Apple - Chancen und Risiken

Apple Stays Fresh
To Keep in Lead


Each year, Apple Inc. sweeps out its old line of gadgets to make room for an even spiffier group of products for the holidays. And, each year around this time, Apple rivals and others dumbfounded by its multiyear winning streak in the electronics business wonder whether this is the holiday season when the company will finally stumble.

Don't bet on it. This Monday, Apple will offer the first hint of how its computers, iPods and new iPhones are likely to perform during the crucial holiday shopping season when it reports its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings for the period ended late September. The earnings will include the first sales results from a new family of iPods and the iPhone's first full quarter of sales.

Keeping its iPods fresh in a market that seems increasingly saturated with devices is something of a high-wire act for Apple. The Cupertino, Calif., company introduced the iPod in late 2001 and has sold more than 110 million of the digital music players, holding its share of the U.S. market steady at more than 70% despite an array of rivals including Microsoft Corp.

In early September, Apple dumped its old iPod nano, the skinny device that was its best-selling music player, replacing it with a chubbier model -- Apple fans quickly nicknamed it the "fatboy" nano -- that plays video. It also ripped the cellphone and other features out of the iPhone to create the new iPod touch with its large touch-sensitive screen.

Early signs suggest the new iPods are a hit. "They had just a tremendous September," says Tony Berkman, an analyst for Majestic Research, a financial-research firm that uses Internet sales figures from various sources to determine a company's overall performance.

In a potential red flag for the current holiday quarter, Mr. Berkman said Majestic's research shows iPods sales slowed considerably in the first two weeks in October. But he says it's tough to read deeply into what that means. Apple will likely give a sign of its confidence when it provides financial forecasts for the current quarter, which ends in late December.

The iPhone appears to be selling well, too, especially after Apple dropped the price by $200 to $399 in early September. Analysts believe Apple will report about one million iPhones sold in the quarter ended late September, on top of the 270,000 they sold in the 30 hours it was available during the prior quarter.

Much hinges on the iPhone, a potentially huge new category for Apple. The company's shares are up approximately 25% since its last earnings report in late July, based on optimism over new products like the iPhone. Chief Executive Steve Jobs has predicted Apple will sell 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008, giving it 1% of the cellphone market.

Based on sales so far, and the high probability of new iPhone models from Apple next year, Mr. Berkman says it isn't a stretch for them to meet that goal.  

Earnings Preview: Apple
Analysts Expect Strong Fourth Quarter for Apple, Analysts Say Company Could Beat

NEW YORK (Associated Press) - Apple Inc. reports earnings for its fourth fiscal quarter on Monday. The following is a summary of key developments and analyst opinion related to the period.

OVERVIEW: During its fourth quarter, the Cupertino, Calif. company experienced the impact of the iPhone and introduced a bevy of new products.

Near the end of the fourth quarter, Apple said it had sold its millionth iPhone. The product, which combines the functions of a touch-screen cell phone, multimedia player and wireless Internet device, went on sale a few days before the quarter began.

Apple angered many iPhone early adopters by cutting its price by $200 a little more than two months after it was released. The company is currently offering some iPhone owners, who bought the product before Aug. 22, an $100 credit toward the purchase of products at its retail stores or online.

Also during the quarter, Apple announced deals with several wireless carriers in Europe and the U.K. to sell the iPhone outside the U.S.

In August, Apple released slimmer and faster iMac computers. Unlike the white plastic body consumers were accustomed to seeing on older iMacs, the new models come in aluminum casings.

Also in August, Apple said it would stop selling NBC Universal television shows through its online iTunes Store. Apple said NBC decided not to renew its agreement with iTunes. Apple added that NBC wanted to raise prices Apple paid for its episodes; NBC has denied Apple's claim.

In September, Apple announced the iPod Touch, which includes most functions of the iPhone but excludes the cell phone capability.

Apple also unveiled a new version of the iPod nano, which comes with an enlarged two-inch screen and supports video playback, and a larger-capacity video iPod that it is calling the iPod Classic.

BY THE NUMBERS: In July, Apple predicted fourth-quarter earnings of about 65 cents per share on revenue of about $5.7 billion.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect Apple to report earnings of 85 cents per share on sales of $6.05 billion.

ANALYST TAKE: In an Oct. 3 client note, Morgan Keegan analyst Tavis C. McCourt predicted that Apple's fourth-quarter sales will beat guidance.

McCourt, who has a "Market Perform" rating on the stock, said his research shows strong demand for new iMacs and iPods.

"We believe something in the 25 percent-ish growth range is reasonable given what appeared to be smooth (product) launches and a weak U.S. currency," he wrote.

In a note to analysts also on Oct. 3, Credit Suisse analyst Robert Semple estimated Apple will report fourth-quarter earnings of 92 cents per share.

The analyst said his research shows customers are "embracing the increased variety" of iPods and estimated Apple will sell 2.1 million computers during the quarter, aided by iPod customers who need new ones. He believes Apple's iPhone shipments for the fiscal year will total 1.17 million.

Semple maintains an "Outperform" rating and $185 target price on Apple shares.

WHAT'S AHEAD: Semple thinks Apple will ship 10 million iPhones in fiscal 2008 and 13.8 million iPhones in fiscal 2009, with almost a third of the units in 2008 sold in Europe.

STOCK PERFORMANCE: Shares of Apple rose about 25 percent during the quarter. In the past year, the stock has traded between $76.77 and $174.19.  

 

obschon RIMM und AAPL gut nebeneinander können, ist ein Vgl immer lohnenswert..

After Hours: 115.00 +0.03 (0.03%)  -  Oct 19, 7:59PM ET  

Apple, Hasbro, Merck, Halliburton
By MarketWatch


AAPL 170.42, -3.08, -1.8%) is forecast to report earnings of 86 cents a share in the fiscal fourth quarter, according to analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial.

......

Analysts: Mac a "powerhouse" for Apple sales in summer quarter

By Aidan Malley
Published: 06:40 PM EST

Apple's upcoming quarterly results report will impress investors with extremely strong Mac shipments as the star of the show, predict research notes from American Technology Research and RBC.

Analyst Mike Abramsky of RBC is particularly aggressive in estimating Apple's success. He argues that the back-to-school season and new iMacs will have given Apple a "powerhouse momentum" in the market, triggering shipments of slightly more than 2.2 million Macs in the summer quarter. The amount would equate to 55 percent more systems sold year-over-year and would represent an all-time high for the company.

Meanwhile, senior analyst Shaw Wu of American Technology Research is more conservative, but still describes Apple as drawing "strength" from the 2.0 million Macs his firm estimated would ship from the Cupertino electronics giant. He shares RBC's general consensus on back-to-school sales but notes that the strong sales show general popularity even at the high end of the Mac product range, rather than a rush to buy computers for dorm rooms.

"Students don't usually load up on $1800-2k Macs," Wu says.

Both are also optimistic about Apple's iPhone shipments. The cellphone's sales have only picked up since the price drop and are said to account for sales above expectations from either investment group, with Wu's firm anticipating 900,000 iPhones sold during the latest quarter and Abramsky calling for 1 million. The launch of the iPod touch has had very little if any effect on iPhone sales, the two researchers say.

The rapid growth in Apple's product lineup has also provided a last-minute boost to Apple's lineup, but has generated unusually balanced sales across the lines, according to the two experts. As with past models, the new iPod nano is described as the clear sales leader; it has been responsible for as much as 50 percent of all iPod sales in the last few weeks of September, Abramsky estimates. Even so, sales of the significantly more costly iPod touch are also particularly strong and should help Apple sell either 9.5 million iPods (according to Wu) or 11 million (Abramsky) during the quarter.

Virtually the only dfference in core beliefs between the researchers is their approach to the conventionally-styled iPod classic, which Wu says is "doing well" while Abramsky claims it has been "waning" as customers are drawn to the iPhone and iPod touch.

RBC's analyst adds that the expected results, however positive, are likely to be muted relative to holiday growth. Many of Apple's most anticipated products -- including Mac OS X Leopard, European iPhones, and a possible subnotebook -- are only predicted to launch during the holiday quarter or shortly afterwards. Apple may have nonetheless boosted some of its sales in Europe simply through the sheer media frenzy surrounding the iPhone.

"Just like iPod growth/penetration aided North American Mac growth, in phone-centric Europe and [internationally], we see the launch and publicity of the iPhone aiding Mac awareness and assisting subsequent market share gains," Abramsky says.  

Hallo,

habe soeben gelesen dass iPhone ab 09.11. zu 399.- netto in allen T-Läden verfügbar ist.
Könnte ein Run im Weihnachtsgeschäft werden.
DTE Long?

Gruss
Tommi  

Apple retail update: 200th store, more to follow

October 26th will mark more than just the release of Mac OS X Leopard: the day will signal the launch of Apple's 200th store and a new wave of retail openings.

   * Wheels in motion for first Australian Apple...
   * Blip: Apple Taiwan opens first retail outfit...

ifo Apple Store has word that Gilbert, Arizona will be home to the symbolic opening at the town's SanTan Village mall.

The location starts business slightly over six years after Apple first began its retail initiative at its Tysons Corner, Virginia location. The Mac maker has since opened a new store an average of nearly every twelve days since, cracking $100 million in 16 months and the $1 billion threshold in just four years, rivaling the same record Old Navy set for a retail opening during the 1990s.

Signs show, however, that the Cupertino firm is far from finished and plans to expand into unfamiliar territory within the next two years.

Besides its first stores in the major urban centers Brooklyn and Washington, DC, Apple is reported to be preparing a Baton Rouge store that would be the first in Louisiana and the only official retail presence for the company along the coastline area between Florida and Texas.

The commitment to stores outside of the US will also be renewed in the near future, according to reports. Vancouver, British Columbia is said to be home to the first known Canadian Apple store West of Ontario in 2009, when finished renovations to the Pacific Centre Mall will allow Apple to set up shop before the end of that year.

Apple is also preparing to break new ground in Australia, says the Sydney Morning Herald. The paper claims that construction has begun on a three-story, 14,370 square foot flagship store at the intersection of King and George that will include a large glass facade and should be ready by mid-2008. A Melbourne store is also said to be in the works and would be teamed up with store-within-a-store project in Myer retail outlets to improve Apple's standing in both cities as well as Brisbane.

British residents should also be treated to at least one major expansion, with Cambridge and its abundant university population receiving an Apple store when the Grand Arcade mall opens in March of next year.  

Auf die Zahlen hin am Montag noch zwei divergierende Analystenmeinungen;

19.10.2007 17:30
Apple Inc.: outperform (RBC Capital Markets)

Rating-Update:

Toronto (aktiencheck.de AG) - Die Analysten von RBC Capital Markets stufen die Aktie von Apple (ISIN US0378331005 (Nachrichten/Aktienkurs)/ WKN 865985) unverändert mit "outperform" ein. Das Kursziel werde von 175 auf 205 USD angehoben. (19.10.2007/ac/a/u)
Analyse-Datum: 19.10.2007

19.10.2007 19:34
Apple: Broker American Technology skeptisch für Dezember-Quartal


Cupertino, California (BoerseGo.de) - Apple (Nachrichten/Aktienkurs) meldet am kommenden Montag zwar erst die Zahlen von seinem September-Quartal, der Broker American Technology Research macht sich aber bereits Gedanken über das Dezember-Quartal. Analyst Shaw Wu befürchtet, dass die Erwartungen des Marktes für das Dezember-Quartal zu hoch sind. Daher dürften die tatsächlichen Apple-Ergebnisse vom Dezember unter dem Konsens liegen. Der Konsens geht von einem Umsatz von 8.6 Milliarden Dollar und einem Gewinn je Aktie von 1.38 Dollar aus. Wu hält aber 8.1 Milliarden Dollar und 1.25 Dollar für wahrscheinlicher. Im aktuellen September-Quartal könne Apple die Konsenserwartungen allerdings erreichen oder sogar übertreffen, glaubt Wu.

Apple bröckelt in einem angeschlagenen Markt 0,07% auf 173.37 Dollar.

Quelle; © BörseGo AG 2007


Schlusskurs Frei. $ 170.32. Entscheiden muss jeder selber für sich, ich pers. bin überzeugt, dass Apple am Montag das beste Ergebnis i.s. Geschichte präsentieren & im Dez. Quartal die Erwartungen wiederum übertreffen wird.

Wir weren es dann sehen.

       

Hi,

sehe ich auch so kauf am Montag Apple vermutlich noch zum Spottpreis.
Das wir die Aktie des Tages.
Von iPhone bereits 2 Millionen Stück produziert, iPhone wird der RUN seit das
Handy erfunden wurde.

Auf Steve Jobbs ist verlass, der kann was.
Ich würde Ihn als Chairman des Jahrtausends wählen.

Grüsse
Tommi  

Analysten-Bewertung - 19.10.07
          §Apple neues Kursziel<-->
                                        §
          §Rating-Update: Toronto (aktiencheck.de AG) - Die Analysten von RBC Capital Markets stufen die Aktie von Apple (<-->/ <-->) unverändert mit "outperform" ein. Das Kursziel werde von 175 auf 205 USD angehoben. (19.10.2007/ac/a/u)
          §Quelle: RBC Capital Markets  

die Analysten auf die kleinen Sachen von Apple, ipod und iphone. Ich denke die Neuerungen bei den Computern sind genauso revolutionär; denn seit auf Apple auch Windows läuft, können sie aus ihrer bisherigen Nische rauskommen und ein richtig großer Computerproduzent werden. Mir ist immer dieser Aspekt am wichtigsten gewesen. Und die Wertschöpfung bei Computern ist sicher bedeutender als bei Kleingeräten, oder? (ich kenn da keine Zahlen).

Man wird bald sehen ob ich mich irre :-)  (kann ja auch sein)

(siehe auch Posting 1096 oben).  

Hab ich auf onvista gefunden:

(...)
Erstmals äußerte sich Obermann offiziell auch zu den Tarifen für das neue Apple-  
Mobiltelefon 'iPhone', dass die Telekom ab Anfang November vermarkten will. Die
Telekom gehe von einer 'ziemlich gewaltigen Nachfrage' aus. 'Das Einsteigerpaket
wird unter 50 Euro pro Monat kosten und schon massig Internet-Surfen
beinhalten.'/mur/he  

Gewinn- und Umsatzsprung erwartet

Der amerikanische Computer- und Unterhaltungselektronik-Hersteller Apple hat nach Ansicht von Analysten im vierten Quartal den Lohn für die Mühen beim multifunktionalen Handy iPhone geerntet. Die 25 von Thomson Financial befragten Experten gehen von einem Umsatzsprung von 4,370 Milliarden Dollar im Vorjahreszeitraum auf nun 6,071 Milliarden Dollar aus. Der Überschuss steigt ihrer Ansicht nach von 472 auf 751 Millionen Dollar, das operative Ergebnis von 566 auf 953 Millionen Dollar. Beim Gewinn je Aktie (verwässert) gehen sie von 86 nach 55 Cent aus. Am Montag legt das Unternehmen seine Zahlen vor.

Apple hatte im vierten Quartal das iPhone eine Million Mal verkauft und damit alle Kritiker eines besseren belehrt, die dem Unternehmen voraussagten, es werde mit der Mischung aus Medienabspielgerät und Telefon eine Bruchlandung erleben. Umgekehrt wurde deutlich, wie übertrieben einige Analystenprognosen waren, die die Millionengrenze schon wenige Tage nach Einführung des Geräts Ende Juni übersprungen sahen.

Verfasst am: 22.10.2007 - 12:13

Quelle; dpa-AFX

Seit den letzten Quartalszahlen ist Apple "bloss" um 19.78 % gestiegen,
wenn Heute Montag nun aber tatsächlich ein Zuwachs des Gewinnes von ca. 37 % bis 75 % gemeldet wird, na....., dämmerts jetzt ?

     
 

kann dir leider keine Sternchen mehr verteilen. (Zuviele in letzter Zeit)

Allerdings macht mir das Umfeld (siehe US-Futures) ernste Sorgen. Da könnte es sein, dass APple Super-Zahlen vorlegt und dennoch vom Gesamtmarkt mit in den Keller gerissen wird.

Hoffen wir das Beste

Casaubon  

ich denke dass Apple heute Nacht sehr volatil auch  die $ 180 zwichenzeitlich erreichen wird,

Schau'n mer mal


http://www.be24.at/blog/entry/10418


Das exellente Apple-Ergebnis wird dem Gesamtmarkt in USA morgen ganz schön wieder auf die Beine helfen, davon bin ich überzeugt.

Vor allem werden die  bedeutenden Zuwächse an MAC-Rechnern starkt unterschätzt vom Markt.

       

Apple CEO says Mac has momentum, is outpacing industry: NY Times

Driven in part by what analysts call a halo effect from the iPod and the iPhone, the market share of Apple Inc.'s (AAPL:
Apple Inc

AAPL 170.42, -3.08, -1.8%) personal computers is surging and Steven P. Jobs, Apple's chief executive, said the Macintosh has "momentum," the New York Times reported on its Web site Monday.
Two research firms that track the computer market said last week that Apple would move into third place in the U.S. behind Hewlett-Packard Co.



DELL 27.92, -1.21, -4.1%) on Monday, when it reports product shipments in the fiscal fourth-quarter as part of its earnings announcement, the Times reported.
"The Macintosh has a lot of momentum now," Jobs told the Times in a telephone interview last week. "It is outpacing the industry."
On Friday, Apple will start selling the new Leopard version of its OS X operating system, which has a range of features that in some cases match those in Microsoft Corp's (MSFT:

MSFT 30.17, -0.99, -3.2%) Windows Vista and in others surpass them, the Times reports.
Jobs told the Times that Leopard would anchor a schedule of product upgrades that could continue for as long as a decade.
"I'm quite pleased with the pace of new operating systems every 12 to 18 months for the foreseeable future," he said, according to the Times. "We've put out major releases on the average of one a year, and it's given us the ability to polish and polish and improve and improve."  

... werden wir deine 180 ("ich denke dass Apple heute Nacht sehr volatil auch  die $ 180 zwichenzeitlich erreichen wird,") noch vor Börsenschluss erleben.

Das ist mir schon ein bisschen unheimlich. Meine Scheinchen laufen und laufen - beängstigend gut und sviel zu schnell.  

22.10.2007 17:18
Apple Inc.: outperform (Credit Suisse Group )

Rating-Update:

Zürich (aktiencheck.de AG) - Die Analysten der Credit Suisse stufen die Aktie von Apple (ISIN US0378331005 (Nachrichten/Aktienkurs)/ WKN 865985) unverändert mit "outperform" ein. Das Kursziel werde bei 185 USD gesehen. In Form starker Quartalszahlen mit Umsätzen von 6,3 Mrd. USD und einem EPS von 0,92 USD dürfte Apple dem Markt ein Geschenk bereiten. (22.10.2007/ac/a/u)

Analyse-Datum: 22.10.2007

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/...ichten-2007-10/artikel-9276902.asp

Quelle; aktiencheck.de

     

 

Servus Miteinander,

wünsche allen Investierten, ob Trader oder Longi maximale Quartalszahlen!

Hoffe auf ein EPS um die 0,96USD - 2,10Mio verkaufte MacSysteme, 1,3Mio verkaufte iPhones seit dem Verkaufsstart und einen Umsatz von 6,08Mrd.USD.

Warten wir ab was passiert - schade ist das uns die Märkte mal wieder einen Strich durch die Rechnung gemacht haben. Warten wir auf die nachbörslichen Zahlen! Übrigens ab 23.00Uhr geht es pünktlich mit dem Start des CC los - sicher sehr hörenswert.

cultom  

 

Ja, es ist wie Weihnachten, Apple expodiert, aktuell nachbörslich bei $ 184

             
 

 

bin wieder da. Vergesst mein posting #1122.
Hatte was verwechselt.  

22.10.2007 - 22:43
   
          § Cupertino (BoerseGo.de) – Der Computerhersteller Apple hat im eigenen vierten Quartal seinen Nettogewinn um 67 Prozent steigern können. Das Ergebnis stieg von 542 auf 904 Millionen Dollar oder von 62 Cent auf 1,01 Dollar pro Aktie im Vorjahresvergleich. Der Umsatz legte um 28,5 Prozent von 4,84 auf 6,22 Milliarden Dollar zu. Befragte Analysten hatten mit einem Gewinn von 86 Cent je Aktie und einem Umsatz von 6,07Milliarden Dollar gerechnet. Das Unternehmen setzte 2,16 Millionen Macintosh-PCs und 1,11 Millionen iPhones ab.

Apple gewinnt nachbörslich  auf  184.68 Dollar.
 
Quelle; © BörseGo AG 2007