Der erste Krebsimpfstoff
Mein erster Tenbagger, wahnsinn, geil, wünch ich jeden Arivaner mal!
UPDATE 3-U.S. FDA OKs Dendreon's prostate cancer vaccine
Thu Apr 29, 2010 6:27pm EDTStocks * Product is first vaccine to treat cancer
* Cost set at $93,000
* Dendreon shares close up 27 percent (Adds comments from Dendreon, analyst, closing share price)
By Lisa Richwine
WASHINGTON, April 29 (Reuters) - The first vaccine to treat cancer won U.S. approval on Thursday as Dendreon Corp's (DNDN.O) Provenge marked a step forward in the search for new ways to the fight the disease.
Shares of biotechnology company Dendreon soared more than 30 percent after health officials approved the Provenge vaccine for advanced prostate cancer three years after the product's surprise rejection.
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Graphic on share price: link.reuters.com/fup99j
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"Provenge provides a new treatment option for men with advanced prostate cancer, who currently have limited effective therapies available," Karen Midthun, acting head of the Food and Drug Administration's biologics center, said in a statement.
Unlike traditional vaccines that prevent a disease, Provenge treats prostate cancer by stimulating the body's own immune system to attack malignant cells. It is produced by taking cells from a patient's tumor and incorporating them into a vaccine that is injected back into the patient.
The field has been littered with failures. Dendreon is the first company to show a cancer vaccine can extend patient survival. In a late-stage study of 512 patients, men given Provenge lived an average of 4.1 months longer than those who got a placebo.
Common side effects were chills, fever and headache that lasted up to two days following infusion. This is seen as an advantage over the debilitating side effects typical of chemotherapy.
Most reactions were mild or moderate but one-quarter of patients reported a serious problem, the FDA said. Problems such as strokes were seen in 3.5 percent of Provenge patients compared with 2.6 percent in the placebo group.
Dendreon said Provenge would cost a total of $93,000 for the full treatment of three infusions.
The vaccine's sales could easily top $1 billion a year, analysts say. Brean Murray Carret & Co analyst Jonathan Aschoff forecast annual Provenge sales of $1.45 billion in 2013 based on a higher-than-expected price, with peak sales topping $2 billion.
Prostate cancer is the second most common cancer among U.S. men behind skin cancer and usually occurs in older men.
The FDA approved Provenge for hormone-resistant prostate cancer that has spread in the body but is causing no or minimal symptoms.
Dr. Len Lichtenfeld, deputy chief medical officer at the American Cancer Society, said Provenge would give a boost to future efforts to develop treatment vaccines for cancer.
"This is exciting because it does represent a proof of concept. (Provenge) does seem to prolong life in a very specific group of men," he said.
Other companies are exploring the field. GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) is studying a lung cancer vaccine while Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY.N) is testing a melanoma vaccine.
Danish biotech Bavarian Nordic A/S (BAVA.CO) is about to start late-stage testing of a rival prostate cancer vaccine called Prostvac that does not need to be tailored to the individual patient.
It received a fast track designation from the FDA under which Bavarian Nordic can submit key data as it becomes available rather than waiting until pivotal studies are completed.
Initial Provenge supplies will be limited. Dendreon said it will make the vaccine available at about 50 sites.
Christopher Raymond, an analyst with Robert Baird & Co, said the company told investors in a conference call there will be only enough Provenge within the next 12 months to treat 2,000 patients, all from a factory in New Jersey that is operating at 25 percent capacity.
Dendreon said three plants will be running by mid-2011, which Raymond said should be able to supply 4,400 patients in 2011, and about 8,000 patients in 2012.
"I think the drug goes to $1 billion in short order," once the three plants are all up and running, he said.
Dendreon executives said the plants will be able to produce enough Provenge to generate annual sales of $1.2 billion to $2.5 billion.
"We think it will be used in a majority of these 30,000 patients per year" with an advanced type of prostate cancer, Cowen and Co analyst Ziad Bakri said.
Provenge had a rocky path to the market. Three years ago, an FDA advisory panel of outside experts found it was safe and had shown "substantial effectiveness." Despite the panel's favorable comments, the FDA sent Dendreon back to the clinic to confirm that the drug could extend patient survival.
Some cancer patients and Dendreon investors sharply criticized the agency for denying approval of a drug they said could help critically ill men with few options.
Dendreon shares were trading below $3 in March 2009 before the company unveiled the positive survival data.
Analyst Aschoff, who raised his price target on Dendreon stock to $50 earlier in the week, said he thinks the shares can now go even higher.
"I don't think the $50 range is a ceiling. You've just removed a very large risk element and you have a higher price" for Provenge than many investors expected, he said. (Reporting by Lisa Richwine, Bill Berkrot, Ransdell Pierson and Susan Heavey, editing by Maureen Bavdek, Leslie Gevirtz and Steve Orlofsky)
Wells Fargo Raises Valuation Range on Dendreon (DNDN) to $63-$70/Share
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April 30, 2010 7:32 AM EDT
Wells Fargo raised its valuation range on Dendreon Corp. (Nasdaq: DNDN), following Provenge approval, from $47-$52 to $63-$70.
The firm said, "We value Dendreon on our 2014 Provenge revenue estimate of $1.7 billion capitalized at 9-10x and discounted 15% to arrive at a 2010 valuation range of $8.9-$9.9 billion.
The $1.7 billion figure is achieved by treating an estimated 17,977 patients in the U.S. at $90k per year and 253 in Europe at $72k per year.
The firm said the most important thing is that the cost will be $31k per dose, or the cost of a total course is $93K. The firm notes, "The consensus amongst sell-siders was an expected cost of $65.7k and buy-side investors seemed be modeling a range of $65-$75k. We had modeled and annual price of $70k."
In addition, Dendreon will go it alone in Europe.
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May 2, 2010 - 10:09AM
AAP
An 18-year rollercoaster ride for Seattle biotech Dendreon ended on a high point on Thursday, with federal approval of the country's first cancer treatment vaccine.
The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) gave the long-awaited green light for use of the vaccine, called Provenge, to treat men with an advanced form of prostate cancer.
"This is incredibly exciting for patients," said Dendreon CEO Dr Mitchell Gold. "It's incredibly exciting for the company as a validation of the work we've been doing."
Unlike traditional vaccines, which are meant to prevent infection, Provenge is designed for men who already have cancer. The treatment activates patients' own immune systems to attack their tumours.
"The availability of Provenge provides a new treatment option for men with advanced prostate cancer, who currently have limited effective therapies available," FDA official Dr Karen Midthun said in a statement.
Gold said the company is ready to begin manufacturing the drug at a plant in New Jersey.
Men who are interested in the treatment should contact their physicians.
Initially, Dendreon will probably not be able to meet the demand for Provenge, Gold said. But the company is expanding capacity at the New Jersey plant and is building two additional plants in Georgia and California.
"All three plants will be on line by the middle of next year," Gold said.
In a study of more than 500 men with prostate cancer that had spread to other parts of their bodies, Provenge extended median survival time by four months compared with a placebo. Nearly a third of the men who got Provenge were still alive after three years, compared with less than a quarter of those who received a placebo.
Unlike chemotherapy, which is the only other treatment option for men with this type of cancer, Provenge has very few side effects.
"For patients, it's a no-brainer," said Dr. Celestia Higano, a prostate cancer specialist at Seattle Cancer Care Alliance who participated in the trials.
© 2010 AAP
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/...-jab-20100502-u0oz.html
Other company officials also sold shares shortly after the FDA's action.
In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the company disclosed that Dr. Gold exercised options on 270,625 shares at prices ranging from $4.41 to ...
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UPDATE 1-Dendreon posts wider-than-expected Q1 loss
Mon May 10, 2010 2:30pm EDTStocks
Dendreon Corp
DNDN.O
$44.95
+1.04+2.37%
7:22pm UTC+0200
* Q1 loss/shr $0.96 vs est loss/shr $0.39
* Q1 rev $21,000 vs est $60,000
* Sees patients to begin receiving Provenge in May 2010
May 10 (Reuters) - Dendreon Corp (DNDN.O) posted a wider-than-expected quarterly loss on expenses related to pre-commercialization efforts for its prostate cancer vaccine Provenge.
The company, which recently got U.S. regulatory approval for the first vaccine to directly treat cancer, said it expects patients to be scheduled and start receiving Provenge in May 2010.
Net loss for the first quarter was $125.7 million, or 96 cents a share, compared with a net loss of $15.4 million, or 16 cents a share, a year ago.
Revenue for the quarter fell 30 percent to $21,000.
Analysts on average expected the company to post a loss of 39 cents a share, on revenue of $60,000, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Shares of the company were trading up about 4 percent
I'll note that Dendreon will place its second active immunotherapy drug, Neuvenge, into a randomized Phase II study in bladder and ovarian cancer later in 2010. Ironically, the next Dendreon could literally be Dendreon if that trial is successful.
Mein erster Tenbagger könnte der Nächste sein, wow!
Brean Murray, Carret & Co - Dendreon"buy"
12:17 01.07.10
Rating-Update:
New York (aktiencheck.de AG) - Jonathan Aschoff, Analyst von Brean Murray, Carret & Co, stuft die Aktie von Dendreon (Profil) mit "buy" ein. Das Kursziel werde bei 65 USD erhöht. (01.07.2010/ac/a/u)
Immunzellen gegen Krebs
Mit Provenge bringt der Biotechnologie-Konzern Dendreon den ersten Impfstoff gegen Prostatakrebs auf den Markt. Die Chancen und Risiken für Anleger
Von FOCUS-MONEY-Autorin Kathrin Sandmair
Google AnzeigenDendritische Zellen
Entwicklung neuer Immuntherapie Forschung im Bereich Life-Science
www.cellmed.at
Ein Schritt vorwärts, zwei Schritte zurück. Die Entwicklung von Impfstoffen gegen Krebs ist eine Zeit und Nerven raubende Angelegenheit. Schon vor mehr als 100 Jahren fiel dem New Yorker Arzt William Coley auf, dass ein durch andere Infektionen angestacheltes Immunsystem Krebszellen attackieren kann. Damals injizierte der Arzt einem Patienten, der nur noch wenige Wochen zu leben hatte, Bakterien. Als der Körper Abwehrzellen entwickelte, bekämpften die Immunkörperchen neben der Infektion auch den Tumor. Der Patient überlebte acht Jahre. Seitdem machte die Forschung mit Impfstoffen gegen Krebs eine wahre Achterbahnfahrt durch.
Wie viele Patienten gehen auf einen Hausarzt?
Gefragt von 3WALDE Langer Atem. Auch das amerikanische Biotechnologie-Unternehmen Dendreon investierte eine gefühlte Ewigkeit in die Erforschung eines Impfstoffs gegen Prostatakrebs. „In 15 Jahren brauchten wir mehr als 1000 mutige Patienten, 15 klinische Studien und beinahe eine Milliarde Dollar, um die Forschung und Entwicklung von Provenge zu finanzieren“, sagt Vorstand Mitchell Gold. Bereits vor zehn Jahren begann die klinische Prüfung. Damals verweigerte die amerikanische Zulassungsbehörde FDA (Food and Drug Administration) die Zulassung, weil sie die Wirksamkeit des Mittels anzweifelte. Also musste eine weitere Phase-III-Studie her.
Letztendlich hat sich der Aufwand gelohnt. Vor wenigen Wochen gab die FDA grünes Licht für Dendreons Impfstoff Provenge. Die Ergebnisse der Daten aus insgesamt drei Phase-III-Studien überzeugten die Behörde. An der Studie nahmen Männer mit einem Durchschnittsalter von 71 Jahren teil. Bei allen Patienten streute der Tumor bereits in Knochen wie Wirbelsäule, Rippen- und Beckenknochen. Wenn die Krankheit schon so weit fortgeschritten ist, sind je nach Zeitpunkt der Entdeckung sowohl die operative Entfernung der Prostata als auch Strahlen- und Hormonbehandlung wirkungslos. Dann bleibt dem Arzt nur noch die Chemotherapie, um den Krankheitsverlauf zu verzögern. Für eine Heilung ist es zu spät.
Provenge kann den Krebs ebenfalls nicht besiegen, erhöhte in der Studie aber die Überlebensdauer der Testpersonen gegenüber der Kontrollgruppe um 4,1 Monate auf 25,8 Monate (siehe Grafik im Kasten).
Das Ganze hat allerdings seinen Preis. Stolze 93 000 Dollar kostet die aufwendige Therapie mit dem neuen Wundermittel. Patienten der Krankenkasse Medicare haben in den Vereinigten Staaten jedoch Anspruch auf die Behandlung, sofern sie mindestens 65 Jahre alt sind. Das ist bei Männern mit unheilbarem Prostatakrebs meistens der Fall.
Fehlende Kapazitäten. Das stellt den Hersteller Dendreon vor ein Problem: Laut der amerikanischen Krebsgesellschaft erkranken in den USA jährlich rund 190 000 Männer an Prostatakrebs, davon ist etwa die Hälfte gegen die Hormonbehandlung mit Androgen-Blockern resistent. Bisher wurden solch hartnäckige Fälle überwiegend mit dem Chemotherapeutikum Taxotere von Sanofi-Aventis behandelt. Provenge hat gegenüber Taxotere Vorteile: Heftige Nebenwirkungen wie Haarausfall und Nervenerkrankungen werden vermieden. Setzt sich Provenge durch, muss Dendreon jedes Jahr Zehntausende Dosen beschaffen. Bis Jahresende geben die Kapazitäten gerade mal 2000 Einheiten her. Daher errichtet der Konzern derzeit drei neue Produktionsstätten in New Jersey, Atlanta und Los Angeles. „Wenn alle Anlagen ausgelastet sind, spült Provenge in den USA mehr als eine Milliarde Dollar in Dendreons Kassen“, schätzt Analyst Cory Kasimov von JP Morgan.
Zukunftsmusik. Während die US-Amerikaner spätestens ab der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2011 den Heimatmarkt voll bearbeiten können, ist Europa noch ein unbeschriebenes Blatt. Die Zulassung bei der europäischen Behörde EMEA ist bisher noch nicht beantragt. „Das wollen wir jetzt nachholen“, sagt Gold. Die Meinungen über die Erfolgschancen gehen auseinander. „Wir wissen zwar, dass der Impfstoff wirkt, aber nicht, wie“, sagt Professor Peter Albers vom Uniklinikum Düsseldorf. Albers glaubt daher, dass die EMEA ihre Zustimmung verweigert. Der Urologe lag in der Vergangenheit mit seinen Einschätzungen aber schon öfter daneben. Potenzial hätte der europäische Markt jedenfalls. Allein in Deutschland diagnostizieren Ärzte nach Angaben des Robert Koch-Instituts jährlich rund 60 000 neue Fälle.
Noch verfügt Dendreon auf dem europäischen Kontinent weder über Standorte noch über die nötige Logistik und müsste für zwei Produktionsanlagen mindestens 200 Millionen Dollar investieren. Deshalb schließt Analyst Joseph Pantginis von Roth Capital Partners Partnerschaften mit Pharma-Riesen wie Bristol-Myers, Sanofi-Aventis oder Glaxo-SmithKline nicht aus.
Im Hinblick auf die attraktive Produktpipeline, in der sich neben Provenge auch Immuntherapie-Produkte gegen Brust-, Nieren- oder Lungenkrebs in unterschiedlichen Entwicklungsstadien befinden, wäre Dendreon außerdem ein geeigneter Übernahmekandidat. Für den Einkauf muss die Konkurrenz schon jetzt etwas tiefer in die Taschen greifen. Schließlich besitzt das Unternehmen mittlerweile einen Börsenwert von fast sechs Milliarden Dollar, überwiegend befeuert durch die FDA-Entscheidung. Schlagen Bristol & Co. erst zu, wenn Provenge in den Vereinigten Staaten und Europa flächendeckend an den Mann kommt, wird es für sie angesichts der Umsatzprognosen von rund zwei Milliarden Dollar bis 2014 richtig teuer. Für Aktionäre geht es dann einen gewaltigen Schritt nach oben – und das in deutlich weniger als 15 Jahren.
Google AnzeigenIst Ihr PSA-Wert erhöht?
Prostatakrebs mit dem MRT sichtbar machen - keine mehrfache Biopsie!
Prostata-Biopsie.Alta-Klinik.de
PROVENGE Angriff der Killerzellen Bei dem Wort „Impfung“ denken viele Patienten vermutlich sofort an ihre Kindheit zurück, als Ärzte mit bedrohlich wirkenden Spritzen das Behandlungszimmer betraten. Dabei funktioniert Provenge (sipuleucel-T) nach dem gleichen Prinzip wie ein herkömmlicher Impfstoff etwa gegen Grippe. Bei der aktiven Impfung oder Immunisierung – auch Vakzination genannt – wird der Impfstoff in Form abgeschwächter, abgetöteter oder fragmentierter Krankheitserreger in den Körper gebracht. Ziel der Impfung ist es, das körpereigene Immunsystem zur Bildung spezifischer Antikörper anzuregen und so eine Immunität gegen die entsprechende Infektionskrankheit zu bewirken. Nur ist Provenge im Gegensatz zur Grippeimpfung keine vorbeugende Maßnahme, sondern kann erst angewandt werden, wenn der Krebs bereits ausgebrochen ist. Die ideale Zielgruppe bilden Patienten, deren Tumor trotz Entfernung der Prostata, einer Strahlentherapie oder Verabreichung von Androgen-Blockern weiterwächst und in Knochen streut. Zunächst filtern Ärzte über einen Katheter Abwehrzellen aus dem Blut des Patienten heraus. Dendreon untersucht anschließend die entnommenen Zellen auf das genetische Profil des Tumors hin. Dadurch lässt sich erkennen, welche Gene mutiert, vervielfältigt oder gelöscht sind. Auf dieser Grundlage werden sie mit einem Enzym konfrontiert, das in der Prostata vorkommt und das der Krebs zum Wachsen braucht. Das Protein stachelt die Immunzellen des Patienten so an, dass es Abwehrstoffe gegen den Krebs bildet. Ist der Prozess abgeschlossen, erhält der Patient die entnommenen Abwehrzellen über eine Infusion zurück. Sie attackieren nun die Krebszellen im Körper des Menschen. Die Behandlung erfordert insgesamt drei Dosen im Abstand von zwei Wochen. Als Nebenwirkungen können grippeähnliche Symptome wie Schüttelfrost, Kopfschmerzen, Müdigkeit, Übelkeit und Fieber auftreten. DendreonSchlagwörter: Atlanta Aventis Biotech Bristol Düsseldorf Europa Impfstoff Krebs Los Angeles Patienten Prostata Prostatakrebs Tumor USA Vereinigten s
Durch Tom Randall - 28. Juli 2010 11.00 Uhr GMT +0200 Wed Jul 28 21:00:00 UTC 2010
E-Mail Anteil
Business ExchangeTwitterDeliciousDiggFacebookLinkedInNewsvinePropellerYahoo! BuzzDrucken Dendreon Corp'S Prostatakrebs -Impfstoff, Provenge , verlängert Leben um 4,1 Monate in einer Studie veröffentlicht in der New England Journal of Medicine. Die Daten veröffentlicht, zuvor , führte zu der Droge US-Zulassung im April.
Provenge ist das erste Medikament entwickelt, um das körpereigene Immunsystem zur Bekämpfung von Krebs und Zug ist die effektivste Behandlung für bestimmte Patienten mit fortgeschrittenem Prostata- Tumoren , sagte Philip Kantoff, Professor für Medizin an der Harvard Medical School und Leiter der Studie Autor. Forscher noch nicht genau wissen, wie der Impfstoff funktioniert oder wer ist am ehesten davon profitieren , sagte er.
Da weniger als 100.000 Patienten mit Prostatakrebs haben Anspruch auf Provenge erhalten , obwohl Dendreon hat gesagt, es hat die Kapazität auf knapp 2.000 Patienten im ersten Jahr unterzubringen. Dendreon Aktien Achtfache seit heute veröffentlichten Ergebnisse wurden zunächst in einem Wissenschaftsmuseum Sitzung im April 2009 vorgelegt erhöht. In den letzten drei Monaten haben die Aktien stürzten rund 40 Prozent unter Versorgungsschwierigkeiten und Besorgnis darüber, ob die US-Regierung die Medicare -Programm für die $ 93.000 Behandlung zu bezahlen .
"Ich denke, wir müssen besser erkennen , wie es funktioniert und wie es besser gemacht werden ", sagte Harvard's Kantoff , der auch Chef der Onkologie solider Tumor an der Dana -Farber Cancer Institute in Boston, in einem Telefoninterview. "Das ist wirklich der erste Schritt auf dem Gebiet der Immuntherapie "
Provenge nimmt einen neuen Ansatz zur Behandlung von Krebs . Ärzte Blut aus dem Körper des Patienten und erzeugen eine persönliche Dosis des Impfstoffs . Die Ergebnisse der Studie , der heute veröffentlicht wird , in 512 Patienten wurden im Einklang mit zwei kleineren Studien, die US-Regulierungsbehörden zu überzeugen, das Medikament im Jahr 2007 genehmigt habe , sagten Forscher .
Patienten in der Studie hatten eine mediane Überlebenszeit von 25,8 Monaten mit Provenge , verglichen mit 21,7 Monaten mit einem Placebo. Die Männer hatten fortgeschrittenen Tumoren, die verfügbaren Behandlungen zu überwinden hatte.
Mystery Mechanism
Patienten, die eine starke Antikörper-Reaktion gegen Provenge hatten, wurden häufiger , länger zu leben , was auf eine mögliche Signal , wie das Medikament wirkt , so die Studie. Allerdings hat das Medikament nicht Tumorverkleinerung oder verzögern maligne Wachstum. Das Fehlen eines messbaren Effekt auf den Krebs bleibt ein Geheimnis und könnte bedeuten, Ergebnisse wurden durch die Behandlungen oder Bedingungen, die Patienten in der Studie nicht beeinflusst wurden geprüft , sagte Dan Longo, stellvertretender Chefredakteur der Zeitschrift , in einem Leitartikel, dass die Studie begleitet .
" Zu der Zeit, die Daten an die FDA vorgestellt wurde , das ist ein ziemlich ausgereift Studie war ", sagte Robert Dreicer, Vorsitzender des soliden Tumors Onkologie an der Cleveland Clinic in Ohio und ein Autor der Studie , in einem Telefon-Interview . "Wir wissen immer noch nicht mehr über den Mechanismus .
"Diese Fragen der Kosten und der Verfügbarkeit gehen zu beeinflussen , wie schnell das wird in Disease-Management- spielen ", sagte Dreicer .
Dendreon fiel $ 1.47, oder 4.2 Prozent auf $ 33,39 bei 4 Uhr heute im Nasdaq Stock Market Composite -Handel.
Um Kontakt mit dem Reporter über diese Geschichte : Tom Randall in New York trandall6@bloomberg.net.
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August 4, 2010 8:11 AM EDT
Needham & Company reiterates a 'Buy' rating on Dendreon Corp (Nasdaq: DNDN), PT $62.
Needham analyst says, "While revenue fell short of expectations in this first quarter of market launch, we are encouraged by the early 3Q10 sales, 500 PROVENGE prescriptions to date, and on-time manufacturing build-out schedule. Our revenue projections for 2010-2013 are unchanged at $71MM, $362MM, $849MM, and $1.2B. While revenue represents a quantifiable figure for assessment during the PROVENGE launch, we believe that 2010 is really about “getting it right,” in terms of PROVENGE manufacturing, delivery, ease of use, and reimbursement. Although the underlying purposes and the potential outcomes of the NCA are unclear to us, we do not expect potential NCD will restrict the on-label usage of PROVENGE, which has demonstrated solid survival benefits in well designed, randomized clinical trials."
To see all the upgrades/downgrades on shares of DNDN, visit our Analyst Ratings page.
Dendreon Corporation (Dendreon) is a biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of therapeutics that may improve cancer treatment options for patients.
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August 4, 2010 10:38 AM EDT
Baird reiterates an 'Outperform' rating on Dendreon (Nasdaq: DNDN), price target $64.
Baird analyst says, "We expect DNDN shares to be up this morning on Q210’s detailed, positive Provenge update. We believe that most investors will look past Q210’s Provenge shortfall, as July sales were $5.2M despite a 10-day facility shutdown. We think this result combined with measurable reimbursement progress and reiterated first-year guidance of 2,000 treated patients will be sufficient to keep DNDN shares working here. Remain buyers."
To see all the upgrades/downgrades on shares of DNDN, visit our Analyst Ratings page.
Dendreon Corporation (Dendreon) is a biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of therapeutics that may improve cancer treatment options for patients.
4 comments | by: James Altucher August 26, 2010 | about: CSH / DNDN / LPS Font Size: PrintEmail Recommend 0 Share this page
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an article to The first article I read this morning, (at 3:56am, my early morning, pre-coffee, article read before catching a 4:40am train), started off with: "Stocks are likely to face another choppy, downtrodden week, but that's no big surprise". Man, someone is depressed. But it's not just that article writer, everyone really is depressed. Things are ugly out there. Even though we have GDP growth, even though retail sales are up significantly year over year,even though GM, that beacon of American industry, is coming public after two back-to-back profitable quarters, everyone assumes we are heading towards a double-dip.
We also have visceral memories of what happened the last time the country was in a recession (October, 2008). The entire world fell apart and the S&P skidded almost 1000 points. The world really felt like it was ending. I lived on the corner of Wall and Broad at that time. You couldn't find any light in people's eyes. It was like land of the zombies as traders marched into the New York Stock Exchange across the street. Nobody wants that again. Nobody wants to be a zombie.
But the reality is, shorting the market at the worst, most depressing moments would've cost you money. Lots of it. The sad, depressing moments are when you want to stop listening to economists and you want to start looking for stocks. Heck, I should stop reading these early morning, "lets get the week started" articles. Particularly before my first coffee of the day.
Let's be smart about it, though. If you're worried about a double dip, pick stocks that could go up long-term if the economy goes down from here, but also have a decent chance if the economy goes up:
Lender Processor Services (LPS). A spnoff of Fidelity National, LPS provides technology and services to the mortgage and real estate industries. Its business has been booming lately. How come? I thought mortgages were heading towards their lows? Well, when people stop paying a mortgage, a foreclosure is a long and complicated process. LPS is there every step of the way helping banks and lenders foreclose on properties. Not the funnest job in society (I highly recommend the 1980s movie "Repo Man") but profitable. The company trades for just 7 times forward earnings. This is a classic spinoff play that drops when the holders of the parent don't want the child (so there is irrational selling).
Cash America (CSH) I first recommended this on CNBC in February 2009 when it was trading at $14. Now its at $30 and still cheap because of the massive growth they've experienced during this recession, as predicted.
- about 70% of their revenues are pawnshop, 30% payday lending.
Pawnshops are great because you loan the money AND keep the
collateral, which is usually valued at about a 20-50% loan to value.
And the interest rates are extremely high.
- trades at about 5 times cash flows.
- very cheap right now because of worries about regulatory issues.
Ohio just stopped payday lending for instance and CSH had to close its
stores there. However, this is particular to Ohio and has not been a
major trend. If payday lending stopped then millions of voters would
be without banking.
- ironically, inflation is helping CSH because the prices of the gold
bracelets, necklaces, etc in their pawn shops are going up.
Dendreon (DNDN) - of course I have to pick Dendreon. Prostate cancer has nothing to do with the economy and is one of the biggest killers of men. Provenge is the first FDA-approved drug that will significantly improve survivability of the cancer. In trials for men over the age of 65 in late stages of the disease the survival rate was 23 months versus 17 months for the control group. When this company is making $800mm in earnings by selling the drug its not going to have a $5bb market cap but will end up being acquired for $10bb+. The stock is still at the same levels it was at pre getting approval for their drug. I expect this will be a $70 stock no matter which direction the economy goes.
Ignore the stocks that everyone is focused on. Even though AAPL and GOOG are the greatest companies in the world, they will go up and down with the market. And while Goldman Sachs (GS) was the one major bank to basically survive unscathed during the last recession, I wouldn't count on it for any potential next double dip given the amount of hate and fear its engendered among the populace.
While I don't think we are in a double-dip, it's always good to hope for the best and prepare for the worst. These three stocks will do well in a double-dip but also do well in a rising economy for the reasons described. Protect your portfolio.
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Dendreon Corp
DNDN.O
$35.84
+0.15+0.42%
9:00pm UTC+0200
Tue Aug 31, 2010 5:17pm EDT
* Advisory panel to review Provenge data Nov. 17
* Agency will use input to help decide payment policy
* Final decision won't be based on cost-CMS.
WASHINGTON, Aug 31 (Reuters) - The U.S. agency that runs the Medicare health insurance program scheduled a Nov. 17 advisory panel meeting on Tuesday to review data on Dendreon Corp's (DNDN.O) novel treatment for advanced prostate cancer.
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) said in June that it was considering a nationwide coverage policy for Provenge, a vaccine that stimulates the body's immune system to fight prostate cancer.
Nationwide Medicare coverage can help boost a product's success, while a denial can sharply dent sales. Medicare is the federal health insurance that covers about 45 million elderly and disabled Americans.
The $93,000 price tag to treat a patient with Provenge has drawn attention, and some investors and patient advocates worry Medicare will limit use to save money. The agency has said the decision will not be based on cost.
The advisory panel that meets in November will provide input for CMS to consider in making the final decision.
(Reporting by Lisa Richwine, editing by Leslie Gevirtz)
Bin jetzt echt gespannt wie Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) da jetzt weiter macht. Die haben Druck aus allen Ecken bekommen.
http://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2010/09/...-worry-free.aspx