Jinko Solar vor einer Neubewertung ?
Der Wert macht jetzt weiterhin ganz stoisch mit den Jinko-typischen Chartmustern weiter. Das ist mit dem oberflächlichen Blick nicht zu erkennen, deswegen hier noch mal ein Update des alten, hier geposteten Chartbildes.
Ich habe die Tools nicht angefasst, damit man sehen kann, wie der Kurs wieder auf jene Linie zustreben will, die er sich als letzte Abprallkante ausgesucht hat.
Wer sich dran erinnern kann, die betreffende Linie ist nicht nachträglich eingemalt worden sondern der Wert hat am 10. Mai eine 100%ige Punktlandung auf der Prognose gemacht.
Dieses Muster läuft nun zum zigsten Mal in modellierten Form ab; die mathematisch ermittelte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist aber von erschreckender Zuverlässigkeit,
wenn er diesmal (kann 1 - 3 Schritte brauchen) dieselbe Linie Linie nimmt, liegt die mittlerweile schon bei über 80%.
Das ist das, was diese Aktie für long so unattraktiv macht. Und ist natürlich das, was nicht ich sondern ein Börsenexperte (Ihr wisst schon wer - dessen Name nicht gesagt werden darf) erwähnen sollte.
Für Trades ist das eine ordentliche Geschichte, aber für long muss man diese Eigenheiten kennen, sonst führt das irgendwann zum Haarverlust.
Also - nicht die Nerven verlieren, wenn die Flut kommt, hebt sie erst einmal alle Boote und dazu gehört auch dieser Wert.
Angehängte Grafik:
jinko_18.png (verkleinert auf 19%)
jinko_18.png (verkleinert auf 19%)
Ich sag ja, selbst ein KGV von 1 könnte ich mir vorstellen und trotzdem kauft den Müll keiner hoch.
Konkret würde es heißen: wir laufen noch (von unten gesehen) die 2 oder dritte Linie an, bevor es wieder einen Rebound gibt?!
https://www.ariva.de/forum/...ubewertung-511558?page=801#jumppos20032
Da können die Amis kein Debakel veranstalten. Das ist nicht der einzige Grund!!!
Alle China Aktien im Sinkflug. Tencent, Alibaba, Daqo um nur einige zu nennen.
"Wer unserem Trading Tip von August 21 gefolgt ist, ist jetzt mit über 150% im Plus.
Das schafft nur der Aktionär.
man kann versuchen diese Volatilität zu verstehen und daraus zu profitieren.
Muss mich nicht festlegen, habe alles rechtzeitig mit Gewinn verkauft und warte an der Seitenlinie, bin aber der Meinung, dass es weiter abwärts geht
Die Zusammenfassung ist von vor 4 Stunden (21.8.2021, ca. 4:00 Uhr, user Chen). Ich poste sie ohne jede Veränderung, da ich keinen link dazu habe.
Relevantfür Jinko ist nach meiner Meinung folgende Einschätzung:
"
Impact of US black list:
We cannot export or import from US, but we do not need to. Second, US requires module exporter to show material proving they are not using Hoshine silicon. 30~40% of our product using Hoshine and 60~70% are using silicon from other company. Wafer makers also import from OCI, Wacker, so I think this ban has essentially no impact to us. Longer term, we think this policy is not practical, only making noises for the downstream companies. If US does not import modules from China or Chinese company, it will take 3~4 years for them to build their own. And also they do not have the technology to make solar panels of same efficiency as us. China now has developed good solar technology. They are harming themselves.
"
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DQ China earning call
Source: xueqiu/wechat public channel Shenzhen wealth club
Capacity: 4B estimated to start production on Oct., reaching full capacity before end of next March. Next year real output would be around 12~13 MT. 4B alone brings about 4~5 MT. Planning another 20MT line in phase. Estimated full capacity 27 MT by 2024.
Cost: total 41.47 RMB/KG = 35.6 cash + 5.87 depreciation. Lower than last year due to scale.
Price: 200~205 RMB/KG July-August.
We have spend 0.12 B RMB on research. Will pay down all debt at end of September. Current market share stands at 18%. Hope to maintain that.
We expect cost will continue to be lowered as 4B online due to scale. Current energy cost is 62.89 KWH/KG, expect lower to 55-58 KWH/KG next year.
Impact of US black list:
We cannot export or import from US, but we do not need to. Second, US requires module exporter to show material proving they are not using Hoshine silicon. 30~40% of our product using Hoshine and 60~70% are using silicon from other company. Wafer makers also import from OCI, Wacker, so I think this ban has essentially no impact to us. Longer term, we think this policy is not practical, only making noises for the downstream companies. If US does not import modules from China or Chinese company, it will take 3~4 years for them to build their own. And also they do not have the technology to make solar panels of same efficiency as us. China now has developed good solar technology. They are harming themselves.
Looking to find another place for new 10 MT production line. Have to consider several factors: distance to customers, electricity cost, land usage. Energy usage quota is a big one in China now. Have to apply to get approval.
New competitors:
In the past 4 years of the turn from poly to mono silicon wafer, mono continuous crystallization and diamond line cutting was monopolized by a certain company (Chen: Longji). We have very little profit. And the silicon cost of mono is half of poly wafer. Therefore there is no demand increase for 4 years. Therefore, all foreign competitors have been outcompeted by us. And domestically there is a lot of M&A. Now TongWei, TEBA, us, New Hope, Xiexin are top players. We have 99% mono grade poly, which is a step up from other players can produce only 95% mono grade. As the industry turn from P-sili to N-sili, poor quality poly will disqualify. Some players will be shut out, and a challenge to new players. It is not simply buy some equipment and start producing, and there is patents. Each company has our own production tricks. We are not afraid of future competition. We have the largest production base in the world, it helps to have the scale.
We can make 30~40% of our output to N-sili. Now it is not a big market, but we are ready while others are still trying. In the future we expect N-sili will be more dominant and we can convert to 80% output to N-sili. It will increase a little cost (1.5~2 RMB/KG) but also commands higher prices (2~3 RMB/KG).
Semiconductor silicon
We have not yet started semi-sili production. We have a very different work path compared to China existing semi grade poly producers. They try to make their way up from the lowest quality poly. We will do the purest semi grade first. We do not make capacity estimation now but we expect to first replace foreign semi grade and then expand. The market is huge (the world knows it, yes). Semi grade can sell at 4~5 times of solar grade poly, the market is very favorable. (Chen: China would very much like to replace its poly input stock from foreign countries as long as it qualifies).
Future of DQ US:
It is possible to do a privatization, it is also possible to continuous pay dividend and buyback (Chen: I think they will pay DQ US dividend and DQ US will do buyback, currently this makes the best financial sense). We want to reward US stakeholders. We will be responsible for all our shareholders. We hope to maximize their interests.
Will you appeal to Dept of Commerce of US?
We are researching, in proper time we want to get out from the black list.
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21.8.2021, ca. 4:00 Uhr, user Chen
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