid development package with the Government next month.
“I am going to PNG in the first week of November to have discussions with the Government about parts of the development agreement our two prime ministers signed that is based on the expectation that our aid spending in PNG will go up; and I do expect that to be the case,” Mr McMullen said in Canberra, Australia.
He could not say by how much the aid might increase.
“Most of our aid is spent in the Pacific and East Asia.
“We are going in future to do a little more in Africa and a little more in South Asia – India, Pakistan and that area – but we will still be principally in the Pacific and East Asia and that’s where we have our biggest programme, but, as it grows, we will do a little bit more in the other areas like Africa and South Asia,” he said.
Mr McMullen said under the Port Moresby Declaration, signed early this year, the Australian government was committed to taking a new approach to working with countries of the Pacific through special partnership agreements.
 

Danke an nekro für die schöne Zusammenfassung vor ein paar Tagen.  :D
Ist immer gut, wenn man dieses in solchen Zeiten noch mal lesen kann. Das gibt ein wenig Hoffnung  !!
Wobei ich natürlich die Fortschritte über die vielen Jahren sehe und nach wie vor positiv gestimmt bin, trotz der Börsenlage.

In diesem Sinne, fröhliches WE.
Ich werde heute wieder Laufen gehen, man hat ja sonst keine Beschäftigung mehr    *ggg*  

Die Performance seit Threaderöffnung lädt ja im Grunde genommen nicht gerade zum Einstieg ein,aber bei welcher Aktie ist jetzt schon das Gegenteil der Fall :-((

Trotzdem ist BCL zum aktuellen Kurs für Langfristanleger äusserst interessant.

Im November wird die Hatch Konzept Studie zur Wiedereröffnung der Pangunamine eröffnet.

Kommt es dann zu dem politischen Konsens und wird auf die Wiedereröffnung hingearbeitet,so

sollte als erstes Kursziel die 3,35 USD (2,62 €) des Pritzkerangebotes aus 1994 angepeilt werden.

Sollte es der Aktie tatsächlich gelingen, in den nächsten Jahren dieses Ziel zu erreichen, ergeben sich per heute folgende durchschnittliche Jahresrenditen (die durchschnittliche Jahresrendite ist wie der Zins auf einem Sparbuch).

Durchschnittliche Jahresrendite in % pro Jahr bei Erreichen von 2,60 € bis

Ende 2009: 550% (unwahrscheinlich)

Ende 2010: 275% (ambitioniert)

Ende 2011: 183% (hm)

Ende 2012: 137.5% (why not)

Ende 2013: 110% (gut möglich)

Ende 2014 92% (wahrscheinlich)

Ende 2015 Bei wieder voller Produktion ist Kurs und % um den Faktor XX zu multiplizieren ;-)))))))))))))))))

Bougainville will 2015 ein Referendum über die Unabhängigkeit von PNG abhalten.Dass eine politische "Independance"
ohne wirtschaftliche unmöglich ist ist weiss auch das ABG.Die einzige Möglichkeit substanzielle Einnahmen in diesem Zeitrahmen zu generieren ist die Wiedereröffnung der Pangunamine.

Wer darauf spekulieren will dass das gelingt für den ist jetzt vielleicht der ideale Einstiegszeitpunkt.;-))))))))))))  

http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/news/stories/...01028.htm?tab=latest

Updated October 25, 2008 09:00:05

A senior Bougainville government minister says there's no stand-out candidate for next week's by-election in the autonomous PNG region.

With just a week before nominations open for the by-election created after the death of former president Joseph Kabui in June, there's no clear indication as to who the candidates would be.

Bougainvilleans will go to the polls from November 29th to December 12th to elect a new leader.

Bougainville Trade and Commerce Minister, Joseph Watawi says there are a number of potential candidates from those who once fought alongside Joseph Kabui for Bougainville autonomy
 

und 1 Jahresvergleich zu Dax und Dow.....

....... hat unsere BOC immer noch die Nase vorne ;-)))))))))))


http://www.ariva.de/chart/...&clean_bezug=0&box5view=0&save_presets=0

Wer seit Swens 1 Studie Ende 05 investiert ist (a 0,22 € ) ist zumindest mit seinen Erstpositionen immer noch komfortable 50% im Plus.

Auch beim gestrigen selloff haben die BOC Aktionäre nicht mitgemacht.Lediglich 10K ADRs wurden in Aktien getauscht.In diesen turbulenten Börsenzeiten liest sich Taylors Quarterly........no production since 15 May 1989!!! doch äusserst beruhigend.;-))))))))))))

Wer schon als Aktionär folgende News mitverfolgt hat.....

die Wahl Kabuis zum Präsidenten,

die Landung und das Verschwinden 2er verdächtiger Weisser ("Sir"  Joffrey u.?) in der No-Go-Zone,

Ona's mysteriösen Tod,

Abzug der Ramsi,

Veröffentlichung des "Landowners Proposal"

Musingku's (Selbst) Krönung zum King Pei ,

das Auftauchen und verschwinden (bis auf 1) seiner Fiji Missionarssöldner, zwecks Umsturz ,

die (angebliche) übertragung aller Leases (incl.die von BOC) an Ord River,

den Angriff der BFF auf Musingkus Hauptquartier,

U-Vistract Ankündigungen und canceln der Auszahlung der bei ihm "investierten" Anlegergelder

die Moti Affaire und die folgende "Eiszeit" zwischen Australien und PNG,

Abweisung der Klage gegen RIO wegen Völkermord in USA u. anschliessendes Berufungsverfahren ,

Semple und sein Invincible Resources Deal,

Start der PNG Mineral Resources Autority,

Wahl des pro BCL Kandidaten Puka Temu zu deren Direktor,

die Eröffnung und Schliessung von deren "Goldraffinery" in Arava,

Kabuis Flug zu Gesprächen mit Rio nach London,

Motto 2008 Weapons Disposal Programm

Eröffnung eines Landowner Sekretariats in Arawa,

Scrapmetaldeal zwischen BCL und Landowners,

JSB Meetings mit u.a. die Einigung PNG/ABG zur 50:50 Aufteilung des zu erwartenden Steueraufkommens,

Ankündigung der übertragung der Miningpower ans ABG,

diverse Reconciliation Meetings,Roadblock Erstellungen und Liftings,

Abfackeln des Bürgerhauses in Arawa,

Veröffentlichung von Kaufempfehlungen durch div. BB's (Kingstrade,Profit-Hunter,Austria BB)

Ankündigung des BCL 3 Jahresplans zur Wiedereröffnung der Pangunamine,

Canceln der Veröffentlichung der Magnitude Studie durch BCL für August,

Einladung und canceln Kabuis an BCL zu Gesprächen,

Start des Weltbanktrainings der MRA,

Nominierung von Steve Burien (Ex BCL Mitarbeiter) zum Chef der MRA

Vergabe zur Erstellung der Minenkonzeptstudie an Hatch

Up-Dates von Swen

Landeigner Statement "We want BCL back"

Ankündigung der Veröffentlichung der Hatch Studie für November,

Ankündigung der Präsidentenwahl für November,

Bekanntgabe des neuen Präsidenten für den 23 Dezember,

Ankündigung des Abschlusses der Reconciliation Meetings für Dezember,

Terminierung der Anhörung zum Invincible Deal Ende Oktober im PNG Parlament,

etc.etc.etc.

......,der ist schon in gewissem Masse abgehärtet und gerät auch bei  so einer "kleinen" Finanzkrise nicht in Panik und drückt auf den Verkaufsbutton, zumal das "Schlimmste" jetzt überstanden zu sein scheint.Die aktuelle Nachrichtenlage suggeriert dass bei BCL demnächst alle Ampeln auf Grün springen könnten.

Dazu eine mail von Eric,dem Reporter vom Postcourier

I see BCL shares are not doing too well on the stocks but I have
spoken to certain MPs from the ABG who are now realising the BRDC deal
as something that will cause them their seats in the next elections
and are now talking about reopening the Panguna mine. That is good
news from here. And they want it reopened by BCL and in the next 1 and
half year.  

http://www.pacificmagazine.net/news/2008/10/26/...ek-for-a-new-leader

Die scheinen da wohl etwas zu verwechseln ;-)))))))))))))))))))

Voters on the island of Bougainville, off the coast of Papua New Guinea, go to the polls this Wednesday to elect a new leader to replace the late Joseph Kabui.

Kabui who died in June this year was a secessionist leader and the first President of the autonomous Bougainville from 2005. He was also leader of the Bougainville People's Congress. Kabui was a commander in the Bougainville Revolutionary Army during the war in Bougainville in the 1990s. In June 2005, after the island gained autonomy within Papua New Guinea, he was elected President by a large majority, winning 38,000 out of 69,385 votes

Bougainville's Trade and Commerce Minister, Joseph Watawi told Radio Australia that there is no stand-out candidate for this week's by-election that will run from November 29th to December 12th.

However, he said there are a number of potential candidates who once fought with Kabui for Bougainville's autonomy.  

...zumindest bei den Aktien ;-))))))))))))))  

........headed by Steve Burien (an ex BCL employee) have started a program of visitation of districts to come up with policy parameters of mining. They covered Panguna first and the landowners want to go ahead with mining.

....The top three contenders are all for BCL mining and they are : Sam Akoitai, Nick Peniai and James Tanis.

.....BCL is holding a Board meeting in Sydney mid November. I think the pre-feasibility study report will be announced soon thereafter.

.....I can see lot of pluses compared to the scenario in May 2008.

regards,  

..........My younger brother rang me this morning to brief me on the progress at Konou. He took on Moikui's car some families from Konou to Tonu to see their children to brief them on the progress on the peace deal by the chiefs. They are now discussing to have peace with the Wisais.  
May be looking after the cows may help them to rehabilitale them. They assured their parent that they want to go back to their village. They took him to their hideout at Tonu and said felt that they must be coming back to their senses.  

http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/news/stories/...03651.htm?tab=latest

Aid agencies in the Pacific are struggling to deliver adequate sanitation and water programs to isolated communities in the region.

One in three people living in rural and remote communities do not have access to water hygiene and sanitation facilities.

Pauline Komolong, a water engineer working for Oxfam in Papua New Guinea and the autonomous Bougainville province has told the Sanitation and Water conference in the Australian city of Melbourne, the aid agency is struggling to meet the challenge of delivering services to remote communities.

"Some of the challenges are such things as the terrain where it's impossible getting there; sometimes you walk across gushing rivers, climb mountains and when you are transporting materials sometimes it taks a long time because of all the logistics that are involved," she said.

The conference, which includes representatives from United Nations agencies, aid agencies and the World Bank, was organised as part of the International Year of Sanitation.

World Vision says in in 2004 in Southeast Asia and the Pacific, 100 million people were estimated to be living without safe water and 185 million without adequate sanitation.  

von Bill Bonner

Zum Rohstoffmarkt befragt, antwortete mein alter Freund Rick Rule mit dem folgenden Kommentar:

Es wird einen sehr interessanten Kriegszug geben. Auf der einen Seite wird es eine sehr schnell abnehmende Nachfrage aus den entwickelten Ländern geben. D.h. eine Rezession in den Vereinigten Staaten und im westlichen Europa. Auf der anderen Seite wird es eine standhaftere Nachfrage von den Schwellenmärkten geben, als die meisten Leute glauben. Das liegt ganz einfach daran, dass die Bilanzbögen der Schwellenländer besser sind, als wir gewohnt sind.


Ich gehe davon aus, dass die sehr deutlichen Bewegungen bei den Rohstoffpreisen hinter uns liegen. Ich glaube, dass diese Bewegungen nicht die Produktion an den Verbrauchermärkten spiegelten. Viel mehr standen sie mit den Finanzspielern in Zusammenhang, die sich mit den neuen Carry-Trades befassten, die auch mit den geringen amerikanische Zinssätzen zu tun haben, da, wo die Leute bei Rohstoffen einkauften und den Dollar leerverkauften. Ein Geschäft, das ein Jahr lang gut funktionierte, und das sich auf sehr, sehr aggressive Weise abwickelte. Ich gehe also davon aus, dass der scharfe Abwärtstrend, den wir erlebten, in einigen Teilen schon wieder hinter uns liegt. Er wird vermutlich bei den Grundmetallen durch einen knirschenden Abwärtstrend ersetzt. Dabei wird es vermutlich nicht viel tiefer gehen, aber es wird vermutlich noch vier bis sechs Monate länger andauern."

 

http://www.postcourier.com.pg/20081029/wehome.htm

............hier könnten,nach dem missglückten Invincible Deal und dem damit einhergehenden Vertrauensverlust der Bevölkerung in diverse ABG Minister jetzt möglicherweise einige pro BCL Kandidaten aufrücken.;-)))))

Ministry for ABG member

BOUGAINVILLE Regional MP Fidelis Semoso would be the country’s Education Minister.
The announcement is still unofficial but news of the appointment has reached the paper from Morauta Haus and the Autonomous leaders.
Mr Semoso travels to Port Moresby today for a possible swearing-in ceremony before the end of this week.
His appointment comes after former minister and South Bougainville MP Michael Laimo’s election to Parliamen has been annulled by the National Court. He was unseated by New Generation party candidate Steven Karma.
Officials from the Government House yesterday said they were advised of a swearing-in ceremony to take place this week but no set date. They could not comment further.
Meanwhile, the Government officials yesterday told tthis paper that the appointment of Mr Semoso as the Education Minister was part of the reform that will be announced after the November budget session.
Names had been floating since last week which will see several ministers being moved around from their current ministries.
They said a full reshuffle of ministers and their ministries should be announced after the November 18 session.

 

http://www.thenational.com.pg/103008/nation31.php

Weapons disposal a priority for ABG

By LYDIA GIRANA

RECONCILIATION and weapons disposal remains the Autonomous Bougainville Government’s (ABG) priority and must produce positive results prior to the referendum for independence taking place between 2015 and 2020.
Last March, the ABG set up the Bougainville Reconciliation Steering Committee headed by deputy administrator for operations George Manu to initiate and manage the reconciliation and weapons disposal programme.
Mr Manu said the final institutional body to be established would be a reconciliation and weapons disposal consultative body to help the ABG administration monitor and evaluate the progress of the programme.
“This body is to be chaired by a key political member of the Bougainville House of Representatives, factional leaders, women, youth, church groups and business community,” he added.
Mr Manu, who had just returned from Siwai after successfully launching the reconciliation programme for Siwai, Bana and Torokina in South Bougainville and Wakunai in Central Bougainville, said the ABG was committed to the programme.
“My committee has started orientation workshops at district level to ensure the district reconciliation steering committee is well-versed with the policy,” he said.

 

http://www.thenational.com.pg/103008/nation31.php

Fifty-four tourists from Australia, New Zealand, Germany...;-)))))))))))))

By AUGUSTINE KINNA

THE Autonomous Region of Bougainville yesterday came alive when a tourist ship, mv Oceanic Discoverer, anchored outside the Buka passage.
Fifty-four tourists from Australia, New Zealand, Germany, Spain and England went ashore to visit the Autonomous Bougainville House of Representatives, Japanese World War II caves at Hahela, the Hutjena botanical garden and the Buka market.
Many of the tourists bought shell necklaces, Siwai baskets, carvings, bows and arrows and other artifact.
At the Kuri Village Resort, traditional groups and students entertained them with bamboo band music and Solomon Islands dances.
Tour director Lawrence Belleh said this was the fourth time tourists had visited Bougainville.
“Bougainville has a lot to offer in terms of tourism, and the industry has a huge potential to develop the economy and assist in the recovery process in the region,” he said.
ABG Minister for Trade and Industry Joseph Watawi thanked the tourists for visiting the region and urged them to return some time in the future.
Mr Watawi also assured the tourists that Bougainville was safe and was a lost paradise in the Pacific.
 

Kauforders von + - 50K über 0,60 AUD stehen nur noch  VK Orders über 60K bis 2,50 AUD gegenüber.

Eine Mini Kauforder über ganze 750 St sorgte heute schon für einen Kurssprung von 21%,2K hätten schon für über 50% Kursanstieg gereicht ;-))))))

Mit der Veröffentlichung des Hatch-Reports und den Präsidentschaftswahlen besteht somit im Nov-Dez. jede Menge Potential.

BOC Sellers

Price Quantity Sell
 
0.850   1000
0.960   8,550
0.965 10,000
1.200   5,000
1.400   5,000
1.600   5,000
1.630   7,000
1.650   7,500
2.000   5,000
2.400   5,000
2.500         0  

http://seekingalpha.com/article/...-to-acquire-rio-tinto?source=yahoo

By Julian Murdoch

It's been a while since we last checked in with Rio Tinto. But it's a bellwether that investors should come back to now and then, just to get a sense of where commodities equities are headed.

Like the rest of the market, Rio Tinto has been halved in the stock market's downward slide - down 58% from its closing high of $525.46 on May 22. Even Tuesday's 13% increase is cold comfort compared with the good ole days of spring. So what's the deal?

Shark Still Circling

Well, the deal is still not BHP.

BHP Billiton is still trying to acquire Rio Tinto in a 3.4-to-1 stock deal.

Back in November 2007, when the bid was new (and offered at 3-to-1) Rio Tinto said no on the basis it devalued the company. The International Herald Tribune said at the time:

Rio on Thursday rejected BHP's offer pitched at a premium of about 14 percent to Rio's Australian share price at the time, saying it was too cheap. Rio itself this year was forced to pay a 65 percent premium to acquire Canada's Alcan Inc at a cost of $38 billion, paid for it with debt.

As the implications of the takeover trickled through the market and investors weighed in, actual stock price ratios changed. Within a couple of weeks the actual ratio of the shares in the market was way over the proposed bid, at 3.3-to-1, forcing BHP to up the bid in February of 2008 to the current 3.4-to-1 offer.


Since then, there's been a steady erosion in the price of both companies, but BHP has managed to retain more value than Rio Tinto. Theoretically this means the deal is sweeter for Rio, but that situation may be shifting again, as in the very short term, Rio shares have been gaining on BHP. These latest market ups and downs have highlighted a real problem with this type of stock-only deal - the constant re-valuation of the deal with every change in stock price.

Last week, Rio Tinto was forced to deny rumors that it was entering actual talks with BHP about its bid, after big unexplained gains in its stock price. That denial (an actual official one) resulted in falling stock prices for both companies, once again changing the deal valuation.

On the regulatory side of the story, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) released a statement in the beginning of October stating that it was not opposed to BHP's bid to take over Rio Tinto. ACCC Chairman Graeme Samuel said:

While significant concerns were raised by interested parties in Australia and overseas, the ACCC found that the proposed acquisition would not be likely to substantially lessen competition in any relevant market.

South Africa has also approved the takeover bid, provided BHP sells the interest in the Coega Aluminum Smelter project it would acquire in the deal. These kinds of pre-negotiated approvals for hostile takeovers aren't unheard of, but in the realm of corporate warfare, they can often seem a little absurd.

On the other hand, the European Union is still investigating what its position will be on the merger. Japan will reportedly lobby for the EU to block BHP's bid because the two companies supply about 60% of Japan's iron ore, making Japan's steelmakers understandably nervous about increasing costs.

Working Together?

The irony of all the back-and-forth is that Rio Tinto and BHP are actually on the same side of a long-term legal battle to defend their rights to railways they built in Australia. Fortescue Metals Group has been fighting for access to the railways for years, and this past Monday, the Australian government upheld the recommendation by the ACCC that will allow third parties access to three key lines for the next 20 years.

Rio Tinto has said it will contest the decision on the grounds that it will reduce the amount of ore it will be able to transport on the railway. Rio Tinto told Bloomberg that "the ruling may cost Australia A$30 billion [$18 billion) and will risk further investment in iron ore production." BHP is also unhappy with the ruling, concerned about disruptions and delays of their own ore. For once, Rio Tinto and BHP can agree on at least something.

The Business Of Business

Rio Tinto released a third-quarter operations review on October 15. Global iron ore production was up 17% over the third quarter 2007. Australian coking and thermal coal as well as U.S. coal all were up over 3Q07. The weak point was (surprise) copper, which showed an overall 7% decrease in mined copper compared with 3Q07 due to "operational interruptions" (stuff broke) at its Escondida mine.

It is all well and good that production numbers are growing, but is there demand for Rio Tinto's products? When you talk about things like demand for iron ore, copper, coal and aluminum, you inevitably talk about China. And China's economy, while still growing, has slowed down. The third quarter review says it all:

There has been a deceleration in Chinese growth, which is expected to fall from nearly 12% in 2007 to less than 10 per cent this year. The slowdown is a product of tight credit policies in China that were introduced late last year to address inflationary concerns. These are only now being relaxed.
While apparent demand for steel making raw materials, copper and aluminum has slowed, lower prices mean that Chinese producers are facing margin pressure and should be expected to cut their production. For example, it is likely that the vast majority of Chinese aluminum producers are now making operating losses.

So it's good news/bad news. Bad news: slowing demand and declining prices for copper and aluminum (and almost everything else in commodity land). Good news: Rio Tinto is seeing the silver lining - lower prices mean that less-mature companies - the ones that rely on higher prices for commodities to make their margins - just can't do business is this climate and will be closing. Long term (very), that could be good news for the big boys.

Forward-Looking Statements


In the short term, Merrill Lynch is forecasting China's copper demand to grow at 9% next year, slightly up from this year, but lower than the previous year's growth rate of 13%. Looking long term, Rio Tinto's CEO Tom Albanese said that demand for products such as copper, aluminum and iron ore is expected to double by 2022. Rio Tinto is currently reviewing its capital investments in both the short and long term in order to put itself in the best position to take advantage of that expected recovery. And after all, while the rest of the world is talking about actual contraction, we're still talking about nearly double-digit growth in China - maybe not the tiger it was just a year or two ago, but still one of the fastest-growing commodity consumers in the world.  

Aus Rohstoffsignale

Nach dem „Blutbad“ der letzten Wochen mehren sich nun die Anzeichen dafür, dass die Korrektur
ausläuft. So langsam realisieren offensichtlich immer mehr Marktteilnehmer, dass eine Rezession in den USA nicht weltweit die Nachfrage nach Rohstoffen fallen lässt. So ist z.B. die chinesische Volkswirtschaft im dritten Quartal um 9% (!) gewachsen – und dort bestehen weiter milliardenschwere Infrastruktur-Programme für den Westen des Landes. Weiterhin wachsend ist auch die Nachfrage aus Volkswirtschaften wie Thailand oder Indien. Wir werden uns umgewöhnen müssen: Nicht mehr die USA werden das Maß aller Dinge sein (was Rohstoff-Nachfrage betrifft), sondern mehr und mehr die „Emerging Markets“, insbesondere China. Bei vielen Rohstoffen ist China
bereits die Nummer 1, was die Nachfrage betrifft.