Aixtron purpose of this thread
May I ask for the forum’s view on the Siltronic takeover? Is this i) neutral for Aixtron, ii) positive as additional orders from Globalwafers might be coming, iii) negativ/risky as Globalwafers might change the Siltronic suppliers? (https://www.aixtron.com/de/presse/...t%20AIXTRON-Anlage%20hoch_n1560)
I would also like to tap your brains on the Gen 2 OVPD news on 18 Dec…how should we interprete this news? Is it kind of a “given” that there will be a Phase III order following the logic of “why should Samsung und Apeva jointly develop a new technology over a couple of years just to stop it after a successful Phase II completion?” Aixtron was neutral by saying that “The decision for such phase III is open at this point in time.”, but would there be any plausible reason in your view to stop it now?
Any other guesses on how long it could take for a decision to enter into Phase III (potentially part of Aixtron's 2021 revenue guidance?), on the potential Euro amount of such a step + revenue recognition timing and on next week’s lottery numbers are highly appreciated!
In terms of analyst coverage: we do have 5 analysts with a „Buy“ rating and a share price target below today’s share price (see below) . In other words: the risk of a downgrade seems quite elevated unless these analysts follow DZ & Oddo with substantial price target increases.
Lampe: 12.5 Euro
DB: 14 Euro
Barclays: 13 Euro
Liberum: 14 Euro
Warburg: 14 Euro
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"In its 14th Five-year Plan for 2021-2025, China will funnel CNY10 trillion (US$1.53 trillion) to support the development of third-generation semiconductors including SiC (silicon carbide), which will be increasingly applied to 5G base stations, EVs, charging piles, AIoT systems, and more, prompting many Chinese firms to deepen presence in the segment, the sources said."
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20201230PD205.html
Ich bedanke mich für Euere Beiträge und wünsche uns allen ein guten neues Jahr 2021
bestfuture
I believe that after the qualification of the Gen 2 system without an immediate follow up order or contract, the binding exclusivity obligation by Aixtron is over, and Aixtron is now free to move on. This could change if a Phase III with Samsung comes. However, Samsung would now be specific on the end products. If it is for the QD-OLED TV only, then APEVA should be free to market OVPD to all the non QD-OLED TV applications.
Just my two cents.
after some time of absence (read but had nothing valuable to contribute) I thought I might make an appearance again today with 2 bits:
1. Dialog Semi upgraded Q4 guidance today based on strong 5G phone demand. Positive for Aixtron in the form of a continuation of base station 5G buildout and upgrades. I note that the 5G driver for inside the phone will only kick in later (in 2-3 years I guess) for Aixtron. But certainly good to see the consumer uptake of 5G
Here is the link:
https://www.it-times.de/news/...5g-mobiltelefonen-und-tablets-137547/ utm_source=finanznachrichten.de&utm_medium=CustomFeed
2. This is a very bottom up and probably not representative observation, but I talked to Deutsche Telekom today as a consumer and they said that the new iPhone 12 Mini (e.g. latest iPhone) now has a 4-6 week waiting list.
I remember times when every analyst talked of peak iPhone and increasing competition in China. This certainly does not seem to be the case based on my sample (n=1)..
I note that in the past Chip stocks used to correlate with iPhone shipments and/or sentiment.
All a healthy and successfull 2021 - may our strong collaboration in this Forum continue!
Regards,
Fel
In my last posting I mentioned five analysts with a buy rating whose price target was below the current share price and that this will result in either target price adjustments or downgrades. We now have the answer on two of the five: one downgrade (Warburg) and one target price increase (Liberum from 14 to 16.50 Euro). Barclays, DB and Bankhaus Lampe still open.
Btw, latest MDAX ranking has been published last week:
MDAX / MC / TO
Aixtron / 95 / 79
Osram / 97 / 92
Aareal / 102 / 88
Metro / 107 / 76
SDAX / MC / TO
Adler / 68 / 101
(several other companies with MC ahead of Aixtron, but turnover below rank #95)
Nordex / 90 / 83
But even if Nordex and Dialog Semi (changed home market from UK to Germany and thus should be eligible again for MDAX membership) were to re-enter the MDAX, Aixtron should be somewhat safe given Osram/Aareal/Metro.
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Ricky Tu, DIGITIMES Research, Taipeh Montag, 11. Januar 2021 0 Dropdown umschalten
Samsung Electronics wird laut Digitimes Research voraussichtlich einen zweigleisigen Ansatz verfolgen, um den Verkauf seiner QLED- und microLED-Fernseher im Jahr 2021 zu fördern, als Reaktion auf die Bemühungen seines Kollegen LG Electronics, seine rollbaren OLED-Fernseher zu fördern.
Die QLED-Fernseher von Samsung integrieren Quantenpunkte (QD) und OLED-Technologien. Um jedoch die Leistung wie Stromverbrauch und Helligkeit zu verbessern und das Problem des Einbrennens des Bildschirms zu lösen, plant das Unternehmen, 2021 die QNED-Technologie (QD + Nano LED) zu entwickeln.
Samsung plant, seine 110-Zoll-Mikro-TVs im ersten Quartal 2021 weltweit auf den Markt zu bringen. Wenn die verwandte Technologie weiter vorangetrieben wird, wird es möglicherweise eine rollbare Micro-LED-Technologie geben.
Während LG auch über die Fähigkeit verfügt, microLED-Fernseher herzustellen, wird das Unternehmen je nach Markttrend entscheiden, ob solche Produkte auf den Markt gebracht werden sollen.
Samsung und LG würden die Herstellung ihrer QLED- bzw. rollbaren OLED-Fernseher zur besseren Kostenkontrolle an Drittunternehmen vergeben, wobei erstere allein die Outsourcing-Quote bis 2021 auf 20% erhöhen dürften, schätzt Digitimes Research .
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a quick bloomberg article on expectations for TSMCs Q4 results this Thursday, TSMC is obviously one of the biggest chip manufacturers globally and thus sets pace for a) innovation and b) capex throughout the sector.
According to the analysts their business is really on fire (strongest profit in a decade) which should bode well for further capex spending and thus capital equipment suppliers like Aixtron or PVA Tepla, both of which cater to the 5G and power chip end-market.
Regards!
Fel
TSMC announced that it plans to increase its capex from $17.2b in 2020 to $25-28b in 2021, with the mid-point representing an increase of +54% y/y. The 2021 capex budget is significantly higher than the assumption (~$20b) in our recently-published wafer fab equipment forecast. TSMC suggested that the increase is driven by its anticipation of revenue growth in the next few years (TSMC expects revenue CAGR of 10-15% between 2020 and 2025), but stayed away from commenting on demand from specific customers or products. It's possible that TSMC's capex increase is partially offset by a decline in capex by Intel depending on its outsourcing strategy.
Aber nun sind wir kontinuierlich auf einem guten Weg dorthin.
Nächster Widerstand liegt um die 17 € herum, danach ist der Weg nach oben ziemlich frei.
Der Jahresbericht 2020 kommt übrigens am 25.02.2021.
Liebe Grüße und allen viel Glück
WAlex
LITE is Aixtron customer.
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Die 15 wird nach meiner Meinung jetzt halten und sich als Anlaufbahn Richtung 17 erweisen.
Aufi geht´s !!
LG
Walex :-)
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We will see.
:-)
Umsatz Kurs
2008: 274 Mio 10 - 5 EUR
2009: 303 Mio 5 - 22 EUR
2010: 784 Mio 22 - 30 EUR
2011: 611 Mio 30 - 10 EUR
2012: 227 Mio 10 - 10 EUR
Mir scheint es aber unwahrscheinlich, dass der Umsart 2022 um 250 % YoY steigt...hm, wobei wenn gewisse Konstallationen zusammentreffen wie SiC + miniLED + OLED ....
Jahr 2021 könnte Aixtron's Jahr werden
sorry again for the long absence.
Corona lock-downs and exit package negotiations don't make things easy on emotional side.
On the hand the stock market has been very, very rewarding in 2020.
In Dec. 2019, I was fortunate enough to invest in BNTX and CYDY. The first one tripling in 2020 and the latter even 7-folding in 2020. There have been days when I could not even read all the posts on the Bords I was following.
Back to Aixtron: I have been watching what is happening on a daily basis and I named Aixtron one of my 5 favorites for 2021 together with Dialog Semiconductors and Tepla. First Graphene and S&T are the 2 other shares I believe will be able to perform nicely in 2021
On a private and personal level I now also manage 5 investment portfolios for family and friends and Aixtron is represented over proportionally in all 5 of them.
For 2021 I believe there is huge opportunities in shares of Semiconductors such as the once mentioned above, but also:
- Süss Microtec
- Cree
- II-VI Inc.
- OLED (Universal Display Corp.)
all 4 have had a nice 2020/21 performance already.
As I have stated a number of times and to a few in private messages, I am and have been invested in Aixtron throughout the years. My last purchase was several Kilo shares @ € 3,83 in 2017.
Lately I underpin my long position share investments with Knock-out call opinions. DD0A3M has tripled since I bought in April and DFK6SA with 50% since December 7.
As you can see I am still very convinced that the words from Felix Grawert – “the best is yet to come” will hold true.
I wish us all a prosperous 2021 with the pandemic ending and a presence AGM in 2022.
BR
baggo-mh
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Meinst du, dass dieses Jahr die HV wie es früher gab noch nicht durchgeführt wird? Ich meine bis Mai ist noch genug Zeit um vielleicht hier virusfrei zu werden…
Und noch eine Frage habe ich zu Knock-outs, machst du irgendwelche Absicherung z.B. SL und ziehst es ab und zu nach oben… oder setzt irgendeine prozentuale Grenze oder Aktienkurs?
Schöne Grüße
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Die weltweite Nachfrage nach Halbleitern aus Silizium wächst rasanter als das Angebot. Der Mangel gefährdet Unternehmen und Arbeitsplätze. Volkswagen ist bereits gezwungen, seine Autoproduktion zu drosseln.