Kentor Gold - Bewegt sich endlich was ?
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| Eröffnet am: | 03.02.11 15:54 | von: mento | Anzahl Beiträge: | 29 |
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Utah macht Gold zum offiziellen Zahlungsmittel
Angesichts der ausufernden Staatsschulden misstrauen konservative US-Amerikaner ihrer Währung: Sie fürchten Inflation. In mehreren Bundesstaaten nutzen sie ihre Macht, um gegen die verhasste Zentralregierung in Washington und die Notenbank Fed vorzugehen.
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http://www.ftd.de/finanzen/maerkte/...en-zahlungsmittel/60030278.html
KGL - KENTOR GOLD LIMITED
RBS Australia rates KGL as Buy (1) - Target $0.22 (was $0.21). The company has had debt finance for the Andash gold-copper project approved, the broker noting the project should produce 70koz of gold and 16mlbs of copper annually with scope for mine life to be extended.
On the news the broker has slightly lifted its price target for the stock. Buy rating retained.
Target price is $0.22 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.075 If KGL meets the RBS Australia target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December. RBS Australia forecasts a full year FY10 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.01 cents .
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1450.00.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
Obviously, Macquarie Bank thinks so, having last month lent Kentor $US50m. And the new government in Bishkek seems to be holding together, although cosying up to Moscow for support.
But the company, with access to $71m in the bank, has the ability to shell out $12.8m in cash to take over an unlisted public company and pay off its debt.
Jinka Minerals has the appealing factor of owning three projects, all of them reassuringly in Australia - the Burnakura gold project 50km south of Meekatharra, the nearby Gabanintha copper-gold deposit and the Jervois base metals project near Alice Springs.
Jinka has 1400 shareholders. You would have thought that such a company would have floated, but the main barrier to that has been the $4.9m Jinka owes MD Michael Ruane, who parted with the readies needed to buy Burnakura.
The debt is perfectly justifiable - directors from time to time lend their companies money - but it is hard to sell an IPO when a chunk of the proceeds will be used to pay debt, no matter that it may have been money well spent.
Meanwhile, Kentor has begun talking to the locals in Kyrgyzstan. Most of the people are on board, the main opposition coming from the wealthiest families in the area.
They are opposed to the mine because they fear it will deprive them of cheap farm labour.
The workers tending crops and herds get paid between $60 and $80 a month, while Kentor is planning to offer about $450 a month.
Kentor is trying to get the top landowners onside by offering contracts for them to supply the mining village with meat and build fences and pipelines.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/...ry-e6frg9ex-1226032927816
Hochreiter believed that even though the mantra of a US recovery this year had been sung by a number of economists, such a recovery would probably not be realised until about 2014/15.
He said that the US still had too much debt, as much of the rest of the developed world, which could, contrary to popular expectations, even lead to a double-dip recession.
Gold rose to record highs during the 1929 to early 1940s Great Depression and immediately subtracted after the depression ended. “Even though we have now technically ‘exited’ the recession, we have still not seen gold prices going lower, which could indicate a double-dip recession,” said Hochreiter.
Gold was trading at $1 462,33/oz on Thursday and Hochreiter said that the yellow metal could go as high as $1 800/oz this year, but expected that it would probably trade at around current levels of $1 400/oz to $1 500/oz for the remainder of 2011.
The latest gold survey by metals consultancy GFMS forecast an average price of $1 455/oz for this year, with a low of $1 319/oz and a high of $1 620/oz.
Last month gold rose by 1,5% and the combination of escalating geopolitical uncertainty and sovereign risk concerns boosted bullion prices further in April.
In addition, robust demand for gold from the ‘new world’s’ strongest growing economies India and China, is currently also buttressing high prices. “There are more dollar-millionaires in India than there are in the US, and the country has a population of almost a billion people, which bodes well for future prices,” said Hochreiter.
A group of ten analysts surveyed by financial advisory company Allan Hochreiter predicted an average gold price of $1 379/oz for 2011, declining to $1 071/oz by 2014.
However, Hochreiter expected that prices would only start coming down between 2015 and 2020, but would still be way above historical levels.
By 2020, world gold demand was expected to be 6 800 t, while gold production would be around 6 000 t. Last year, output rose to a record 2 652 t.
Targeting early gold production at Burnakura &
Gabanintha, W.A.
Drilling to establish copper-lead-zinc-silver
Resource at Jervois, N.T.
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=KGL&E=ASX&N=354817
MFG
Chali
Optionen
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Angehängte Grafik:
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What happens next for gold – and why aren’t gold stocks flying?
You’ve heard me say many things about gold, and sometimes it’s best to let someone else do the talking. This is from Doug Casey:
‘...it's plain as day that gold is going to go higher. There's simply no other place for people to try to safeguard their wealth as the dollar, euro, and other currencies plummet toward their intrinsic values. What else could people buy as they get more and more afraid of paper currencies losing acceptance?
‘What are corporations going to do with the billions of dollars in their treasuries when their management gets frightened? Where else can they go when they need to get rid of dollars, euro, yen, and Yuan? Central banks, too – what will they do when they need to dump dollars in favour of something that will hold value?
‘This is why I see a bubble in gold still ahead. It has nothing to do with the supply and demand for gold in the jewellery trade, or whatever – it's going to be a result of there being no viable alternatives when the paper-money con game is over. Gold is the ultimate cash, and that's where people will go when there's a global, total, panic to cash.’
When someone asks me why I think gold will go up, so many reasons bubble up I never know where to start. So today I’ll mention the two reasons why it could fall.
The main risk out there now, is that the CME could raise margins again. Last week it hiked them 22%, which in fact had only a temporary effect. This seems like a blatant bit of market rigging. CME’s take on it is that it is done according to volatility levels. In fairness, a whole bunch of securities had their margins raised at the same time.
It’s possible to have a fair idea on how much further they could hike, according to the volatility seen. ETF securities reckon only another 16% rise is in store; which is not that bad. That was before the rally we are seeing at the moment though, so this number might be too low now.
If you overlook the million things that could cause gold to enter a new phase in its chart, the other thing that could see a sell off is that gold is so far above its 120-, 90- and 50-day moving averages now. Technically it has kept pretty close to these levels for most of the last 10 years. A quick pullback is not impossible. So if you do buy gold now, spread it out over weeks and months.
...
Dazu ein Beitrag aus dem HC
Hi Guys,
Still at the Gold Symposium, but I have fired up my laptop to provide you with an update.
My notes are summarised under each individual project:
Andash
- The government has assumed their 20% share of the project.
- Once the gov had their 20% they asked KGL why the project was taking so long. KGL explained the situation and the gov now wants it to progress ASAP.
- If we get approval it should be prior to x-mas with construction to start in the new year. (seem all but certain IMO).
- t $2.75/pound copper the cash costs at $29/oz of Gold. At current prices (for copper) the cash costs are likely to be negative. (i.e. all the gold is "free").
- The local town (which has a pop of 4,000 people and is 4km from the Andash Project) now want it to go ahead. The sentioment has changed.
- Only 5 wealthy land owners ever opposed the project. Their opposite appears futile now that the gov is on side.
- All engineering planning has been completed, only need to construct
Atkash
- KGL did not want to exercise their option on Atkash as it would have cost them $8 million without nothing whether Andash was going ahead. Without Andash, Atkash is uneconomical.
- Once approval is gained on Andash, they will re-examine Atkash and are confident of getting it.
- A Russian co recently offered the land owners $14 odd m for it, but reneged on the deal. KGL is now the only "buyer" IMO.
Jinka Minerals General
- Jinka was never purchased to take the focus off Andash. KGL's strategy has always been to acquire -> develop -> operate.
- Jinka minerals was about to go to an IPO but KGL was there at the right time and jumped in before hand.
Burnakura
- Feaso is delayed cause they are looking at the underground operations which will be more profitable.
- Still scheduled to start producing in June 2012.
- An RC campaign of 20,000 m will start shortly to infill the current resource.
- Start one will be 250k tpa.
- Stage two will be heap leach to treat the oxide ore.
Gabanthia
-Strategy remains to truck high grade ore to Burnakura
- Prevoius co stopped mining as soon as they hit any copper.
Jervois
- Not much was said expect the grades continue to get higher the deeper the drilling goes.
Geothermal project
*For some of you who remembered my post a few weeks back are the quarterly I was interested in finding out about this more.
- After "ditching" geothermal projects in Central Asia the company undertook a review of other opportunities throughout the South Pacific.
- They could recieve confirmation of the licence any day now. All the company had to do to secure the licence was to such a land holders claim which they have done.
- Once the project is granted one hole needs to be drilled to take the project from inferred to indicated resource status. It is then good to go (so to speak).
- Kentor will then spin the company out into a new co. they are not sure if KGL will retain shares in the company themselves or provide the shares to current holders.
- Strategy will this is to max shareholder returns (all extra cream IMO).
General comments on Gold
- David Evans stated the case for gold to:
2011 = $1,750
2015 = $3,800
2020 = $10,000 (however this will only be worth $4,600 in todays money due to massive inflation)
- David Evans said "the combined value of all the worlds gold miners is less than a global corporate such as Exon"
- Govs are conning public with global warming and expect them to run the same campaign on the devaluing of currencies.
- Eric Sportt
- Gold supply has hardly increased over the last 10 yrs
- Currently the world only adds 1.4% to the above ground supply of gold each year.
- On six simple measures there has been an increase in demand for of gold by 2,000 t pa from 2000 to 2010. This increase in demand is not being met by an increase in gold supply (as per stat above) therefore some central banks MUST be leasing/selling it (without informing the public).
- China/East Asia cannot get enough of the stuff.
- Gold exports to China (via Hong Kong) were 57 tonnes in Sep 2011 allow. A 6 fold increase on last year.
- the sale of physical gold and silver to people/public and investors is increasing at an enormous rate. in 2000 the US mint sold 8,405,000 oz of silver. In 2010 they sold 34,662,500 oz of silver.
- When Sprott launched their silver trust they made a bulk purchase of silver and it took three months for it to be delivered. Some of the dlivered bars where printed after their date of purchase (i.e. they had to produce more silver to meet previous demand).
- With $1bn you could buy all the silver listed on the commex.
- Eric spott values James Sincalirs opinion and he has stated gold to hit $12,000/oz. He correctly predicted that it would hit $1,650.
- Gold Assets only represent 1.5% of the worlds total assets. As funds/asset managers/clients demand exposure to gold this demand cannot be met by an increase in supply but must come from existing above ground stock.
- Louis Boulanger
- Since 1961 the US national debt has never gone fown.
- If we had sound money today gold would be at 10,000 an oz.
Thats just a couple of notes I have heaps more information to share. It has been a great event
Wednesday, 28 December 2011
WITH $A43 million in the bank, four projects in the pipeline and a preference for acquisitions over greenfields exploration, Kentor Gold is doing its best to stand out from the junior pack. By Imelda Cotton - RESOURCESTOCKS*
For Queensland-based Kentor Gold, the cloudy economic period of 2008-09 had a unique silver lining which helped kickstart its beginnings and set it apart from its junior league competitors.
Listed on the Australian Securities Exchange in 2005 with the aim of making new discoveries on its leases in the Kyrgyz Republic in central Asia, Kentor had commenced a corporate rethink on its approach to mining success just prior to the global financial crisis and after its initial exploration efforts failed to uncover anything material.
In 2007, the company abandoned its original greenfields exploration strategy in favour of project acquisition and development and used market conditions created by the crisis to amass its maiden portfolio.
Today, Kentor has four core projects – three in Australia and one in the Kyrgyz Republic – at various stages of development scheduled to be rolled out between 2012 and 2014, putting it in a category not shared by many other juniors.
“It is quite unusual for a company of our size to have four strong projects on the go at the same time,” said managing director Simon Milroy, who was appointed in 2007 to spearhead the new strategy.
“Our Australian projects are located on granted mining licences where there has been historical production, so the normal permitting and native title issues that local exploration companies face do not exist, meaning we can move into production on all of them quite quickly.
“The GFC was a fantastic opportunity for us to acquire these good strong assets at discount prices.
“Struggling companies worldwide were forced to sell off their assets at prices well below replacement cost and we were financially well-positioned to take advantage of that.”
One of Kentor’s first acquisitions – and one of its larger, potentially more profitable projects – was the advanced, high-grade Andash copper-gold asset in the northwest of the Kyrgyz Republic, within the Tien Shan major gold belt which stretches across central Asia.
In December 2009, the junior outlayed just $US15 million to purchase an 80% stake in the existing mine, including a fleet of mining and construction equipment, when the project’s previous owner ran into financial trouble.
The remaining 20% is held by the pro-mining Krygyz government.
Milroy said Andash would be one of the world’s lowest-cost gold mines, located in a highly prospective yet inherently challenging environment.
The company is targeting a 2013 start-up with average annual production of 70,000 ounces of gold and 7400 tonnes of copper over an initial six-year mine life.
“The Tien Shan belt is a very rich province which has been subject to a huge degree of historical exploration,” Milroy said.
“All the easy-to-find orebodies were identified very early on but few were exploited due to the region’s past political instabilities.
“That has left the market with a host of known orebodies waiting to be brought into production.
“It can be a tough place to operate in for a junior but we are fortunate to have an executive director who continues to reside there after 14 years, speaks the local language and has built a local team to help advance Andash and other regional opportunities.
“There have been some delays with our work to date due to social issues but we expect to reach an agreement with the local community by year end, enabling us to start our 12-month construction program in early 2012.
“The Kyrgyz government has a very pro-mining stance and we are confident that will contribute greatly to resolving the issues we face.”
While Kentor awaits the outcome in the Kyrgyz Republic, it is forging ahead with its Australian projects, the Burnukura and neighbouring Gabanintha gold projects in Western Australia and the Jervois base metals project in the Northern Territory – acquired as part of an offmarket takeover of gold and base metals company Jinka Minerals in May.
“Jervois is essentially an overlooked copper project and was what initially attracted us to Jinka,” Milroy said.
“The mine has an initial inferred JORC resource estimate of 8.8 million tonnes at 1.3 per cent copper for 113,000 tonnes contained copper plus silver and gold credits and is a very good grade for an open pit copper project in this part of the world.”
The $12.8 million acquisition was funded from cash in the bank raised in December 2010 and according to Milroy, demonstrates the “power of cash” in an uncertain economy.
“The vendors were after a quick sale and the fact that we could offer a fast, clean cash deal was a big attraction,” he said.
“We now have a cash balance of $43 million, which should be sufficient to bring Burnukura and Andash into production.
“Whatever happens in the market, we have substantial cash reservesto go ahead with our plans and that is a pretty unique position for a junior to be in.”
Three weeks after acquiring Jinka, Kentor announced an initial inferred gold resource at Burnukura of 10.6Mt at 1.5 grams per tonne gold for a total of 516,000oz at a 0.5gpt cut-off, including a high-grade component of 3.2Mt at 2.9gpt for 298,000oz at a 1.5gpt cut-off.
The company is now working on restarting the Meekatharra-based operation, originally placed on care and maintenance in 2009, from an open pit and associated processing plant in time for a mid-2012 startup.
Key to the restart will be the commissioning of a 1Mtpa heap leach circuit bought in June for $1.3 million to treat the lower-grade ore, while the highest-grade material will be fed through the existing carbon-in-pulp circuit, which is being expanded and converted to a carbon-in-leach circuit.
“Burnukura was most recently operated as an underground mine extracting the hard ore but high cash costs eventually forced its closure,” Milroy said.
“We are planning to mine the softer oxide ore by open pit mainly because it is simple and cheap to do in a $US1600 per ounce gold environment, there is a generous resource available and this approach will give us a much higher throughput rate.
“We are currently putting the finishing touches to the financial model and feasibility study and expect to make an announcement regarding final production, capital and operating costs by year end.”
While Burnukura will transform Kentor from developer to producer, it is the much-larger Andash, with its potential for $100m free cashflow per year, and the lesser-explored Jervois that Milroy said would put Kentor on the map.
“Jervois is at a much earlier stage than our other projects but we feel it has the potential to be the largest and most profitable in the long run,” he said.
“The historical drilling and work we have done so far has focused on four main orebodies but we know there are outcropping copper occurrences over a 12 kilometre strike length and a host of additional prospective areas that have not yet been investigated at depth.
“It is unlikely we will find anything as strong as Andash from a cashflow perspective but there is no doubt that Jervois has the potential to be larger from a resource perspective than any of our other assets.
“We believe we are in the early stages of understanding a large mineralised system with the clear potential to be a major base and precious metals mine.
“That said, Andash remains our main focus – it is fully funded and ready to go.
“Our number one priority is to resolve the community issues there and forge ahead with development for a 2013 start-up.”
http://www.miningnews.net/storyview.asp?storyid=2493726
I prefer to look at the valuation rather than pick a short term target.
Andash will be worth around 40c on Andash zone 1 only for a cashflow multiple of 5 at current prices for copper and gold and using costs from the F.S.
Add zones 2 and 3 would boost it to around 50c and Atkash at least 60c.
Those are my estimates but the FS gives a good indication of how much the NPV rises when more ore is added.
We don't have Atkash yet but as most of us are aware, it is not a stand alone project so we should get it back when we want it.
Using $2500 for gold (but still $3.40 for copper), I get a 50% jump in valuation for a range of 60c zone 1 only to 90c with Atkash.
Burnakura valuation is difficult till we get the FS results, but on my assumptions, its worth around 13-16c at 1600-1800 gold at the start up rate plus heap leach. That’s better than the current share price and it is just our smallest project.
My assumptions are cash costs at $900 at the start up rate for the CIL, $800 on the heap leach, and $800 on the CIL after capacity is doubled.
The heap leach cash costs could be way too high considering the mining costs are minimal as the material is pre-strip for the CIL.
We also do not yet know if agglomeration is needed.
If not, the costs should be cut drastically.
We have enough 2.9g/t ore to provide 18 years of production at 250,000tpa.
At the start up rate, I assume 250,000 tpa CIL. Average grade of 3.7g/t in the initial years assuming a feed of 50% u/g ore, 50% open pit ore (open pit ore averaging 2.9g/t) gives me 27,363 ounces at 92% recovery (same as previous operation achieved). We own a heap leach circuit which can operate at better than 750,000 tpa and the “waste” from the CIL will be ore averaging 0.91g/t. Assuming 70% recovery, produces another 15,288 ounces.
I combined the two operations cash profits then deducted exploration expenses of 6mill/yr, admin of 5mill/yr, and sustaining capex at 1.3 mill/yr. Also royalties and the usual taxes and depreciation.
Again my numbers will be conservative as the reality is corporate taxes will likely be zero for the first couple of years thanks to carried forward expenses.
The result is a cashflow multiple of 10 (or just 6.9 at $1800 gold) at a 12c share price. If CIL is doubled I get a multiple of 5.7 or 4.3 at $1800 gold.
Too cheap and even cheaper if you allow for upside at Gab.
The heap leach makes a big contribution to my valuation.
The upcoming FS probably will not include the heap leach so don't expect it to show the same valuation as I have come up with. It should be significantly lower, but the heap leach is highly likely to be added so should not be ignored.
It will be worth more like 40-55c at $2500 gold because of the greater leverage to gold price, but also because the CIL plant will surely be doubled in capacity as currently envisaged by management (still allowing for 9 years from only the high grade part of the resources at Burn and Gab. Doubling of capacity will only cost around 10mill so will be easily justified at $1900 gold let alone $2500 gold.
Before anyone calls me mad or accuses me of pumping the stock, please run the numbers first and then show your results. I will be happy to debate results.
I think the $2500 gold target (sustainable) is a certainty by around 1-2 years time.
A Jervois valuation is even more difficult this early, but I would expect something in the range of 30-50c at spot copper and silver.
It will be leveraged to the copper and silver prices and they are very volatile and may continue that way for years.
With $2500 gold, Andash alone can get us to near $1 without any consolidation.
With Burnakura, we should easily go well beyond $1, and then we have Jervois for further growth.
Without $2500 gold, I see us getting to $1 still, but we will need Jervois so it will be an extra couple of years to get there.
www.kentorgold.com.au/assets/files/...0Murchison%20Gold%20Project.pdf
Facts:
- Goldmine ist produktiver als gedacht
- Kosten sind geringer als errechnet
- Diamanten gefunden
Und ab geht der Chart !
habe da zu wenig recherchiert! Dann sind die Chancen, dass der Kurs abkackt ja auch nicht so hoch und ein Einstieg wäre nicht so risikoreich! Die Ergebnisse der Bodenproben bleiben ja :)
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