Aixtron purpose of this thread

Baggo, ich grüße Dich. Deine Rechnung setzt natürlich voraus, dass " Perpetual Limited" am 28. Februar noch bei den 3,65% lag, was wir aber nicht wissen (hätten an dem Tag auch 3,01% gewesen sein können). Aber dass in den Tagen vor den Zahlen und am Tag der Zahlen viel verkauft wurde, ist ja unbestritten und letzten Endes ist es dann mE auch egal, wer das war.

Ansonsten notiert die Aktie gerade auf dem Level vom August 2021, sprich: fast drei Jahre tolle operative Entwicklung quasi zunichte gemacht bzw. Stillstand im Aktienkurs trotz boomender Märkte. In der Gesamtschau schon recht ernüchternd bzw. enttäuschend. Damals lag übrigens der Konsensus für den 2023er Umsatz so zwischen 450 und 500 Mio Euro, geworden sind es dann 630 Mio Euro. Lässt das ganze noch enttäuschender aussehen.

Aber gut, dieses selektive Heraussuchen von einzelnen Daten & Kursen eignen sich für ein ran-Sat1-Datenfuchs-Posting wie dieses hier, aber bringen meistens wenig :-)    

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nc/charlotte/news/...g-site--gives-tour

Wolfseepd up 4.5% today, Aixtron down 5%.  Tales of twin cities. Go figure.  

Here an article by the magazine Der Aktionär

https://www-deraktionaer-de.translate.goog/...k7Qp9WrWJMQJHp7LjsMpSV9

The fact  that Wolfspeed will seek for a second supplier is not surprising. It's normal.
But I am surprised by the statement that  "batch production is allegedly not suitable for 200mm wafers" and. therefore. Aix might lose Wolfspeed as a customer. How does that fit?!  

There has recently been speculation in financial circles that Aixtron could lose both Wolfspeed as a customer in the business with systems for the production of silicon carbide (SiC) components because batch production is allegedly not suitable for 200mm wafers. The speculation is allegedly based on public statements made by the former CTO of Wolfspeed a few months ago.

The former CTO of Wolfspeed is John Palmer who passed away in November 2022. The new and current CTO is Elif Balkas who was appointed in Jan. 2023.

That raises the question of the accuracy of that rumer.

 

Batch reactor is just a general term.  There are many types of CVD batch reactor.

Aixtron's planetary reactor is batch reactor type but unique with each wafer rotating and controlled independently to generate single wafer reactor-like quality.  

It is generally known that Aixtron did not win the majority of the  6"/150mm SiC epi tool business in CREE/Wolfspeed based on the G5 WW C reactor design.  The single wafer tool reactors by LPE, Nuflare, etc. and mostly LPE have that business.  Nuflare is also know to have had relatively small production capability.

That changed when Wolfspeed goes 8"/200m by starting to create the massive Mohawk fab.  The new Mohawk plant being constructed and ramped needs 8" epi wafer supplies.  Wolfspeed selected Aixtron new G10-SiC for its 200mm/8" capability in March 2022.  Initially, the Aixtron's G10-SiC went to  Wolfspeed's epi wafer facilities in Duram also known as building 10.  At the same time, Wolfspeed started  constructing the John Palmer (JP) material fab in NC that will do both 8" crystal growth and epi wafers.

The JP and Mohawk plants plants are on 8" SiC only.  In the mean time, most of Wolfspeed's current SiC businesses are 6" SiC. Why didn't Aixtron win Wolfspeed's 6" SiC business? And is it possibel that Aixtron's G10-SiC will penetrate Wolfspeed's 6"?

According to Felix, Aixtron's G10-SiC has now closed the 6" performance gap. Notice that the emphasis is on the 150mm. G10-SiC is now also competive at 6" against the incumbent 6" epi tools.

From the Q3-23 CC:
For the G10-SiC, our new tool for the Silicon Carbide material system which we have
launched last year, we receive a continuous strong flow of orders. From all our
existing high volume customers, we have received repeat orders in the past quarters,
and we have strengthened our competitive position by making further progress in
terms of uniformity performance. We are now achieving uniformities on par with –
and in some cases even better than – single-wafer tools. In 200mm we had reached
this already earlier. For the 150mm wafer size, we have fully closed the uniformity
gap in the past quarter. Based on this, we can now fully focus on the advantages of
our planetary reactor on productivity and cost. The batch offers inherent advantages
in these two dimensions, and we continue to win new accounts for our technology.
This will turn into revenue in the quarters to come.

 

https://www.yolegroup.com/strategy-insights/...the-microled-industry/

The center of gravity of the microLED industry is moving toward Taiwan, with the AUO / PlayNitride / Ennostar ecosystem becoming the new de-facto microLED champion. Other players in Taiwan (Innolux / Foxconn) and in China could take advantage of the vacuum created after Apple’s project implosion.

It would, of course, be foolish to discount China. The number of microLED patents filed over the last three years by companies such as BOE, TCL-CSOT, and Vistar is absolutely staggering (More details in the coming MicroLED 2024 Intellectual Property Landscape report). China shares a common ground with Taiwan in the sense that microLED would level the playing field compared to OLED, where it is playing catch up with Korea. BOE recently spent $300M to acquire LED makers HC-Semitek, with all the proceeds of the transaction going toward building a 150 mm microLED fab. Vistar, an offshoot of OLED maker Visionox, has started on the construction of a $413M TFT microLED fab, with the first $150M phase scheduled to ramp at the end of 2024. Although the schedule is a bit aggressive, in Yole Group’s opinion, it shows the determination of Chinese players.

 

Dr. Felix Grawert, Q4/23 CC:

And based on this very wide spread of applications, we see, again, new entrants coming into this market, companies who -- some of them who is very large as a company, now starting and taking on gallium nitride efforts. We have seen in the Q4 even companies entering the gallium nitride, large companies entering newly into gallium nitride at the first shot, right, with big orders, very big orders. So the gallium nitride trend we can see is really having a momentum, a strong momentum and a continuing momentum.
-----------------------------------------
From Indeed jobs site:

Epitaxy Hardware and Operations Manager- job post
Google

Fremont, CA
Full-time
Google
Fremont, CA

15 years of experience in III-V epitaxy operations, manufacturing or development leadership.
5 years of experience in statistical process control, scaling manufacturing and yield improvement in III-V epitaxy or III-V fabrication, especially GaN and related materials.  

Manager

WoooooooW

Great find CWL1
That is indeed a very large customer and hopefully they will place very large orders with Aixtron.

Please keep up your excellent research!!!

Best regards
 baggo-mh

 

interesting statement for the source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4681431-universal-display-corporation-stock-growth-set-to-return-but-risks-should-consider-maintain-hold?mailingid=34879385&messageid=2800&serial=34879385.334&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=34879385.334

However, the LCD market is expected to undergo radical changes in the coming years. LCD displays are set to become more advanced in many areas, which will either narrow the gap with OLED displays, if not surpass them. For instance, TVs utilizing miniLED panels are expected to compete vigorously against OLED TVs, which is why the miniLED market is expected to record explosive growth.

Some of the more optimistic reports, for instance, predict the miniLED market will grow at a CAGR of 78.3% from $0.87B to almost $160B in 2024-2032. One company that has thrown its weight behind miniLED is Apple (AAPL), which has started to use miniLED in its high-end tablets, starting with the iPad Pro 12.9" and its Liquid Retina XDR display.

Another potential challenger to OLED that could chip away at its market share is microLED. MicroLED has the potential to surpass OLED in both picture quality and power consumption in particular, which are the two main attributes that have enabled the rise of OLED versus LCD. This reduced power consumption is why the wearable and the mobile market in general has become very interested in microLED.

On the other hand, microLED is further away from commercial adoption than miniLED. Apple, for instance, recently canceled internal development of microLED screens for the Apple Watch, although Apple is still expected to source microLED screens when they become available from other manufacturers. MicroLED has so much potential that there are very optimistic industry forecasts regarding microLED. Some reports go so far as to predict the microLED market will grow at a CAGR of 73% from virtually nothing in 2023 to $150B in 2033.

Gruß
 baggo-mh

 

Thanks for always good research from some users of the Wallstreet Online forum. We were called congenial research team.

They read here but have no Ariva acount to comment.

Greetings
 baggo-mh

 

Very happy to!  

Texas Instruments Plans Large-Scale Transition of GaN Chip Production from 6-inch to 8-inch Wafers
2024-03-25  Semiconductors

https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/03/25/...-inch-to-8-inch-wafers/  

Aixtron published its new SiC thickness and doping uniformity data for G10-SiC at its website. The new improvements come from this multi-jet gas injector.

Felix reported the new improvements at the Q3-23 CC and said the data would be published soon.

Comparing the new data with those reported by LPE and Nuflare, indeed the G10-SiC is the best.
 

Nuflare: Excellent uniformity(σ/mean) Thickness uniformity : < 2 % (E.E=5 mm) Doping uniformity : < 5 % (E.E.=5 mm)

From above, Aixtron's thickness and doping uniformities (sigma/mean)  are both < 1% for the 200mm.

https://www.nuflare.co.jp/english/products/epitaxial/epirevo_s8/  

Nuflare: Excellent uniformity(σ/mean)
Thickness uniformity : < 2 %
(E.E=3 mm)
Doping uniformity : < 4 %
(E.E.=6 mm)

Aixtron (150mm):
thickness uniformity <1.2%
doping uniformity < 1.3%.

https://www.nuflare.co.jp/english/products/epitaxial/epirevo_s6/  

LPE: Excellent thickness control <1% and dopant uniformity <2%.  

LPE does not separate the data for 150 or 200mm wafers so it is hard to compare the thickness uniformity with G10-SiC; they probably have similar performance.  As for the doping uniformity the G10-SiC is definitely better.  

https://www.asm.com/our-technology-products/...106a-pe108-sic-epitaxy  

Comparing these old data from Aixtron with the new, the improvements are clear

 

Hi all,

I have been a bit in the background in the past months, so its time for an update and I have added to my position recently.

I wanted to share some thoughts on valuation of the stock.
- I think the share price decline after the Q4 results and the AMS/Osram Micro-LED issues can be well understood, the market worried about the lack of order intake guidance, a wide revenue guidance range for 2024 and a general perceived weakness in EV demand (look at Teslas Q1 delivieries, look at the slower production rates of German OEMs in Germany etc).
- Consensus EBIT expectations for 2024 have declined from ca. € 188m to now € 168m, a decline of -11%. The share price declined by -26% (!) since the results and -40% YTD (!!). Consensus now expects 2024 sales of € 677m, at the 168m EBIT that implies a 25% margin, both - sales and EBIT margin - are just at the mid-point of the guided range of 630-720m and 24-26%.
- Given the CEO comments during the Q4 call "with the current project pipeline we aim for the upper end of the range" as well as Aixtrons history over the last 3-4 years (raising / narrowing guidance with Q3 results at the latest), I think that the current consensus estimates seem fair, or said differently, are less at risk of further downgrades. Therefor, lets look at valuation.

- Looking at Aixtrons trading multiple I always focus on EV/EBIT. Historically the stock traded in a range of 18-20x. So where does it trade today?
- The EV is market cap - net debt. The market cap at € 23.20 share price is € 2.6bn, there is no debt but € 182m cash, so the EV is € 2.43bn. At consensus EBIT of € 168m, the multiple is 14.5x 2024e EV/EBIT. With the EBIT estimate somewhat de-risked as we discussed above.

- Given that I am a longer-term Shareholder, I would even dare to look at the 2025 multiple, which of course is lower, given that the CEO indicated his expectation for double digit revenue growth and I expect EBIT margin improvement due to better product mix (more SIC/GAN vs. traditional LED business). On top, Free cash flow should improve as the large capex project for the new cleanroom is concluded. I would guess a 2025e EV/EBIT multiple of around 12.5x at least.

However, we need a catalyst for the stock to really recover. And here is the bad news, I dont think that the Q1 results, due end of April, will provide that catalyst just yet - maybe rather a negative catalyst - at least I would not rule that out! I think Q1 orders may well be weaker and that can add to the fear around the EV slowdown etc. Lets hope that Management can provide some more optimism about the project pipeline.
But at some point, that should be priced in at these share price levels.

Just looking at the share price chart, I would clearly hope that the stock does not break below the € 20 mark, but that is hard to say. Given that I remain convinced of the potential for SIC and GAN (and eventually MicroLED) I regard those levels as further buying opportunities.

One last word: Another negative is the fact that the long-time IR has left to pursue new opportunities, the new IR only starts in April/May.. the previous person had a lot of trust in the market and was strong in communication. So there is some vaccum in that area as well.

Keen to hear your thoughts and additions.

Best regards,
Fel


 

Thanks for the TI article. That business is definitily coming Aixtron's way.

The analysis on SiC uniformity is also very interesting and confirms thc statements Felx made during a call on a question from Olivia Honeychurch from Jeffries

Taking about jeffries: 

Jefferies

Aktienanalyse 2. April 2024

Bedenken hinsichtlich eines SiC-Aktienverlusts unbegründet: Die jüngste Investorendebatte konzentrierte sich auf Aktienverluste bei WOLF und ON, die unserer Meinung nach unbegründet sind. Nach unserem besten Wissen bleibt Aixtron aufgrund der geringeren Kosten pro Wafer und der vergleichbaren Einheitlichkeit, die ihr Batch-Prozessor im Vergleich zu Einzelwafer-Werkzeugen bietet, der Hauptlieferant von MOCVD für beide. Wir stellen außerdem fest, dass die Planetentechnologie von Aixtron über 20 Jahre alt ist und daher in der großvolumigen, gleichmäßigen Epitaxie sehr ausgereift ist, insbesondere im Vergleich zu den neueren Plattformen der Wettbewerber. Wir gehen davon aus, dass der Anteil von Aixtron bis Ende des Geschäftsjahres 25 die 50-Prozent-Marke überschreiten wird, unterstützt durch Gewinne bei weiteren Big-5-Kunden sowie SiC-Herausforderern wie Samsung, Bosch, Mitsubishi Electric, Foxconn und einigen chinesischen Marktteilnehmern.

LED-Segment soll dieses Jahr stark wachsen: Trotz Bedenken dass Aixtron vom Rückzug von Apple betroffen sein wird microLED, mgmt hat diese Einnahmen kürzlich bekräftigt soll im GJ24 auf einen „hohen zweistelligen Mio.-Euro-Betrag“ ansteigen.Basierend auf unserer Schätzung für das Geschäftsjahr 23 von 50 Mio. € bedeutet dies 30-40 % Wachstum. Stärke kommt von neuen/bestehenden Kunden Aufbau von Pilotlinien, zu denen unserer Meinung nach Sony gehört,

Samsung, Playnitride und andere. Inzwischen hat Aixtron sagte, dass die Mini-LED-Umsätze ein ähnliches Niveau erreichen sollten microLED in diesem Jahr, da sich der Endmarkt erholt. Unsere Prognosen gehen von einem Umsatz von 25 Mio. € für das Geschäftsjahr 24 aus sehen konservativ aus.

Konnte den Jeffries Artikel leider nur in deutsch hier einstellen.

Gruß
baggo-mh 

 

Hier noch die Antwort der IR von Aixtron, auf die Gerüchte zu den verlorenen Kunden

vielen Dank für Ihre Frage.

Es ist für uns nicht einfach zu Gerüchten Stellung zu nehmen, die eher unspezifisch und keiner konkreten Quelle zuzuordnen sind.

Wir können unsererseits feststellen:

- Wir gewinnen neue Kunden im Siliziumkarbid-Bereich und sehen nicht, dass wir bei bestehenden Kunden Anteile verlieren; wir erwarten, dass wir unseren Marktanteil weiter ausbauen werden.
- Wir haben positive Rückmeldungen von Wolfspeed und OnSemi erhalten.
- Zur ebenfalls kolportierten Frage der Eignung für größere 8‘‘ Wafer: Der G10 SiC wurde zunächst für 200 mm (8‘‘) Wafer entwickelt - später wurde er (sozusagen rückwärts) auf kleinere 150 mm Wafer erweitert.

Ich hoffe, dies ist hilfreich.  

minimale Auswirkungen auf die Produktionskapazitäten berichten Foxconn und TSMC - Laut Markus Koch.

Gruß
baggo-mh

 

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. You are voicing a lot of concerns.

"However, we need a catalyst for the stock to really recover."

There are 2 catalyst imho that could help the stock to recover:
1.) Norrowing the guidance range with the publication of the Q1 results
2.) Announcement of another Top5 SiC customer win (Infineon or STMicro)  

Like you I am in it for the long run.

Greetings
 baggo-mh

 

Taiwanischer Chiphersteller TSMC nimmt Produktion nach Erdbeben wieder auf

https://de.marketscreener.com/kurs/aktie/TAIWAN-SEMICONDUCTO…

Ganz im Gegensatz zu dem was N-TV gerade immer noch verbreitet.

Gruß
 baggo-mh

 

im Nachbar Forum hat jemand das Thema Übernahme Kandidat angerissen .
Wie ist deine Meinung dazu ?  
So eine  Übernahme Fantasie würde dem Kurs auch gut tun .. und liegt eigentlich auf der Hand .
Die Chinesen dürfen ja nicht ...

LG derkralle