Trading Bougainville Copper (ADRs) 867948

hat in diesem Forum nichts verloren.  

Stimmt mich langsam nachdenklich !!!

 

Nach wie vor: ohne Mine keine Einnahmen!!  Das ist ein ganz klares Statement von Momis, und auch klar ohne die Landowner wird die Mine nie eröffnet werden, also drehen wir uns immer im Kreis.
Aber die Aussicht hat sich sicher nicht verschlechter, gut; auch nicht verbessert.  

Folglich abwarten, wer noch warten kann und möchte!
Ich kaufe immer weiter zu.
Alleine wegen des Kapitals von BCL ist der Kurs nach unten abgesichert.
Aus meiner Sicht ein langlaufender Optionsschein ohne Totalverlustrisiko.  

In diesem Bericht werden doch einige Punkte betr. Reopening in Frage gestellt !

 

Für alles gibt es Vor- und Nachteile.
Was das reopening richtig gemacht wird, kann es nur Vorteile geben.  

http://www.solomonstarnews.com/sports/regional/...-to-gain-experience

Papua New Guinea Government intends to reopen Bougainville’s defunct Aropa Airport in three months’ time.

And Prime Minister Peter O’Neill has given an undertaking that he will fly to Bougainville again after three months to open the airport once all maintenance and buildings, including the necessities, are completed.

Aropa Airport was once PNG’s international gateway to Bougainville from Solomon Islands, Fiji and Australia during the Bougainville copper mine days.

The airport was closed soon after all services came to a halt in 1989, during the Bougainville Crisis, and was decommissioned by the then Civil Aviation Authority (now National Airports Corporation) immediately after the closure.

O’Neill has instructed State Owned Enterprises Minister Ben Micah to take the lead, and in conjunction with the national and Autonomous Bougainville Government leaders, to have all government agencies, specifically the National Airports Corporation and others, involved in the re-opening of the once international gateway for Bougainville.

The Government will most probably do the re-opening after April, however there is no set month except the time frame of three months to work on the airport has been set.

O’Neill announced this at the Port Moresby Nature Park during the weekend to officially thank the New Ireland, the media industry and all stakeholders for a very successful Bougainville trip.

“I want to re-open Aropa Airport in three months time,” he said.

“I want to see NAC move in to start working on the airport. I want to see buildings go up, the runway is already there and I want to see the project complete because I will return to Bougainville after three months to officially open Aropa Airport after 22 years of it being closed,” O’Neill said.

The prime minister and Micah could not detail how much would be spent on the maintenance and re-opening and construction of the aerodrome but it is believed the national Government recently released K5 million (US$1.5 million) to the ABG leaders to maintain the airport.

Micah is expected to travel to Bougainville in two weeks’ time to officially announce the establishment of Post PNG, in Arawa, and to see the possibilities of re-opening establishments of state owned enterprises in Central Bougainville.  

..............the arrival of their inaugural service to Buka.

The touchdown just after 1PM today marked the first flight by Airlines PNG linking Kokopo and Buka.

"Today is a real milestone for Airlines PNG and we are pleased to be able to provide this 5 days a week service to the people of Bougainville." said Paul Abbot, Chief Commercial Officer Airlines PNG.

"The demand for the service has been overwhelming and we thank all those who have got in behind the airline and supported this expansion to our network.

From today the service links Buka with Kokopo, Kavieng and Lae which will provide much needed support for local businesses and for families keeping contact with their loved ones".

http://ramumine.wordpress.com/2014/02/07/...rs-begin-on-bougainville/
 

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/2014/02/07/17/...rom-bougainville
 

John Mauldin, Vorsitzender von Mauldin Economics, rät (siehe hier) allen Investoren die auf echte Werte setzen, genau auf die Sektoren zu setzen, die im Moment von der Herde der Investoren gemieden werden. Und das seien Rohstoffaktien.

Fast sämtliche Märkte wurden mit Liquidität überflutet. Deshalb sei es sehr schwer, in diesen Märkten, die im Moment von den meisten Investoren aufgesucht werden, noch echte Werte zu finden. FürRohstoffaktien aber ist Mauldin jetzt bullish. Ihre Zeit sei jetzt gekommen.

Doug Casey und Rich Rule gehören seit 40 Jahren zu den erfolgreichsten Rohstoffinvestoren der Welt. Beide haben ihre Investitionen in Rohstoffaktien in den letzten Monaten deutlich ausgeweitet. Rule bestätigt, dass das Big Money wieder einsteige und auf eine Bodenbildung bei den Rohstoffaktien setze. Casey hält sowohl Gold als auch Rohstoffaktien für sehr, sehr billig: "Die Zeit zu kaufen ist gekommen!"
Rule
Rick Rule, Gründer von Sprott Global Resource Investment

Rule ist der gleichen Meinung. Aber er präzisiert: Es könne sein, dass der Bereinigungsprozess bei den Explorern noch ein Jahr anhält.

Wie auch schon in früheren Bärenmärkten werden sehr viele Explorer auch noch in den nächsten Monaten pleite gehen. Aber für ausgesuchte Unternehmen mit vielversprechenden Projekten und guten ökonomischen Daten, die erfolgreich die Kapitalmärkte anzapfen können, um ihre Projekte zu entwickeln, setze die Trendwende schon jetzt ein. In diese Aktien müsse man jetzt einsteigen.

Rick Rule kennt sie Sorgen eines Investors. Vor vielen Jahren hatte er auf der Diggers + Dealers-Konferenz in Australien einen kleinen Uranium-Explorer kennengelernt. Damals tendierte Uran bei unter US$10 je Pfund. Uran gefiel ihm, weil er davon ausging, dass der Preis steigen müsste. Das Management-Team machte einen sehr guten Eindruck und das Projekt war sehr interessant. Also hatte er zusammen mit seinen Freunden eine Finanzierung bei $0,125 durchgeführt. Dann fiel der Kurs: $0,10, $0,08, bis $0,01. Ein Verlust von über 90%! Rule und Casey haben die Aktie immer wieder nachgekauft. Als dann der Uranmarkt bis auf über US$120 je Pfund ansprang, stieg die Aktie auf $0,10, $0,20, $1,00. Drei Jahre später notierte die Aktie bei $10. In der Spitze kostete die Aktie 2011 sogar mehr als $50. Welcher Explorer war das? Paladin Energy, einer der größten Uranproduzenten Australiens!

Eine gemütliche Anekdote? Nein, Casey glaubt, dass solche Entwicklungen jetzt auch bei Gold- und Silberaktien möglich sind. Eine historisch einmalige Chance!
Casey
Doug Casey, CEO von Casey Research

Casey betont, dass gerade die Aktien von Explorern und kleinen Produzenten extrem volatil seien. Auf ihren Kurshöchstständen seien die meisten Aktien extrem überbewertet gewesen. Jetzt sei genau das Gegenteil der Fall. Die Bewertungen seien zum Teil extrem niedrig. Er empfiehlt: "Achten Sie auf Ihre Psyche und machen Sie das Gegenteil von dem, zu was Ihnen Ihr Gefühl rät. Niemand fühlt sich im Moment wohl, wenn er Rohstoffaktien kauft. Sie denken: Vielleicht geht es noch weiter runter. Ich kann weiter warten. Ich habe noch viel Zeit. Minenaktien sind wirklich ein crappy Business. Nein: JETZT ist die Zeit für den Einstieg gekommen!"

Vor allem für Goldaktien ist Casey bullish. Die Notenbanken werden immer neue Spekulationsblasen produzieren. Er glaubt daran, dass die nächste Blase bei Gold entstehen wird.



 

 

Kleo
February 9, 2014 at 7:27 am
I don’t know where this writer got his info from as I was in the first car ahead the PM. The lead car with the Public Enterprises Minister stopped where he had prearranged with the Mekamui when he first drove up and Chris Uma and Ishmael hugged him and then PM’s car was stopped by the Minister and PM came out of the car and they shook hands and hugged, Mekamui now want Mekamui Defence force and security be converted into commercial entities now that Arawa is opening up to participate and contribute to improving the Mekamui economy. Panguna opening and referendum is up to the LOs and ABG and is not a matter for PNG Govt to decide. Overall the goodwill visit was an outstanding success.
Write facts please,

Reply
Roger
February 9, 2014 at 2:50 pm
Wow this article is full of totally flawed information.
The Prime Minister never went by road to Panguna. He flew to Buin as a Guest of President Momis, overnighted there and then flew into Panguna for the ceremony with the Mekamui President. And yes many of us left Arawa 2 hours early by road (flood devastated) to Buka so that we can be on the Air Niugini Charter flight back to Port Moresby. The Prime Minister and Ministers travelled by helicopter, a 10 minute ride. We all arrived in Buka to board the aircraft in time.
This guy sounds just like the “army officer” in the movie Mr Pip !
Great sites like this lower their credence allowing idiots like this guy to post.

Reply  

Miriori und Pipiro hat O Neill hoffentlich mit seiner Ansprache den Wind aus den Segeln genommen :-) Dass sind nämlich die kleinen Probleme im Hintergrund, welche den Prozess immer wieder verzögern!

http://asopa.typepad.com/asopa_people/2014/02/...e-thwarted.html#more

08 February 2014

O’Neill’s Panguna visit: how the opportunists were thwarted

LEONARD FONG ROKA

An entry in The Crocodile Prize
PNG Chamber of Mines & Petroleum
Award for Essays & Journalism

Peter O'Neill in BougainvilleIN 2012, Central Bougainville politician Jimmy Miringtoro and Papua New Guinea Prime Minister Peter O’Neill were chatting in O’Neill’s office in Parliament House, Port Moresby, when the PM unexpectedly suggested he was interested in visiting Bougainville.

It wasn’t until late January 2014 that the proposal took form and the pair landed at Buka airport in a chartered jet, touring Bougainville for three days in a convoy of cars with three helicopters buzzing around in the skies above.

Late last year, as he was preparing the way for O’Neill’s visit, Miringtoro told the Panguna people that the trip would be a ‘family visit’. It was the Autonomous Bougainville Government (ABG) administration that came up with the more far reaching idea of a ‘goodwill visit’.

Across central Bougainville, many people think some of Miringtoro’s actions in recent times have gone well outside what should have been the responsibility of the ABG. One of these was a Panguna landowners’ deal for an agricultural investment by Chinese firm, Beijing Aerospace Great Wall.

The ABG was shocked by the deal, signed at the Lynchar Hotel in Buka town late in 2013, and wondered what other surprises Jimmy Miringtoro might have in store.

But Waigani’s respect for the authority of Bougainville president Dr John Momis made it clear that even Miringtoro had to play along with the protocol of the ABG taking responsibility for the visit.

Before the ABG took over the PM’s tour, however, arrangements Miringtoro had made with the divided Meekamui factions had created a tussle in Panguna - money and recognition being the catalysts.

Today, the self-style Meekamui ‘government’ in central Bougainville is a divided band of individuals striving for status. In Panguna there is a Meekamui group led by Philip Miriori who, together with Moses Pipiro from Pangka village, claim a line of leadership from the late Francis Ona.

But Guava villagers condemn them and say Ona died without any official announcement that Miriori or Pipiro should be leader.

Meanwhile, down on the east coast is Chris Uma from Kerei outside Arawa, the man who runs the Morgan Junction checkpoint on the Loloho port – Panguna mine-access road. Uma’s right to rule, he claims, was also bestowed upon him by Ona.

Uma is not a Panguna man but has followers in the mine affected areas. Uma, whose group bear arms, is a power in the area. But, whereas Miriori and Pipiro have a hatred of the ABG, Uma follows and respects the Panguna Peace Building Strategy, which he says upholds the principles Bougainville went to war for.

Uma’s growing harmony with the ABG through the PPBS means Miriori and Pipiro are sidelined by the Panguna people. They saw Peter O’Neill’s visit to Bougainville as an event that somehow could be manipulated to restore their influence in the eyes of the people.

So, without the knowledge of the Meekamui and in a surprise move, they took steps to support the ABG’s Panguna District Administration invitation to O’Neill to visit Panguna with the financial support of Jimmy Miringtoro and the ABG.

Thus Panguna was designated for a visit by Peter O’Neill by a few people without the rest knowing. When they found out, this shocked Chris Uma and the people of Panguna.

Seeing the threat, Pipiro and Miriori began a media campaign saying that the PM was welcome at Panguna, but their about-face led them to being shamed by Uma and his followers.


And Uma took action. In the fortnight leading to O’Neill’s arrival, he was on the road seeking support from other men to stop the PM visiting Panguna, by words or guns, whichever they chose.

People were divided. So the Panguna organising committee came to Uma’s followers with K15,000 if he and his allies allowed the visit.

Uma refused the cash leading to more ABG ministers joining behind the scenes to negotiate a solution. Eventually nearly K40,000 was spent to allow the Peter O’Neill to visit Panguna.

The final meeting ended at 3am on 29 January only when O’Neill’s team personally got involved and promised to uphold the belkol or, in Nasioi language, domangtamiri - a process towards peace and compensation after conflict resulting in destruction and death.

Peter O'Neill, John Momis and Chris Uma (Mekamui News)So it was that Peter O’Neill visited Panguna and met with Chris Uma as he drove from Panguna to Arawa by vehicle.

So the rewards of the visit were not with Philip Miriori and Moses Pipiro.

Earlier the Panguna people had heard, wrongly, from Meekamui followers that the prime minister was visiting Panguna to recognise Meekamui as a legitimate tribal government. The Meekamui leaders also wanted O’Neill to have a private moment with them.

But O’Neill made Miriori and Pipiro laughing stocks in the midst of the Panguna people and Bougainville.

In his Panguna speech, O’Neill announced, as Miriori looked on shocked,“The ABG is the only legitimate government in Bougainville. Meekamui you have come under ABG and work as one Bougainville people to bring about development and progress in Bougainville.”

After the official program, Miriori approached O’Neill but was told the PM had no time for discussion.

O’Neill’s visit to Bougainville was important and influential. It empowered the ABG as the legitimate government standing for the rights of the people of Bougainville. It further exposed the little warlords in central Bougainville as trying to hold the Bougainville people to ransom.

 

History bares out USAID warning on Bougainville
by ramunickel
In a recent report published by USAID, and reviewed on PNG Mine Watch, the United States government warned that Rio Tinto’s Panguna mine is the most potent source of future conflict on Bougainville.

This short video from 1991, serves as a reminder of the environmental harm and violence Rio Tinto brought to Bougainville, a reality certain high flyers would sooner have us forget:

https://www.youtube.com/...?feature=player_embedded&v=eC5bISo1eNQ
 

bitte nicht mehr diesen negativen Schwachsinn von ramunickel posten.
Ich kann es nicht mehr hören.
Jeder Tag eine neue haltlose Story, als hätte er nichts besseres zu tun.
Vielen Dank  

Source: ABC Radio Australia News



A PNG lesson in going with the flow

by Liam Cochrane



The ABC's new correspondent in PNG got a taste of the vibrant colour and - at times - chaos of life on the road in the Land of the Unexpected. Liam Cochrane followed the PNG prime minister on an historic trip to Bougainville, an autonomous island to the east of Papua New Guinea that has been plagued by war and neglect. From baking heat to pouring rain, from being right in the thick of it to being completely left out, it was quite an initiation.



 LISTEN HERE !  





http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-08/...-going-with-the-flow/5247882





ELIZABETH JACKSON: The ABC's new correspondent in PNG (Papua New Guinea) got a taste of the vibrant colour and, at times, chaos of life on the road in the Land of the Unexpected.



Liam Cochrane followed the PNG prime minister on a historic trip to Bougainville, an autonomous island to the east of Papua New Guinea that has been plagued by war and neglect.



From baking heat to pouring rain, from being right in the thick of it to being completely left out, it was quite an initiation.



From PNG, here's Liam Cochrane.



LIAM COCHRANE: I've spent some hot days under the Cambodian sun, but standing around filming the reconciliation ceremony at Buka, in northern Bougainville, was just about as sweltering as I've ever experienced.



Sure it was hot, but the humidity was intense. A few steps away a Papua New Guinean cameraman was feeling it too, beads of sweat dripping down his face, his shirt plastered to his back. Meanwhile the local Bougainvillian reporters, with their deep black skin, didn't to seem to notice the heat at all.



Someone handed me a bottle of water and probably saved me from heat stroke, as the speeches and ceremonies went on for about four hours.



I was one of 10 reporters and cameramen from the PNG mainland who had flown over to Bougainville to witness an historic visit by prime minister Peter O'Neill.



He was the first sitting PM to tour the autonomous island since the end of the civil war in 1997, and this trip was part of a long overdue reconciliation effort.



The logistics of such a trip were daunting but the basic idea was that once on Bougainville, the prime minister and other VIPs would take helicopters from place to place and the media would scramble across the island in two four wheel drives.



In Buka, the two leaders - Peter O'Neill representing PNG and John Momis, the president of Bougainville - broke a bow and arrow over their knees to symbolize the end of hostilities. Special peacemaker chiefs known as maimais stripped down to red sarongs and made loud proclamations of reconciliation, overseeing exchanges of gifts like traditional shell money, real cash, pigs and vegetables.



Bamboo bands played - slapping thongs on the end of bamboo pipes - while women in grass skirts danced. It was all very colourful. And so was I by the end of the day, a not-so traditional or attractive shade of pink.



After dark, a boat took us across to the main part of Bougainville. We met up with our police escort and off we drove to the central town of Arawa.



The next day, an early start to get to the southern town of Buin. There, the cultural groups were even more elaborately decorated. Men in pointy hats painted like skeletons were quite spooky-looking. Another group of men played bamboo pan pipes while they followed warriors dancing ahead with long spears, their heads wrapped in light brown bark, with holes for eyes and mouth.



Peter O'Neill and John Momis arrived and were ushered onto a huge sedan chair, hoisted onto the shoulders of dozens of men and paraded through the main street of Buin to the stage.



The speeches and cultural events that followed were met with a steady rain, but hundreds of locals stayed to listen to Peter O'Neill apologise for the conflict in the past, and to hear his offers of millions of dollars for new roads and other development projects.



I took shelter in the car with my camera gear, which soon became a little sauna, surrounded by the spooky skeleton men in their spiky hats. It was surreal - sort of like that scene in Titanic, but without Kate Winslet and directed by David Lynch.



The rain was even heavier further north and the rivers swelled. Our drive back to the central town of Arawa came to a halt as we forded a river, the water going over the bonnet and into the engine, which died.



Rolling up our trousers, we pushed the four-wheel drive to the other side of the river and our media team became bush mechanics. Before long they had the car going but it was pouring out white smoke and sounding a bit sick.



On the third and final day of the trip, it was the big one - the visit to the controversial Panguna mine. When it started in the 1970s this Australian-run gold and copper mine was the biggest in the world, but disputes over environmental damage and compensation led to conflict, which soon morphed into a struggle for independence and a civil war between Bougainville and Papua New Guinea.



The visit to the mine was scheduled for the afternoon but I was woken at 6:45am and told I had 10 minutes to pack and jump in the car - we're off to Panguna, the PM's chopper is leaving, we have to go NOW! A mad scramble: get in the car, tear off to the police station. There's nobody there. We tear off to the market. There's still no sign of our police escort.



Two hours later, we were off.



We pass the rusty 'No-Go Zone' sign at the roadblock, maintained by the hardline faction the Me'ekamui. The ceremony is held in the shadow of what was once a three story building, the living quarters for single women when the mine was operating but now a burnt out ruin.



Ex-combatants stood side by side with police to manage security, while 20 members of the Me'ekamui march and stand to attention in faded brown fatigues.



I'd been told that as soon as the speeches were over, we had to rush to the cars and drive ahead to set up for the PM's tour of the mine pit. This was it, the shots I had come for. I'd been told it was 20 years since the ABC had gained access to the Panguna mine. As the car climbed, the mine came into view and we stopped for a wide shot - I set up the tripod, got three shots and was back in the car two minutes later.



As we drove I went over what I was going to say in my piece to camera and made a mental note of the sort of shots I wanted to get inside the mine pit. And then, the road looked sort of familiar. 'Guys, where are we going? We're not going back to Arawa are we?'



We were going back to Arawa. At some point the plan had changed and the visit to the mine pit had been called off. But nobody mentioned that until it was too late and we were speeding back past the road block, away from the shots that were central to the story I'd constructed in my head.



Those three wide shots were all I had of the mine itself.



But that's how it goes. If Papua New Guinea is The Land of the Unexpected, I was 930 kilometres east of there and this, my first trip off-base as the new PNG correspondent, was a lesson in going with the flow. Plans change, time is fluid. That's how it is. This is Bougainville. This is Papua New Guinea. This is my new reality.



ELIZABETH JACKSON: And that was the ABC's new PNG correspondent Liam Cochrane.

http://www.bougainville24.com/bcl/...r-local-training-and-employment/

The first meeting of the Joint Panguna Negotiation Coordination Committee (JPNCC) for 2014 was held in Port Moresby on Wednesday 22 January.
The meeting involved discussions on a number of matters relating the potential return of Bougainville Copper Limited (BCL) to the autonomous region.
The JPNCC consists of representatives of mine affected landowners, the Autonomous Bougainville Government (ABG), the Government of Papua New Guinea and BCL.
At the meeting the members of the JPNCC expressed a shared desire for significant landowner participation in employment around any return of BCL to Panguna and the activities that precede this.
Vocational training for employment will need to be carried out and the JPNCC will look to work closely with the ABG Division of Education, which is currently in the process of rolling out education programmes across Bougainville.
One of the first areas of employment would be support and services for the implementation of the environmental, social and economic baseline studies that are overseen by the JPNCC.
Discussions also took place on the process of bel kol, a customary conflict resolution process of remorse and redress between two parties.
BCL is keen, provided it is safe and acceptable to the landowners, to open an Arawa office following bel kol.
This office would also create several local jobs, including positions for liaison officers to the nine mine affected landowner areas.
The JPNCC will continue to meet throughout 2014, rotating between Port Moresby and Buka.
 

http://ramumine.wordpress.com/2014/02/10/...for-change-to-mining-act/

The National aka The Loggers Times

OPPOSITION leader Belden Namah wants to repeal the Mining Act for the benefit of landowners in project areas.

He recently told reporters in Bulolo, Morobe, that it was wrong for the Government to be the regulator and shareholder at the same time not only in mining and petroleum projects but in forestry, fishery and agriculture.

He wants the law amended to stop that.

Namah said the law was adopted from Australia where the State owned the land. He said this was not suitable for Papua New Guinea where the land was owned by the people.

He said a good example was the state of Bulolo and other mining districts which had not seen any changes in the many years of mining activities.

“When the Government takes up shares in the projects, it can’t be a fair regulator,” he said.

“The Government is playing the role of the investment partner and regulator and I believe the entire Mining Act should be repealed.

“I will push for the change in law so that the State should not be a shareholder in any major project. The State must only be the regulator and make laws and collect taxes. Only the landowner must partner the developer.

“Our resource is our collateral and the resource owner must be the direct participant in the project. How can the State say it will hold shares on behalf of the resource owners?”

....genau . 99,9 % sind Komentare von  Leuten die niemals Entscheidungsträger in diesem Spiel waren sind oder je werden. Das kennen wir ja hier auch. ;-)

Bei diesem Namen ...OPPOSITION leader Belden Namah wants to repeal the Mining Act for the benefit of landowners in project areas......., lese ich allerdings ganz genau .

Ich werde das Gefühl nicht los das er jetzt  noch öfter auftaucht wenn es um das bohren von dicken Brettern gehen wird. (hat nach meiner Einschätzung das Potential um die `Betonköpfe` der harten Fraktionen um Panguna in Richtung re-opening BCL zu führen. )

Nur meine Meinung. ;-))))))

 

Der nächste Megadeal im Rohstoffsektor.

http://vnr.srv3.de/...306&SYS=000&SCID=Y29uc3RydXRAcHQubHU%3D

Rest auf der Seite vom ESBC
Mehr muss man nicht sagen!
Geduld haben und nachkaufen!

The Tribal Government of the Meekamui would like to take this opportunity to assure the Prime Minister that we are not anti- business or anti-mining. The Meekamui are only interested in building a better community for our people and guaranteeing a bright future for our children. It is this commitment to our people and our future that stops us from repeating the mistakes of the past and ensures that our focus is entirely upon our future.

Prime Minister we have a historic opportunity to build a better Bougainville and a better and more equitable PNG that is defined by our future actions and not by our past. We have an opportunity to work together to ensure that our people will prosper and I am very excited to work with you on this historic project.

Ladies and Gentlemen shortly after this meeting the Leaders of the Meekamui and our advisers will join the Prime Minister in historic talks to build a better Bougainville. It is my hope that this meeting will provide a framework for future meetings with the Prime Minister and his advisers that will deliver the necessary services to protect our citizens rights, care for our sick and educate our young.

I would once again like to take this opportunity to thank him for his visit, may God bless you Prime Minister, our people and our beautiful country.  

...........dass die Stimmung bei vielen Marktbeobachtern schlechter ist als die Lage!

Fakt ist allerdings auch, dass Kupfer mit der Zunahme der Spannungen in den Schwellenländern und den Taperversuchen der chinesischen Regierung wieder unter die 200 Tage-Linie gefallen ist. Bricht die Nachfrage ein?

Schon im letzten Jahr waren sich die Analysten einig, dass der Kupfermarkt in 2014 von einem Produktionsüberhang gekennzeichnet sein würde, weil viele neue Projekte ihre Produktion aufnähmen. Das Gleiche gelte auch für Eisenerz. Sam Walsh, der Chef von Rio Tinto, sieht das bekanntlich ganz anders. Es gibt Anzeichen, dass das auch für Kupfer gilt.

Erstens haben sich die Kupferlager an der London Metall Exchange seit Sommer 2013 deutlich geleert. Offensichtlich ist die Nachfrage nach physischem Kupfer anhaltend groß und hat in den letzten sechs Monaten sogar zugenommen.

Zweitens befindet sich Kupfer schon seit einiger Zeit in Backwardation. Das bedeutet, dass Kunden die sofortige Lieferung des Kupfers der späteren vorziehen und deshalb einen gegenüber dem Futurepreis (rote Linie) höheren Spotmarktpreis (blaue Linie) zahlen.

Das ist ungewöhnlich. In der Regel befindet sich der Preis im Contango, d.h. der Futurepreis ist höher als der Spotmarktpreis, weil es z.B. teuerer ist, das Metall zu lagern. Außerdem enthält er eine gewisse Risikoprämie als Aufschlag.

Die Backwardation deutet darauf hin, dass der Kupfermarkt tatsächlich in ein Angebotsdefizit aufweist.

Es kann also sein, dass in letzter Zeit einige Spekulanten kalte Füße bekommen und den Kupferpreis gedrückt haben. Die physische Nachfrage aber ist stark.

Das deckt sich auch mit den Fehl-Prognosen des renommierte International Copper Study Group.

Im letzten Jahr gingen die Experten für 2013 von einem weltweiten Kupferüberschuss in Höhe von 387.000 Tonnen aus. Im aktuellen Bericht der Experten vom 22.01.2014 wird für den Zeitraum vom Januar bis Oktober 2013 ein Defizit in Höhe von 169.000 Tonnen ausgewiesen. Allein Chinas Nachfrage sei in diesem Zeitraum um 8,2% gegenüber dem Vorjahreszeitraum gestiegen. Zwar wurde die globale Minenproduktion tatsächlich um 8,4% ausgeweitet. Doch das neue Angebot wurde mehr als absorbiert. Dafür sprechen auch die fallenden Lagerbestände.

http://3199.seu.cleverreach.com/m/7230077/...489a997690bd677a1cd65cb8

....den eindruck habe ich auch, und das ist deckungsgleich mit der Situation bei Gold, diese beiden Metalle haben nicht nur eine geologische Vicinität. Beim Goldbashing soll dann  auch noch von einer Schwäche der Schuldscheinwährungen abgelenkt werden. Überhaupt: die Blender sind gefragt derzeit.
Aber für unsere speziellen Belange hier ist die Hauptmotivation weniger der Weltmarkpreis als vielmehr die Einsicht, nicht anderweitig in die "Puschen" zu kommen.
Zunächst ziert man sich noch, wer spielt schon gern den Wendehals ?

Und tschüß

b.