Das Bärengebrüll wird schon wieder lauter,
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Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street's mortgage losses have grown so large that some firms may pay little or no taxes for years, widening New York City and state deficits and challenging their ability to provide services, Mayor Michael Bloomberg said.
Some companies are seeking refunds from the city on taxes they prepaid, saying losses have cut their tax liability to zero. The banks pay tax on 110 percent of earnings in advance as a ``safe harbor,'' protecting against penalties for underpayment.
``It will be a number of years before Wall Street starts paying taxes again,'' the mayor said at a press conference yesterday in Manhattan. ``They will carry forward all of those losses.''
Financial firms posted $501 billion in writedowns and credit losses worldwide since the start of last year, a figure the World Bank predicts may rise to $1 trillion as the credit squeeze sparked by the subprime market collapse worsens. The tax drain is particularly serious in New York, where Wall Street accounts for 20 percent of state revenue and about 9 percent for the city, state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli has said.
``If the World Bank's prediction that the large investment banks will book up to $1 trillion in writedowns because of the mortgage crisis is true, then Mayor Bloomberg is absolutely right,'' said Lynn Turner, former chief accounting officer of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. ``These guys won't be paying taxes for some time.''
Citigroup, Merrill
Citigroup Inc. has taken about $55 billion in losses and slashed more than 14,000 jobs, while Merrill Lynch & Co. has lost $51.8 billion and cut 5,220 jobs, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. The mayor is founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News.
Merrill, the third-biggest U.S. securities firm, recorded a $4.2 billion global income tax benefit in 2007 and $4.8 billion in the first six months of 2008, according to company reports. The 2007 tax breakdown included $185 million in current and deferred benefits on the company's state and local taxes and $1.26 billion on federal tax benefits, according to the company's 2007 annual report.
Companies such as Merrill are allowed to use those benefits to get refunds on taxes paid in the prior two years and to offset tax payments going forward for as long as two decades, said Robert Willens, president and chief executive officer of Robert Willens LLC, a tax consulting company in New York.
Six Years
``They'll try to use that as quickly as they can,'' Willens said. ``If you add up all of the Wall Street losses, you're talking about not paying taxes for five or six years easily.''
While analysts expect firms including Merrill and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. to report losses for 2008, some other Wall Street firms will probably remain profitable and keep paying taxes. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, the two largest U.S. securities firms, are expected by analysts to record profits this year.
Goldman had a net tax expense of $6.01 billion in 2007, including $488 million in current and deferred state and local taxes, according to the company's annual report.
Emergency Session
New York Governor David Paterson called the Legislature back to work next week in an emergency session to address widening deficits as revenue, including tax receipts from Wall Street, declines. Sixteen of the state's largest banks sent taxes totaling $5 million to the state treasury in the most recent reporting period, a 97 percent decrease from a year earlier, when they accounted for $173 million in revenue, Paterson said.
The state faces a $26 billion deficit over the next three years and a $630 million shortfall in the current year that began April 1, Paterson has said. The governor yesterday outlined $630 million in administrative spending cuts he intends to apply this year, and he called upon the Legislature to cut at least $600 million more later in August.
``A lot of what we're facing now are the diminished revenues from Wall Street, with capital gains down 24 percent and personal bonuses down 20 percent, and Wall Street losing $40 billion in its last three quarters,'' Paterson, a Democrat who took over as governor in March following Eliot Spitzer's resignation, said yesterday.
Widening Gap
In the city, where Wall Street provides about 5 percent of jobs and more than 20 percent of total personal income, deficits are projected to widen to $2.3 billion in fiscal 2010 beginning next July, growing to $5.96 billion and $5.4 billion in 2011 and 2012, city Comptroller William Thompson has said.
``We still haven't come to grips with how deep will be the impact on New York City's and the state's economy and budget resulting from this credit crisis,'' said Kathryn Wylde, president of the Partnership for New York City, a civic group of corporate chief executives organized to promote commerce.
The mayor didn't name the firms that contacted the city seeking repayments of their taxes. The companies generally file estimated quarterly taxes based on a formula that provides 110 percent of earnings in the prior year.
``You have to give them the money back,'' Mayor Bloomberg said. ``We've already collected it, but we can't spend it because it's not ours.''
City Services
Paterson's call for the state to reduce spending included his suggestion that the Legislature reduce support for the state's municipalities by 6 percent. While the mayor pledged to maintain good city services, he said the state and the city's difficulties with Wall Street would have an effect.
``When the state government says they are going to cut back they are fundamentally going to shift that expense downstream to us, so it is the mayor's or county leaders', in all 60 counties, that are going to have to deal with where the revenue goes,'' Bloomberg said.
``I'm not preaching doom and gloom,'' the mayor said. ``I am preaching that it is likely to be difficult and trying and we have to work together.''
New York City won its highest debt ratings in recent years, AA from Standard & Poor's and Aa3 from Moody's Investors Service, as Wall Street profits soared and the real estate market boomed. The largest Wall Street firms paid a combined $30 billion in bonuses in early 2007 because of record 2006 profits, Turner said.
New York state has $50 billion of outstanding debt. Ratings range from AAA for bonds backed by personal income taxes or sales tax, to AA for state general obligation debt and AA- for bonds that require appropriations by the Legislature, according to Standard & Poor's.
``I am worried about the state's bond rating, and it will start to fall if the governor doesn't do something about his budget problems now,'' Bloomberg said. ``The rating agencies are cognizant of what's happening to our economy.''
The cumulative projected deficit the state faces over the next three years has widened 22 percent since May, to $26.2 billion from $21.5 billion, Paterson said. The current budget is $80.5 billion, excluding capital projects and federal aid.
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dann muesste der dollar doch an wert verlieren....und da oel doch in dollar gehandelt wird...so muesste der oelpreis doch steigen um den wertverlust auszugleichen?
Wenn man betrachtet, wie WILLKÜRLICH die Börsenwerte von Tag zu Tag hinundherspringen, dann ist - auch bei einem Referenzzeitraum von 3 Monaten - klar, dass der Börsenwert für die Unternehmensbewertung untauglich ist... Es liegt kein aussagekräftiger Markt vor, der einen realistischen Martpreis hervorbringt...
Der Dow Jones-Index habe den Ausbruch über die Allzeithochs von 2000 bei 11.700 Punkten gestern mit abermals festeren Notierungen bestätigt. Somit würden die mittelfristigen Kaufsignale an Konturen gewinnen. Damit sei der Weg nach oben jetzt zunächst frei bis zur psychologisch wichtigen Grenze von 12.000, was gleichzeitig das Kursziel einer typischen 50%-Korrektur der Mai-Abschläge bedeute.
Nachdem der EUR/USD-Kurs am Freitag unter den massiven Kreuzwiderstand von 1,52 gefallen sei, sei die schwache Tendenz am gestrigen Tag mit einem Rückfall auf 1,49 fortgesetzt worden. Damit sei jetzt auch die psychologisch wichtige Marke von 1,50 gebreakt worden, so dass auf breiter Front neue Verkaufssignale zu unterstellen seien. Nach dem heftigen Kurseinbruch sei eine technische Gegenreaktion zwar greifbar, doch die Abwärtsrisiken seien nun noch einmal angestiegen.
Bei den Rohstoffen Gold und Silber hätten sich die anfänglichen Kurseinbußen zu einem regelrechten Sell-Off ausgeweitet. Der Goldpreis sei unter die historischen Tops aus dem Jahr 1980 bei 850 USD zurückgefallen und teste mittlerweile bereits die Marke von 800 USD. Silber habe gestern weitere 2,6% verloren und kämpfe derzeit mit der 2005er Aufwärtstrendkanalbegrenzung bei 15 USD. Damit belaufe sich das Minus seit den Juli-Tops auf 14% bei Gold und auf 21% bei Silber. Auf solche Rückgänge müssten technische Erholungen folgen und da momentan wesentliche Auffanglinien getestet würden, könnten diese jederzeit beginnen. Die Experten würden deswegen hier vorerst neutral bleiben und die technischen Gegenreaktionen abwarten.
Während die Rohstoffmärkte und der Euro momentan heftig gebeutelt würden, fehle an den meisten Aktienmärkten lediglich noch ein kleiner Funke, um neue mittelfristige Aufwärtsbewegungen zu initiieren.
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Entweder also weiter Abwärtspotential, oder es geht weiter Aufwärts.
Mal sehen. Mein Long ist schon gekauft.
Angehängte Grafik:
profichart_12082008_2103.png (verkleinert auf 70%)
profichart_12082008_2103.png (verkleinert auf 70%)
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Die Finanzwerte ziehen mächtig nach unten, nach den Zahlen von J.P. Morgan (Minus 11%) und einer möglichen weiteren Bankpleite (Vineyard). Der an Finanz-Schrott arme NDX dreht fast unverändert gemütlich seine Runden.